leo2000 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The EPS and Euro have done very well. Remember the GFS/GEFS lost the record breaking Arctic shot last weekend while the Euro and EPS didn't waiver. This weekend also belongs to the Euro and EPS with the more progressive storm moving through the Northeast. The GEFS and GFS were showing the big closed low getting stuck over the area. Top verification has been EPS and OP Euro Day 1-5 with the EPS day 6-10. Best you can ask for day 11-15 is to begin to pick out some very general teleconnections. But the specifics will be lacking due to the much reduced skill post day 10. Isn't the Euro Ensemble however known to try to break strong blocking down too soon?. From BAMWX More Important to note TRENDS in the EPS data. Its bias to lose the blocking in the 11-15 day period is glaring. Analogs support a sustained -AO/-NAO look. The implications would increases colder risks into Dec. #natgas http://Bamwx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Isn't the Euro Ensemble however known to try to break strong blocking down too soon?. From BAMWX More Important to note TRENDS in the EPS data. Its bias to lose the blocking in the 11-15 day period is glaring. Analogs support a sustained -AO/-NAO look. The implications would increases colder risks into Dec. #natgas http://Bamwx.com The Euro/EPS actually has the highest verification scores out of any other model and is by far the most accurate when compared to the others. The GFS/GEFS is known to show phantom long range blocking that never verifies. Notorious in fact. It’ll show strong blocking in the long range, just keep it there and never advance it forward in time. It has done that I don’t know how many times the last few winters, yet the same people fall for it over and over again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The Euro/EPS actually has the highest verification scores out of any other model and is by far the most accurate when compared to the others. The GFS/GEFS is known to show phantom long range blocking that never verifies. Notorious in fact. It’ll show strong blocking in the long range, just keep it there and never advance it forward in time. It has done that I don’t know how many times the last few winters, yet the same people fall for it over and over again.... I agree that it does that a lot however, it wasn't long ago that the Euro/EPS agreed with the GFS/GEFS about blocking and still does apparently. The difference is that the Euro seems to be too progressive with the warmth invading the east. As well as to quick at breaking down the strong blocking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The Euro/EPS actually has the highest verification scores out of any other model and is by far the most accurate when compared to the others. The GFS/GEFS is known to show phantom long range blocking that never verifies. Notorious in fact. It’ll show strong blocking in the long range, just keep it there and never advance it forward in time. It has done that I don’t know how many times the last few winters, yet the same people fall for it over and over again.... In fairness the Euro has done that too the last 3-4 winters at times Days 10-15. The GFS has just done it more often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or 2degs. BN. Month to date is -2.3degs., but a streak of 9BN days ended yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 I started a new thread dedicated to the high wind potential Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 11 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Eps now went colder in the long range with a potential coastal storm threat for the interior in 9 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Eps now went colder in the long range with a potential coastal storm threat for the interior in 9 days Eps caving to the gefs in the LR? Thats a rarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Gfs is back to a cold turkey day with alot of blocking moving forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is back to a cold turkey day with alot of blocking moving forward Something's definitely starting to brew off the east coast too. Big dive in NAO/AO is often a significant storm signal but will the Pacific cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 How many different components need to come together at once in order for us to get a HECS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: How many different components need to come together at once in order for us to get a HECS? I don't think anyone is looking for a Hecs right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: I don't think anyone is looking for a Hecs right now lol Didn't say anyone was. I was merely asking a question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 This time of year we (big cities generally speaking) really need BOTH PAC and ATL teleconnections working together in our favor to cash in on any November snow chances. Im sure there have been rare times when it worked out BUT with only the NAO in favorably low negative west-based territory without well-positioned N PAC trof/Western US ridging, the big cities/coastal plain will have a few more weeks to go before getting excited for snow chances. Of course that is if the coming pattern doesnt completely roll over on itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 So the 12z GFS just missed a bomb for next Friday. The Northern stream is too progressive this run so that by the time the phase occurs, the baroclinic forcing is already too far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 Yeah I really wouldn't be looking for significant snows along the I-95 corridor but further north and west sure. Depending on how things play out later next week its possible the big cities could see some frozen precipitation at some point during the storm but I wouldn't expect anything significant yet. It would be nice to have a strong nor'easter moving up along the coast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: So the 12z GFS just missed a bomb for next Friday. The Northern stream is too progressive this run so that by the time the phase occurs, the baroclinic forcing is already too far East. I have been on this event for 3 days now , the 0z EPS was very close to an interior snow event from the HV into NE. The GFS however would be a lot colder then that. 850s and DPs would have everyone wet bulb But if you want to see how close this is getting , pull up today's 12z jet streak at 162 vs yesterdays 12z run at 186. If that phases earlier and being this far out that's the idea I like , you just need 1 more bend like that and more than a few snow here. The vortex in W Canada gets squeezed west and the heights are connecting all the way to the Kara sea with blocking over the top , classic set up. The ridge axis continues to be pulled back in the means , so I think this will keep improving. The general theme going forward, The L/R continues to advertise BN temps and the day 10 thru 13 EPS is now colder than its day 12 thru 15 from 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: So the 12z GFS just missed a bomb for next Friday. The Northern stream is too progressive this run so that by the time the phase occurs, the baroclinic forcing is already too far East. The 12z GEFS has nothing at all for that, no storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The 12z GEFS has nothing for that, no storm How's that warm long range looking ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Just now, PB GFI said: How's that warm long range looking ? Progressive fast zonal and semi zonal flow, no traffic in the Atlantic to slow anything down, Cool and dry as a bone...enjoy :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Progressive fast zonal and semi zonal flow, no traffic in the Atlantic to slow anything down, Cool and dry as a bone...enjoy :-) 1 it's going to be cold , but now you have retreated from warm to cool ? I just wanted to make sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 If you guys busted on warm , please don't fall back to dry. It just looks bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Progressive fast zonal and semi zonal flow, no traffic in the Atlantic to slow anything down, Cool and dry as a bone...enjoy :-) Based off what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, PB GFI said: If you guys busted on warm , please don't fall back to dry. It just looks bad. My biggest concern this month so far has actually been the fact it's been dry. Sometimes that is the sneaky bad thing in November that people overlook that can portend a lack of snow during winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 hour ago, PB GFI said: I have been on this event for 3 days now , the 0z EPS was very close to an interior snow event from the HV into NE. The GFS however would be a lot colder then that. 850s and DPs would have everyone wet bulb But if you want to see how close this is getting , pull up today's 12z jet streak at 162 vs yesterdays 12z run at 186. If that phases earlier and being this far out that's the idea I like , you just need 1 more bend like that and more than a few snow here. The vortex in W Canada gets squeezed west and the heights are connecting all the way to the Kara sea with blocking over the top , classic set up. The ridge axis continues to be pulled back in the means , so I think this will keep improving. The general theme going forward, The L/R continues to advertise BN temps and the day 10 thru 13 EPS is now colder than its day 12 thru 15 from 2 days ago. The 12z Euro op is even more progressive than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 36 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: My biggest concern this month so far has actually been the fact it's been dry. Sometimes that is the sneaky bad thing in November that people overlook that can portend a lack of snow during winter agree-I'd like to see a parade of storms even if they are cutters in November.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z Euro op is even more progressive than the GFS. It still shows the storm after Thanksgiving and also has more blocking then previous runs. The pattern change is causing alot of havoc for the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 hour ago, PB GFI said: How's that warm long range looking ? Hopefully we cash on a cold stormy winter so we see less posts from him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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