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November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in New York City Metro

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Classic La Nina fast zonal flow pattern setting up for the second half of November as the EPO goes more positive. A quick succession of cutters beginning today as the PAC Jet goes into overdrive. Windshield wiper pattern with a few mild days ahead of each cutter and colder temps following the cold front. 

Exactly my thinking which falls in line with the more progressive Euro suite.

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Fantom X

Fantom X

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You do realize the sun angle is essentially the same in late November/December as it is in January right? 

Just some perspective Worschester Mass the snowiest true city in the North East (not including western NY) only averages 2.6” in November. #2 Portland Maine only 1.8”!!!!!!!

 yup, today's solar noon sun angle high is 30.4 degrees- same as January 24/25

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Pics?

Others need to post them , all one just has to do is look at the last 3 days on the EPS.

old 8 to 15 , then 7 to 14 , yesterdays 6 to 13 and now the new 5.5 to 12.5

all got colder , BN

Then just look at yesterday's day 12 thru 15 

vs todays new 11 thru 15.

colder ,BN

Now Day 15 starts out cold and all one has to do is see the largest pos anomalies are in W Canada so what's  already BN on the EC will only get colder 

W Canada goes zonal but there is a block in E Canada so that air over snowover gets pushed SE and is BN for our area period  

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Exactly my thinking which falls in line with the more progressive Euro suite.

Im not sure I agree 100%. Does it have that La Nina-ish progressive look to it? Out West in the PAC, yes. But once you head across the continental divide, we have an amplified pattern with a decent -NAO signature held in place on every ens mean I am looking at. A PAC dominated look like this might hurt my cold December outlook with lack of significant cold air source but as we head farther out in time, if the Atlantic side can continue to look favorable we will have plenty of opportunity imo. 

My only concern really is, if we can't get the PV into Canada as we move forward, then 'sustained' cold will be an issue later on. Again, later on we can probably work without the PAC being 100% in our favor but early on it will be an issue. We dont *need* the PV over top of us to get chances but the lack of any signature at all into Canada for the foreseeable future does give me some concern especially for early season chances. Check out the EPS for example......PV is non-existent for all intents and purposes.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Others need to post them , all one just has to do is look at the last 3 days on the EPS.

old 8 to 15 , then 7 to 14 , yesterdays 6 to 13 and now the new 5.5 to 12.5

all got colder , BN

Then just look at yesterday's day 12 thru 15 

vs todays new 11 thru 15.

colder ,BN

Now Day 15 starts out cold and all one has to do is see the largest pos anomalies are in W Canada so what's  already BN on the EC will only get colder 

W Canada goes zonal but there is a block in E Canada so that air over snowover gets pushed SE and is BN for our area period  

Crap PAC look vs decent ATL look negates things this time of year imo and will end up closer to N. Later in the season we can get better chances as long as one is working solidly in our favor.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You knew there had to be a relaxation after the Aleutian ridge has been at record levels for the first half of November. 

With that said, it is refreshing to at least see decent blocking and ridging so far at higher latitude. It has been a few years, if my memory serves me correctly, since we have had much of any sort of sustained ridging look at those levels. You can see the big EPO block dissipate but then a -NAO block takes shape. The ridging just moves around. Again, a decent look imo as we move later into the season as long as ridging continues AND we can get either the PAC, the ATL, or both working in our favor. Better blocky look than recent years is my point. Do we continue to see this? Who knows but east-based Nina generally says yes, this is something that will continue to move around.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Crap PAC look vs decent ATL look negates things this time of year imo and will end up closer to N. Later in the season we can get better chances as long as one is working solidly in our favor.

The ridging is sitting on the west coast and through the midsection , the crap pack never sends you AN in the LR on the EPS

The -  EPO Center is so far West it allows ridging through the WC centered through the Rockies.

Look at the actual 850s the colder temps are in E Canada then forced south 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

The ridging is sitting on the west coast and through the midsection , the crap pack never sends you AN in the LR on the EPS

The -  EPO Center is so far West it allows ridging through the WC centered through the Rockies.

Look at the actual 850s the colder temps are in E Canada then forced south 

Actual 850's as you requested. Note the coldest airmass is N of Alaska. Eastern Canada is not where the colder temps are located. Most of that stuff in Canada is actually AN. Ridge out West fine but how is the cold air headed South with the PV settled N of AK? :

 

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_namer_11.png

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

eta: I posted last night that the PNA didnt look like a true +PNA to me....more like a hybrid quasi +PNA with the ridge out West which keeps the PV well displaced. That isn't going to cut it in late Nov/early Dec regardless of how the NAO is working for us. Need all or nothing this time of year. Later on we can work with either or for chances. 

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Actual 850's as you requested. Note the coldest airmass is N of Alaska. Eastern Canada is not where the colder temps are located. Most of that stuff in Canada is actually AN. Ridge out West fine but how is the cold air headed South with the PV settled N of AK? :

 

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_namer_11.png

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

eta: I posted last night that the PNA didnt look like a true +PNA to me....more like a hybrid quasi +PNA with the ridge out West which keeps the PV well displaced. That isn't going to cut it in late Nov/early Dec regardless of how the NAO is working for us. Need all or nothing this time of year. Later on we can work with either or for chances. 

 

Go look at day 11 thru 15 like I posted on  why are you are posting a snapshot of day 10 ? 

that air is shunted east ,  now go look at the last 3 days of the EPS day 11 thru 15 day 10 to 15 and today's 9 thru 15 and see If every day inside the ensemble package isn't colder at 850 and 2m.

There is no warm up on the EPS day 11 thru 15 , go post that and get back to me Ralph

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Posting a day 10 map and ignoring day 11 thru 15 would be like me posting day 7 thru 9 to prove my point.

There is a storm on the EPS day 11.5 with the line into SNJ.

One just has to look at the adjustment of the ridge west over the last 3 days which will show you that  

I am not talking about snow , I am really talking about the 11 thru 15 the EPS is BN

the + EPO sets up so far West ,  the trough is on the EC

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
 

Go look at day 11 thru 15 like I posted on  why are you are posting a snapshot of day 10 ? 

that air is shunted east ,  now go look at the last 3 days of the EPS day 11 thru 15 day 10 to 15 and today's 9 thru 15 and see If every day inside the ensemble package isn't colder at 850 and 2m.

There is no warm up on the EPS day 11 thru 15 , go post that and get back to me Ralph

Ens have been horrid past day 10 since early October which is why I dont put much stock into them. In fact, someone was just recently pointing out how poorly the D10+ ens missed this BN spell we've had.
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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
Posting a day 10 map and ignoring day 11 thru 15 would be like me posting day 7 thru 9 to prove my point.

There is a storm on the EPS day 11.5 with the line into SNJ.

One just has to look at the adjustment of the ridge west over the last 3 days which will show you that  

I am not talking about snow , I am really talking about the 11 thru 15 the EPS is BN

the + EPO sets up so far West ,  the trough is on the EC

K
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Cfa

Cfa

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very heavy downpour coming through here now with gusty winds.

 

WUNIDS_map.gif.712a3dd763f4e8c8e1a53f62460a2ee8.gif

 

That line is moving quite slow. It’s just now reaching Lake Grove (where I work), I drove through it over an hour ago in Nassau. I can hear the heavy rain pelting the roof right now, very soothing sound.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Cfa said:

That line is moving quite slow. It’s just now reaching Lake Grove (where I work), I drove through it over an hour ago in Nassau. I can hear the heavy rain pelting the roof right now, very soothing sound.

Picked up close to 0.5" n that very heavy downpour. I can imagine the roads were tough with all the fallen leaves making conditions slicker and blocking the storm drains.

 
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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Cfa said:

That line is moving quite slow. It’s just now reaching Lake Grove (where I work), I drove through it over an hour ago in Nassau. I can hear the heavy rain pelting the roof right now, very soothing sound.

Picked up close to 0.5" in that very heavy downpour. I can imagine the roads were tough with all the fallen leaves making conditions slicker and blocking the storm drains.

 
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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Ops and ensembles have been struggling during this time period.

The EPS and Euro have done very well. Remember the GFS/GEFS lost the record breaking Arctic shot last weekend while the Euro and EPS didn't waiver.  This weekend also belongs to the Euro and EPS with the more progressive storm moving through the Northeast. The GEFS and GFS were showing the big closed low getting stuck over the area. Top verification has been  EPS and OP Euro Day 1-5 with the EPS day 6-10. Best you can ask for day 11-15 is to begin to pick out some very general teleconnections. But the specifics will be lacking due to the much reduced skill post day 10.

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