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Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco


Hoosier

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I am a little more interested in that Friday-Saturday clipper threat now.  GFS holding steady and Euro/ensembles also with some hints.  It will be moisture-starved as every clipper is, but both models today really drop in a very potent vort max with it (with origins straight from the pole) and it could be a dynamic little system.  Still a ton of time to evaluate though.  

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3 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I am a little more interested in that Friday-Saturday clipper threat now.  GFS holding steady and Euro/ensembles also with some hints.  It will be moisture-starved as every clipper is, but both models today really drop in a very potent vort max with it (with origins straight from the pole) and it could be a dynamic little system.  Still a ton of time to evaluate though.  

Agree. I've been thinking overperformer since yesterday, at least in a narrow band.

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8 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Agree. I've been thinking overperformer since yesterday, at least in a narrow band.

Usual caveats apply with it being 6 days out, with the energy not yet really sampled and needing the ridge out west to be amped enough.  Interestingly enough, tracing back the energy on the GFS, it appears that the little vort max/tropopause fold responsible for the potential clipper (more of a Manitoba Mauler) is spinning around near the northern coast of Greenland at the moment.  It gradually gets caught up in the developing trough over the eastern half of Canada and then shoots south Thursday on the backside of the very amped west coast ridge.  If such a dynamic system verifies though someone will likely get more than the typical 1-3" a clipper drrops. 

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21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z GFS looks interesting with the late week system.  It's almost like a double clipper setup as there's some initial energy that moves in followed by much more diving in from Canada.  

That could be an epic LES band off of southern Lake Michigan too, which this run of the GFS is hinting at.  Full fetch down the lake with an upstream connection to Superior and the inversion height is like 20,000 feet.  

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That could be an epic LES band off of southern Lake Michigan too, which this run of the GFS is hinting at.  Full fetch down the lake with an upstream connection to Superior and the inversion height is like 20,000 feet.  

Yeah, that sounding has steep lapse rates and is saturated up to the tropopause at around 450mb.  Probably a bit of snow if that verified. 

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Both of those winters featured significant upper Midwest tornado outbreaks in January, and both portended an active spring season for the region as well.

That was the winter before that had the significant outbreak in January.  December 1967 had some significant severe weather though, but the pattern going forward this month looks just a bit hostile for severe weather in our region.

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Somewhat hopeful signs on the ensembles in the long range (day 11-15). Through next week, the western ridge axis looks to be set up too far east to likely preclude anything other than light to moderate clippers and obviously LES. The following week, all the ensembles are showing higher heights in the south while poleward ridging to Alaska and north continues. This could open the door to a more active pattern if it happens, particularly if the western ridge can retrograde off the coast.

On recent runs of the ensembles, the GEFS has been showing this ridge retrogression, even trending to a lower PNA as southeast ridging builds. The other ensembles (EPS, GEPS) still keep the western ridging farther east than we'd like, but if the eastern trough does indeed relax some as they're showing in the means, that could set up a more favorable pattern for stronger/more moist clippers/hybrids. Would like to see the GEFS hold onto its look and the EPS and GEPS trend toward it over the next few days.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

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17 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Ricky, I hope you're right about the ensembles, because through day ten, the Euro just keep dumping buckets of cold air on us with no chance of any moisture laden storms.

 

GFS seems to agree. At least the OP had a decent system around the solstice before another big cold dump.

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18 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Ricky, I hope you're right about the ensembles, because through day ten, the Euro just keep dumping buckets of cold air on us with no chance of any moisture laden storms.

 

ecmwf_t2m_anom_greatlakes_240.png

Not overally optimistic about the pattern over the next 10 days. Only real threat at this point are strung out, moisture starved clippers that may at best deliver 2-3" locally. Until we see the trough shift a bit further west and allow some small ridging to form in the SE, its going to be hard to get any sort of phasing or storms in the area. I do expect a more typical Nina like pattern to return beyond Christmas, as the MJO wave dies down. But let's see. As always, it's the NE benefiting again from this pattern again, ugh!! 

 

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10 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Don't tell me you actually watched the post 240 hour GFS? I don't even go beyond 144 hrs due to poor verification, but after this post, I had to go watch the evolution...............

 

Not saying I buy it just that at least it's selling something around the time when the pattern becomes a bit more zonal.

More interested in the Tuesday system which has been evolving a bit more favourably at least for eastern parts of the sub. 

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1 hour ago, Jonger said:

I don't even look at the Euro anymore. The GFS does a good job and it's far more detailed and longer range.

At least without looking all over the dark web for content.

Here

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php

The amount of fields is somewhat limited, but better than nothing.  

This one has more:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/temperatur-f.html

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2 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Yeah, it was a LES pattern for sure. Looks like the ridge will breakdown after the 15th. Here is to some synoptic events the 2nd half of December.

Yep, it seems likely that we will lose the persistent deep eastern trough.  That does bring some mild risks but it would open the door to better systems.  

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3 hours ago, Jonger said:

I don't even look at the Euro anymore. The GFS does a good job and it's far more detailed and longer range.

At least without looking all over the dark web for content.

Yeah don't use the model that statistically is more correct consistently, you'd rather enjoy being lied to. :lol:

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 "Yep, it seems likely that we will lose the persistent deep eastern trough.  That does bring some mild risks but it would open the door to better systems. " 

 

Down in these parts I'll take clippers over over SW swingers, especially in Dec.  We run into to many white knuckle mixing issues, especially the last few winters.

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2 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

 "Yep, it seems likely that we will lose the persistent deep eastern trough.  That does bring some mild risks but it would open the door to better systems. " 

 

Down in these parts I'll take clippers over over SW swingers, especially in Dec.  We run into to many white knuckle mixing issues, especially the last few winters.

You are absolutely right, but after the past two winters, I'm ready to roll the dice on a chance at the big dog.

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