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November 5th, 2017 Severe Weather Event


IllinoisWedges

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Replacement watch coming for southern IN/OH.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1761
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0458 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2017

   Areas affected...central and southern Indiana through central and
   southern Ohio

   Concerning...Tornado Watch
511...

   Valid 052258Z - 060000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 511 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for severe storms is expected to persist into the
   evening. The primary risk should transition to damaging wind, but a
   couple of tornadoes will remain possible. Therefore tornado watch
   511 is expected to be replaced by another WW before its expiration
   time of 00Z.

   DISCUSSION...Quasi-linear bands of storms persist from a part of
   southern IN through central OH. Latest objective analysis shows
   MLCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg in this region with weaker
   instability with eastward extent into OH. A southwesterly low-level
   jet will strengthen to near 60 kt this evening within pre-frontal
   warm sector in association with corridor of height falls
   accompanying a progressive shortwave trough. Thus large 0-2 km
   hodographs and strong deep layer shear will continue to support the
   potential for embedded organized structures within the quasi-linear
   convective bands. Despite increasingly marginal instability, the
   strong kinematic environment will maintain some risk for organized
   severe storms including bowing segments and embedded supercell
   structures into the evening.

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 11/05/2017

 

mcd1761.gif

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18 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Likely sig damaging winds on the S side of the metro now with that MCV/outflow surge.

I was north of the outflow surge by a few miles but still had gusts to probably about 50 and the power tried going out.  I have a number of friends and family in northern Summit County who don't have power after that. 

Edit: some rumors of possible tornado damage along I-90 just east of Cleveland near the local Fox station. 

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Just east of me.

 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
623 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Clark County in west central Ohio...
  Central Madison County in central Ohio...

* Until 700 PM EST.

* At 623 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Choctaw Lake, moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  London, Jefferson, West Jefferson, Choctaw Lake, Lake Darby,
  Brighton, Lafayette, Interstate 70 at US Route 42, Interstate 70 at
  State Route 56, Lilly Chapel, State Route 29 at State Route 38 and
  Plumwood.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 68 and 86.

 

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New t-storm watch.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 515
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   630 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
     Southern Indiana
     Extreme northern Kentucky
     Southwestern Ohio

   * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 630 PM
     until 100 AM EST.

   * Primary threats include...
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Storms are in the process of congealing into more linear
   structures and this should persist into the early overnight hours
   along a cold front.  There will be the possibility of a tornado or
   two in the next couple of hours will lingering supercell structures
   or embedded circulations within the line.  However, occasional
   damaging gusts will be the primary threat before the storms weaken
   toward 05-06z.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
   statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south
   southwest of Bloomington IN to 30 miles east southeast of Columbus
   OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
   outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

 

ww0515_radar.gif

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56 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

NWS early reporting for Celina Ohio tornado of an EF1.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
550 PM EST SUN NOV 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TORNADO          E CELINA                40.55N 84.57W
11/05/2017  F1               MERCER             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 8 INJ *** EAST SIDE OF TOWN IN THE BUSINESS DISTRICT.
            ESTIMATED EF1 APPROXIMATELY 200 YARDS WIDE. SEVERAL
            BUSINESSES DAMAGED, SOME WITH ROOFS OFF. OVER 100
            VEHICLES DAMAGED, SOME WITH WINDOWS BLOWN OUT.


&&

$$

JOHNF
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2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I got in behind it at the Jay/Blackford County line. It was so rain-wrapped from my position that I couldn't get any pictures, then got slowed down by debris, trees in the road and stopping to check for injuries.  Here are a few pics that my brother and I took. it missed his house by less than 2 miles.

 

23131743_1857213110985347_4659388889126140656_n.jpg

IMG_0390.JPG

Wow close call for him glad he was ok.  Yep this thing, if it was occasionally on the ground, was rain wrapped until it got into south central Blackford county.  Ran into those exact conditions you did.  Kinda disappointed I didn't stick with it longer, I stopped about a mile or 2 from Jay county.  Was a bit overly cautious because of the very heavy precip and the fact I had my better half with me on her first chase, who btw wants to go again tomorrow lol, big surprise there..  No way was I going to push it.  We were right behind the couplet for awhile but just couldn't see because of the rain.  As the couplet intensified on radar we had to re-route due to a big tree across the road.  Got back on its tail in the vicinity of Hartford city but it had moved easily 2 or 3 miles ahead.  Took us a while to get home because of downed trees and power lines and flooded roads all the way back to 13 in northern Madison county.

  Best shot I have of it, not much lol,  just as it was maybe crossing into Jay county, a mile or 2 away...

large.1105171315.jpg.77967e32f16302d75d1d33c20f36d137.jpg

Did stop to help these folks look for their dog.  The guy had a pretty nasty cut on his hand.  He was trying to get his dog inside and that shed hit him and the dog and rolled them all into the field. That shed was originally under the tree that fell to the left.  I'd say he was pretty damn lucky.  They said it touched down about 1/4 - 1/2 mile to the west of them, didn't even see it coming....

large.1105171352.jpg.5bc1caacc0dbe0b99f8f4b8f883f116b.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Wow close call for him glad he was ok.  Yep this thing, if it was occasionally on the ground, was rain wrapped until it got into south central Blackford county.  Ran into those exact conditions you did.  Kinda disappointed I didn't stick with it longer, I stopped about a mile or 2 from Jay county.  Was a bit overly cautious because of the very heavy precip and the fact I had my better half with me on her first chase, who btw wants to go again tomorrow lol, big surprise there..  No way was I going to push it.  We were right behind the couplet for awhile but just couldn't see because of the rain.  As the couplet intensified on radar we had to re-route due to a big tree across the road.  Got back on its tail in the vicinity of Hartford city but it had moved easily 2 or 3 miles ahead.  Took us a while to get home because of downed trees and power lines and flooded roads all the way back to 13 in northern Madison county.

  Best shot I have of it, not much lol,  just as it was maybe crossing into Jay county, a mile or 2 away...

large.1105171315.jpg.77967e32f16302d75d1d33c20f36d137.jpg

Did stop to help these folks look for their dog.  The guy had a pretty nasty cut on his hand.  He was trying to get his dog inside and that shed hit him and the dog and rolled them all into the field. That shed was originally under the tree that fell to the left.  I'd say he was pretty damn lucky.  They said it touched down about 1/4 - 1/2 mile to the west of them, didn't even see it coming....

large.1105171352.jpg.5bc1caacc0dbe0b99f8f4b8f883f116b.jpg

That's about the best look I had of it. The problem was they issued a severe T-storm warning for southern Huntington Co. and I had to wait and make sure nothing was going to happen there. By the time I got down to Blackford County and coming into it from the north, I would have had to do some core punching and that wasn't happening since it already looked rain-wrapped on radar. Oh well, win some, lose some.

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21 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I know people were bagging on the ENH 10% but it looks like it will verify in the end especially in the NE part of the 10% zone.

Yeah, the thing I thought was more questionable was why it extended as far south as it did (given questions about pre frontal development and then storm mode with the stuff closer to the cold front), though we did have some action in southern IN.  Speaking of which, still haven't heard anything about that first cell that passed south of Bloomington and over toward Seymour. Maybe it means the damage wasn't that bad but the radar presentation looked pretty good.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Yeah, the thing I thought was more questionable was why it extended as far south as it did (given questions about pre frontal development and then storm mode with the stuff closer to the cold front), though we did have some action in southern IN.  Speaking of which, still haven't heard anything about that first cell that passed south of Bloomington and over toward Seymour. Maybe it means the damage wasn't that bad but the radar presentation looked pretty good.

Yeah I can agree with this assessment, the orientation of the higher probabilities should have be along the fronts. mostly centered on the WF area.

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19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, the thing I thought was more questionable was why it extended as far south as it did (given questions about pre frontal development and then storm mode with the stuff closer to the cold front), though we did have some action in southern IN.  Speaking of which, still haven't heard anything about that first cell that passed south of Bloomington and over toward Seymour. Maybe it means the damage wasn't that bad but the radar presentation looked pretty good.

WAVE TV 3 Louisville is reporting that they are seeing plenty of damage in Lawrence County near Springville.

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The Lawrence County Sheriff’s Department confirmed that a tornado had touched down in the eastern part of Lawrence County near Springville. They say they have received reports of homes destroyed and other serious damage, but no reported injuries. 24-Hour News 8’s Megan Sanctorum is gathering information in Springville.   (From WISH TV)

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It sounds like locally the most significant damage occurred in the southern Cleveland metro with the rear inflow jet/outflow surge south of the little MCV/bookend vortex that tracked just south of Cleveland.  A long corridor from extreme eastern Lorain County through northern Portage County/southern Geauga County that is a few miles or so wide saw severe winds, with widespread tree/powerline damage (including power poles snapping) and some sporadic structural damage (heard a few roofs off, siding off houses).  Based on velocity data and the damage I'm guessing a very large and fairly heavily populated area saw 60-80MPH gusts, with some local gusts possibly as strong as 100MPH.  Velocity peaked at around 90 knots for a few scans from what I saw at roughly 1000 feet above ground level...a couple of scans may have had a few higher pixels (I don't have the radar in front of me and am going off of what I observed at the time).  CLE may survey the area out of due diligence, but I really didn't see any evidence of anything tornadic in this area.  Other tornadoes will likely be confirmed in OH though and a few already have been. 

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My parents house was hit by the possible Brunswick, Ohio tornado. They have a few pieces of siding ripped off. A tree in their front yard was blown over, thank god it did not fall towards the house. Our garbage cans are nowhere to be found. My sister was outside during it and was blown over. Their power is still out. Multiple transformers were damaged, per the police scanner.

I was outside during the tornado but I live in south Brunswick and felt nothing but some wind. They live in north Brunswick a few roads away from Strongsville. I saw transformer flashes and thought damn there must be an actual tornado. Then the sirens started going off. 

I don't know if it was a confirmed tornado or not, but due the the street localization of the wind damage, seems like a tornado to me? I am less than a mile away from them and felt less than severe thunderstorm winds. They experienced extreme winds. 

 

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22 minutes ago, Benadrill said:

My parents house was hit by the possible Brunswick, Ohio tornado. They have a few pieces of siding ripped off. A tree in their front yard was blown over, thank god it did not fall towards the house. Our garbage cans are nowhere to be found. My sister was outside during it and was blown over. Their power is still out. Multiple transformers were damaged, per the police scanner.

I was outside during the tornado but I live in south Brunswick and felt nothing but some wind. They live in north Brunswick a few roads away from Strongsville. I saw transformer flashes and thought damn there must be an actual tornado. Then the sirens started going off. 

I don't know if it was a confirmed tornado or not, but due the the street localization of the wind damage, seems like a tornado to me? I am less than a mile away from them and felt less than severe thunderstorm winds. They experienced extreme winds. 

 

There can be surprisingly sharp cutoffs to straight-line winds.  I was watching the radar fairly closely and didn't see any strong rotation near Brunswick...that was where the outflow winds really started to look strong.  I don't want to 100% rule out a tornado but this appears to be a case of very strong outflow winds, which is not common in our area over such a long swath.  

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