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Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco


Hoosier

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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The Euro is looking far less optimistic on a very snowy later half of next week compared to past few GFS runs.  Let's hope the GFS is correct in sniffing out a nice storm in that time period.  It has been fairly consistent up to this point in showing something around then.

Pretty surprising to see it basically disappear. It will probably be back on the 12z run.

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The Euro is looking far less optimistic on a very snowy later half of next week compared to past few GFS runs.  Let's hope the GFS is correct in sniffing out a nice storm in that time period.  It has been fairly consistent up to this point in showing something around then.
That run is a clinic on how to suppress/shred every threat with too much fast flow northern stream dominance and high pressure. Just by comparing the Euro and 00z GFS you can see how the TPV lobes extend farther south on the Euro, compressing the flow too much. Hopefully the ensembles still remain more optimistic.

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3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

That run is a clinic on how to suppress/shred every threat with too much fast flow northern stream dominance and high pressure. Just by comparing the Euro and 00z GFS you can see how the TPV lobes extend farther south on the Euro, compressing the flow too much. Hopefully the ensembles still remain more optimistic.

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Been my worry all along, last period we were lucky enough to get a couple of systems out of it but that was basically being shown ahead of the last cold snap as well. We need to flush this -EPO/+PNA pattern or we will be fighting this all winter

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Been my worry all along, last period we were lucky enough to get a couple of systems out of it but that was basically being shown ahead of the last cold snap as well. We need to flush this -EPO/+PNA pattern or we will be fighting this all winter

This isn't a +PNA being modeled moving forward unlike what we just had, it's more of a neutral to -PNA (also shown on EPS teleconnection forecasts on WxBell). The extreme -EPO blocking will dislodge lobes of the TPV and we just need them to not crush everything south, to allow for lower amplitude semi- zonal flow. Functionally though, what the 00Z ECMWF op shows acts like a +PNA because of the crusher PV lobes. A -EPO is preferable if everything else can evolve favorably because of the cold air it supplies. The 00z Euro is a great demonstration of how everything can go wrong though.

 

 

 

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

This isn't a +PNA being modeled moving forward unlike what we just had, it's more of a neutral to -PNA (also shown on EPS teleconnection forecasts on WxBell). The extreme -EPO blocking will dislodge lobes of the TPV and we just need them to not crush everything south, to allow for lower amplitude semi- zonal flow. Functionally though, what the 00Z ECMWF op shows acts like a +PNA because of the crusher PV lobes.

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Yeah it isn't as off the wall of a +PNA, which is why the models keep wavering with something for our region. We need the PNA to go full on negative.

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

This isn't a +PNA being modeled moving forward unlike what we just had, it's more of a neutral to -PNA (also shown on EPS teleconnection forecasts on WxBell). The extreme -EPO blocking will dislodge lobes of the TPV and we just need them to not crush everything south, to allow for lower amplitude semi- zonal flow. Functionally though, what the 00Z ECMWF op shows acts like a +PNA because of the crusher PV lobes.

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So basically too much extreme cold pushing everything south? And too much downstream confluence for storm systems?

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Yeah it isn't as off the wall of a +PNA, which is why the models keep wavering with something for our region. We need the PNA to go full on negative.
Agree, a full blown -PNA would be better, though there the concern would be too dominant of a southeast Ridge, but it's worth the risk to get the bigger systems. It's a delicate balancing act. Not gonna get hopeless over 1 Euro run, because it could easily go back to a more favorable flow pattern next week the next run.

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4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Agree, a full blown -PNA would be better, though there the concern would be too dominant of a southeast Ridge, but it's worth the risk to get the bigger systems. It's a delicate balancing act. Not gonna get hopeless over 1 Euro run, because it could easily go back to a more favorable flow pattern next week the next run.

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I would take every chance in the world on a -PNA, most of our big dogs come out of a -PNA and an open gulf. I mean I had 8 inches of snow in my yard at one point and it blasted away to nothing within 2 days because lack of moisture in it. Fluffy snow isn't good to build up a snow base.

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8 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Sam Lashley inserting a little humor into his afternoon discussion concerning late next week:


Day 7 thru 9 looking potentially interesting with possible southern
stream wave lifting northeast with residual arctic air still in 
place. This has actually led to the more brief intrusion of the 
very cold arctic air with slight moderating trend Tue into Wed in
the GEM and GFS. Still a lot to digest and GEM showing potential 
for a northwest track that might yield some type of liquid pcpn 
across the area. However, ECMWF says what system with a very weak
and suppressed look. For now, remember the plinko game and think 
of it as you look at these solutions and the output that will 
likely be coming to your favorite social media sites shortly.

That's seriously what the love the most about NWS AFDs.

 

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Just now, snowlover2 said:

12z GFS has 2 waves. A small one around the 28th and a big one gets going a day later both brush the far southern parts of the sub. 12z GGEM also has 2 waves but both are way south.

It also cuts off the primary energy and retrogrates it SWward toward the Baja peninsula. Doesnt appear that it ever fully ejects.

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