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November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

pdo-warm-and-cold-phases.jpg?w=720 7 day change: cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.pngWith the exception of the waters off Southern California and the northern Mexican coast, that is a -PDO configuration in the SSTA map you posted

Look at this animation Ben Noll tweeted comparing this November’s east PAC to last November’s east PAC. It’s night and day not only in the GOA but along the North American west coast down to northern California: 

 

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20 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Thank you for backing me up on this.

 

He and I disagreed and  your argument was that the flow was zonal and 4 days ago you said the LR would moderate 

The last 11 days in NYC were minus 6.8 which can never denote zonal . 

 

The blocking being further N as its an extention of higher heights coming out of the Kara sea .

Now like I have been saying the 6 to 10 is cold and the 10 to 15 is BN when the heights connect over the pole and you possibly change the source region 

 

Do you see the LR now ? 

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It's a very unfavorable pattern for snow, it's mostly a bunch of fast moving cutters or offshore coastal systems that can never amplify in this flow. 

We'll probably have to wait until late December for snow chances unless the pattern alters significantly.

In 2010/11 we needed a very strong blocking pattern to counteract the Nina's effects and it still took until late December before we got snow.

If the blocking this year is half the strength, then it's going to be a long wait. DT's outlook seems way too optimistic.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a very unfavorable pattern for snow, it's mostly a bunch of fast moving cutters or offshore coastal systems that can never amplify in this flow. 

We'll probably have to wait until late December for snow chances unless the pattern alters significantly.

In 2010/11 we needed a very strong blocking pattern to counteract the Nina's effects and it still took until late December before we got snow.

If the blocking this year is half the strength, then it's going to be a long wait. DT's outlook seems way too optimistic.

It’s not even thanksgiving yet , wait until December 10th and we’ll see how things evolve by then 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a very unfavorable pattern for snow, it's mostly a bunch of fast moving cutters or offshore coastal systems that can never amplify in this flow. 

We'll probably have to wait until late December for snow chances unless the pattern alters significantly.

In 2010/11 we needed a very strong blocking pattern to counteract the Nina's effects and it still took until late December before we got snow.

If the blocking this year is half the strength, then it's going to be a long wait. DT's outlook seems way too optimistic.

Early December

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a very unfavorable pattern for snow, it's mostly a bunch of fast moving cutters or offshore coastal systems that can never amplify in this flow. 

We'll probably have to wait until late December for snow chances unless the pattern alters significantly.

In 2010/11 we needed a very strong blocking pattern to counteract the Nina's effects and it still took until late December before we got snow.

If the blocking this year is half the strength, then it's going to be a long wait. DT's outlook seems way too optimistic.

You could snow by the end of next weekend / and if you don't it's November 

It's early and a lot colder than you thought it would be 

December could turn out to be a VG month 

85 05 10 

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