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Mid-Atlantic winter 2017-18 snowfall contest


PrinceFrederickWx

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • Replies 178
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Updated:

BWI: 6.5"

DCA: 3.1"

IAD: 5.0"

RIC: 8.1"

 

Leaderboard:

BristowWx: 8.1

UIWWildthing: 10.5

WinterWxLuvr: 12.7

By the way, if anyone knows of any airport in the western areas of this subforum where NWS keeps official (or unofficial) snowfall data, please let me know! I want to find a way to get western areas of this forum covered in the contest somehow next year, but there doesn't seem to be anything as far as I can tell.

 

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We aren't even half way through the snowfall season, based on previous years and the larger number of K-U storms in late January, February and March than this part of the season. Therefore it's a reasonable conjecture that you could double or even triple these numbers to estimate whose forecasts are really ahead. Keep the faith, double digit forecasters. 

Currently thinking the middle of February might produce a really good snowfall event. There is extreme cold all across northeast Siberia slowly spreading into Alaska. I have a hunch that some of this extreme cold will break off and head southeast late in January and this could set up good synoptics by mid-February. 

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6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Already busted on RIC, but I like where I stand on the other 3.  

And RIC # are horribly measured! You can never take their measurements seriously!! I think there is an area in DC that has the same problem. I am at 17" for Met winter and I am about 25 miles from RIC. Yea, we have done better being south, but their #s are still not accurate.

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56 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

Basically busted on Richmond, but not too far off to have a home run February and get relatively close to those numbers. Should've gone with Nina climo :lol:

Why do you think you busted on Richmond? So far you're very close to what they have, and your forecast is higher than the current total, so there's always a chance they'll add to it and you'll be exactly right.

Now for someone like myself, who didn't forecast enough for RIC, it can only stay the same or get worse. It's better to have an over departure rather than under at this point. WinterWxLuvr, for example, has already been eliminated from winning since his departures can only get worse.

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1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Why do you think you busted on Richmond? So far you're very close to what they have, and your forecast is higher than the current total, so there's always a chance they'll add to it and you'll be exactly right.

Now for someone like myself, who didn't forecast enough for RIC, it can only stay the same or get worse. It's better to have an over departure rather than under at this point. WinterWxLuvr, for example, has already been eliminated from winning since his departures can only get worse.

I feel like they'll get luckier once again, and top that total, if not much more. Good thing Salisbury is a tiebreaker though

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Updated totals:

BWI: 8.7

DCA: 3.3

IAD: 6.6

RIC: 8.4

 

Current leaderboard:

UIWWildthing: 7.4

BristowWx: 8.0

KingJWx: 14.0

Onceinalifetime2009-10: 16.0

 

BristowWx has already been eliminated (sorry!), so the next theoretical winner would be KingJWx- it's going to take a WWA event at least to move UIWWildthing out of first, so he/she is in a good spot right now.

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By the way, SBY now at 16.4" which is above all but perhaps four forecasts.

I just skimmed through the forecasts, looks to me like there's a group of about five who would like to see one moderate snow event (in March no doubt) that largely avoids RIC. I didn't spot anybody who needs like 2-3" top ups to succeed, and then there's the rest of us looking for a big one (or two). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

By the way, SBY now at 16.4" which is above all but perhaps four forecasts.

I just skimmed through the forecasts, looks to me like there's a group of about five who would like to see one moderate snow event (in March no doubt) that largely avoids RIC. I didn't spot anybody who needs like 2-3" top ups to succeed, and then there's the rest of us looking for a big one (or two). 

I'm happy that I'll beat @WxUSAF in the tiebreaker this March. B)

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Updated totals:

BWI: 10.5"

DCA: 3.7"

IAD: 6.6"

RIC: 10.4"

 

@UIWWildthing retains the lead.

@KingJWx needs a WWA event that hits DCA and IAD but screws RIC and BWI.

@Eskimo Joe needs a WWA event that hits DCA, IAD and BWI but screws RIC.

@olafminesaw is in a great spot if we get a WWA event that hits all four airports.

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