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November Discobs Thread


George BM

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ll take any motherf*kers -3SD AO if they just GIVING it away, but I have a little hesitation when seeing that vortex moving into AK.

Eps is very similar to the GEFS. Such a nice look up top and man what a beautiful west-based block at day 15. But then you look out towards the E Pacific and see that vortex and it does give some pause. Hopefully it doesn't become a fixture.

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29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I haven't really been paying very much attention to the potential freeze for Saturday morning. Just looked at the 12z Euro- it has temps in the low to mid 20s across the region. 20 at Westminster.

GFS and Euro are in agreement with low to mid 20s for most of the area outside of DC proper. 3kNAM is colder than GFS for the next couple days and hints that maybe places like IAD hit 32 before Saturday.

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6 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

We're just trusting snow maps verbatim this year are we? :) 

1) Had to wake up early this morning (as my 5:15 post shows) and was getting ready to go to bed so I was in no mood for detailed analysis of the NAM; 

2) Detailed analysis of the NAM is frowned upon, and the 6z run proves why.  Lol

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

If this morning is an indication of today's weather... mby will see no rain...beautiful clear sky and a cool 37 degrees. Looks like short range models have a sharp n/s cutoff with precip. 

Todays High temps for  (Westminster )

Euro.  40

Gfs.    39-40

3knam  39-40 

Cobb output  39.6

Pretty impressive for early November. Looking forward to the hard freeze Fri. night. 

Looking ahead Cobb output has 35 FrIday for Westminster as a high...nice.

 

 

??? to the bolded. Radar looks pretty okay as day unfolds, no?

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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

DC currently in a sucker hole, while it's raining good imby. This is why I moved here.

4-6 weeks from now,  all things being equal (relative to average), and this system (slp running along a cold front w/in 24 hrs. after passage) would be one of our typical ways we manage a 3-6" to 4-8" snowfall. I just hope this is a preview of things to come.

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:snowing: 

Quote

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1110 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

MDZ501-WVZ501-503-505-071900-
Extreme Western Allegany-Western Grant-Western Mineral-
Western Pendleton-
Including the cities of Frostburg, Bayard, Mount Storm, 
Elk Garden, and Riverton
1110 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

.NOW...
Wet snow mixed with rain is expected over the next several hours,
mainly over the ridges of the Allegheny Front. Little or no 
accumulation is expected.

 

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2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

4-6 weeks from now,  all things being equal (relative to average), and this system (slp running along a cold front w/in 24 hrs. after passage) would be one of our typical ways we manage a 3-6" to 4-8" snowfall. I just hope this is a preview of things to come.

Completely agree, mitch. For some reason, I've always really liked these kinds of systems in winter. Pretty much a guaranteed cold 3" snowfall, with the real chance of doubling up on that without too much effort.

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