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November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Both the operational Euro and EPS have absolutely nothing at all for next week or the next 15+ days. Pattern goes mild on it too

And they could be wrong this time, gfs has been doing very well lately. Having a warm bias is just as bad as a cold bias whether it's the forecaster or LR models (completely whiffed on the BN November). 

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11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

And they could be wrong this time, gfs has been doing very well lately. Having a warm bias is just as bad as a cold bias whether it's the forecaster or LR models (completely whiffed on the BN November). 

Or the GFS can be showing phantom blocking as is its normal bias

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29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

And they could be wrong this time, gfs has been doing very well lately. Having a warm bias is just as bad as a cold bias whether it's the forecaster or LR models (completely whiffed on the BN November). 

Could you please post the latest verification scores showing the GFS outscoring the EPS?

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53 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Could you please post the latest verification scores showing the GFS outscoring the EPS?

Look at the total night and day differences between the GFS and Euro at only day 6, forget even the long range, like not even close lol. My money is on the EPS. Remember when the great GFS totally lost this past weekend’s arctic cold shot?? Run after run too??

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4 minutes ago, swataz said:

So, from what I can see in the long range, the GFS has a low inside the BM right around Thanksgiving with a surge of cold air afterward. Would this be considered an outlier at this point?

 

The 06z GFS tracks the low from near OBX to about 200 miles SE of the BM. The 00z GFS was tucked into the coast and was rain for everyone within 200 miles of the coast. Meanwhile that "threat" has little support from the 06z GEFS and zero support from the ECMWF/EPS. 

 

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18 minutes ago, swataz said:

Perhaps I was looking at an older run. Either way it would seem that the GFS is not in line with other models and ensembles.

I went back and looked at the last two days of GFS runs. None of them showed a significant snow threat for the region near Thanksgiving (+/- 48hrs) of 12z 11/23/17.

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50 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs agrees with the op

 

No it doesn't. The GEFS has no more than 0.20" or 0.30" North and West and even less than that near the coast while the 06 GFS indicates 0.50"+ North and West of NYC with greater amounts over the Poconos which is why it's spitting out the snowy weenie map.

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42 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I went back and looked at the last two days of GFS runs. None of them showed a significant snow threat for the region near Thanksgiving (+/- 48hrs) of 12z 11/23/17.

Who said we were going to see significant snows for Thanksgiving? Maybe snow showers or something light at best.

My idea was that the blockiness would continue and we would see mainly N to BN temps with stormy weather. 

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

And they could be wrong this time, gfs has been doing very well lately. Having a warm bias is just as bad as a cold bias whether it's the forecaster or LR models (completely whiffed on the BN November). 

If the pattern was wall to wall cold, he wouldn’t be posting ...we all know that by now 

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27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Who said we were going to see significant snows for Thanksgiving? Maybe snow showers or something light at best.

My idea was that the blockiness would continue and we would see mainly N to BN temps with stormy weather. 

People expect too much too early.   The odds of a decent snow in November are quite low...most area reporting stations average close to zero snowfall for the month.

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13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

People expect too much too early.   The odds of a decent snow in November are quite low...most area reporting stations average close to zero snowfall for the month.

 

18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Agree

My point was that people shouldn't be posting clown maps from a GFS run that just happened to show a few inches near the area, especially when it has no support.

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4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Both the operational Euro and EPS have absolutely nothing at all for next week or the next 15+ days. Pattern goes mild on it too

Shhhhh you missed this entire current cold period that began Friday thru Thanksgiving.

Feel free to post the weeklies from Oct 30 for week 3 and 4 vs the current front 2 weeks at 500mb and look at the atrocious bust that you guys posted on.

You guys were cheering the same AN forecast then missed the period and just keep it moving huh ?

There is nothing but ridging on the weeklies and nothing supports any long warm up.

Transient sure , but if you ridge the WC you will force the trough back in the east over time 

 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

People expect too much too early.   The odds of a decent snow in November are quite low...most area reporting stations average close to zero snowfall for the month.

I’m definitely in agreement with this. We knocked down coastal water temps a little bit with current cold period but they are still way too warm. It’s still going to take the perfect setup to get it to snow near the coast. If I was in OC or the Poconos it would be a different story.  

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  1. 21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

    I’m definitely in agreement with this. We knocked down coastal water temps a little bit with current cold period but they are still way too warm. It’s still going to take the perfect setup to get it to snow near the coast. If I was in OC or the Poconos it would be a different story.  

    if we could have snow on halloween we can have it it late november even with warm ocean temps relatively speaking..

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With the +EPO taking such a big rise, the +PNA ridge may be progressive and propagate further east over time.

You lose the EPO with that bomb coming off Alaska but it's diving SW and it's going to pump the ridge 

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

People expect too much too early.   The odds of a decent snow in November are quite low...most area reporting stations average close to zero snowfall for the month.

The day before T-giving 2014 I got 10" of cream cheese. Doesn't happen often but when it happens it doesn't fool around. The storms after the hurricanes in 2011/12 were no joke either.

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But with the the record Aleutian ridge weakening, the PAC Jet may try to push the +PNA ridge off the mark toward Central Canada instead of Western. 

 

Eventually yes , but the UKMET through 144 is the least progressive and would probably yield something on the EC as the ridge axis is far enough west.

I think it's prudent to think eventually this breaks down , but what has to break down was totally missed in here by some.

That said , Thanksgiving week starting with snow  showers on Sunday could be a fun tracking week.

Now as far as week 4 goes , will look at it at the end of this week 

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52 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Eventually yes , but the UKMET through 144 is the least progressive and would probably yield something on the EC as the ridge axis is far enough west.

I think it's prudent to think eventually this breaks down , but what has to break down was totally missed in here by some.

That said , Thanksgiving week starting with snow  showers on Sunday could be a fun tracking week.

Now as far as week 4 goes , will look at it at the end of this week 

The record Aleutian blocking ridge dropping the EPO has been our primary cold source in November. If the Aleutian ridge starts to fade with a more of a +EPO, then the  PAC Jet will produce a progressive pattern here with fast flow. The next several days of runs will be key  as to where this pattern is eventually headed.

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Not comfortable seeing a rather unfavorable Pacific pattern, that Alaskan vortex is a cause for concern even if the Atlantic is excellent. 

We risk seeing good storm tracks that lack arctic air if we lose the Aleutian ridge and -EPO completely. 

This means coastal plain would see mostly rain/mixed events while interior does very well with snowfall. 

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