CIK62 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or about 3degs. BN. NYC now @-1.8degs. for the month and should be about -2degs. or better by the 21st. No AN 8-day period is likely till Dec. Dec. still way AN everywhere, save the Pacific NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or about 3degs. BN. NYC now @-1.8degs. for the month and should be about -2degs. or better by the 21st. No AN 8-day period is likely till Dec. Dec. still way AN everywhere, save the Pacific NW. Not discrediting your AN++ call for Dec as a few others have similar thinking but what pattern/teleconnections are you using to base this outlook on? Ie, -pna, +ao, relentless SE ridging, pac firehose, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 What's the longrange look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 30 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not discrediting your AN++ call for Dec as a few others have similar thinking but what pattern/teleconnections are you using to base this outlook on? Ie, -pna, +ao, relentless SE ridging, pac firehose, etc? The "confused/confusing" CFS output which has the next 45 days BN, that is virtually all of Dec. you know, and its monthly 'Redout' which roasts everyone. JB likes a BN Dec. and Nov. will be BN w/o being predicted so by Nov.01. An accident or a new modality setting in after 31 months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not discrediting your AN++ call for Dec as a few others have similar thinking but what pattern/teleconnections are you using to base this outlook on? Ie, -pna, +ao, relentless SE ridging, pac firehose, etc? He uses the CFS,everything he posts is from the CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 46 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not discrediting your AN++ call for Dec as a few others have similar thinking but what pattern/teleconnections are you using to base this outlook on? Ie, -pna, +ao, relentless SE ridging, pac firehose, etc? You have to be careful with these calls. A few weeks ago, they were well above normal for month of November. I believe the call was above normal until April. It is to be appreciated, but taken with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 34° w/ a mix of sleet/snow falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Snow coming down at decent clip right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: You have to be careful with these calls. A few weeks ago, they were well above normal for month of November. I believe the call was above normal until April. It is to be appreciated, but taken with a grain of salt. I am and have been in the "early and often" start to the season since mid-Sept with a BN temps Nov and Dec at the very least. The only wrench was when the pattern had briefly flipped with the record low SLP and Phillippe debacle back in Oct and I said uh oh my outlook is in jeopardy via the almost complete pattern reversal, but as we found out, that crap pattern had virtually zero holding power and we headed right back into similar teleconnections that we had seen since nearly mid-summer. That's not to say this upcoming west-based -NAO prog along with a pumped up SW ridge, neutral to positive PNA, and -AO outlook cant totally roll over on itself and torch us in December as some have alluded to. However, this pattern has holding power it seems thru at least the early part of winter and wants to seemingly hang around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 14 hours ago, Snow88 said: Looks like all the models now have a storm before Turkey Day Right now, it looks warm for our area but we have to see if the models correct the storm to the south with the block in place. The 00z Euro was much weaker, with barely a surface reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 52 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Snow coming down at decent clip right now Here as well now. Third day with snow already and not even halfway through November, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 19 hours ago, CIK62 said: This might do it: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?cb_00010=on&cb_00060=on&cb_00095=on&cb_62619=on&cb_63680=on&cb_72137=on&format=html&site_no=01372058&period=&begin_date=2017-11-05&end_date=2017-11-12 Has a lot of other 'water quality' type stats too. Reminds me that back during the early 1960's drought, the City was force to build [1964] a pumping station above the 'salt line'---beyond Kingston, I suppose ---(but not above the pollution line lol) as our reservoirs headed toward 20% when 80%-90% was normal. Chlorine up the wazzoo was added and the flow was fed directly into one of the water tunnels and on to our taps. This has info on the plant which was at Chelsea, which is below Kingston. https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1988/0315/report.pdf It's why I attached a $300 water filter going into my main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 3 hours ago, KEITH L.I said: He uses the CFS,everything he posts is from the CFS. Why would any reasonable person use the CFS and not the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 15 hours ago, Rjay said: Our most "ice-covered" winters I can think of are- 1976-77, 1977-78, 1978-79 (three in a row!), 1980-81, 1981-82, 1984-85, 1989-90, 1993-94, 2003-04, 2014-2015. Funny to see 1989-90 in that list, but December 1989 was extremely cold (more than 10 degrees below normal for the month!) Our coldest months in that period were January 1977, December 1989, January 1994, January 2004, February 2015. I can't remember the last time we had a February month 10 degrees below normal (maybe February 1934?) Notable Arctic shots that I've experienced: January 1977- monthlong cold, peaked at (-2) in NYC Christmas 1980- only below zero Xmas (-1) I remember at NYC. January 1985- big inauguration day arctic shot (-2) at NYC January 1994- first time in 50 years that NYC got to 0 or below from two separate arctic shots (and three lows of 0 or below- 0,-2, 0). February 2016- first below zero temp at NYC (-1) in the month of February in over 70 years. We still haven't had a low below -2 since the 1940s, when it happened multiple times, including a dip to (-6)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 On 11/11/2017 at 1:48 PM, danstorm said: It feels wonderful... That exhilarating first rush of winter! It's more wonderful when people have heat My old boiler broke down Friday night, and I had a new one put in on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, Paragon said: It's why I attached a $300 water filter going into my main line. Are you talking about water quality in Malverne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: Our most "ice-covered" winters I can think of are- 1976-77, 1977-78, 1978-79 (three in a row!), 1981-82, 1984-85, 1989-90, 1993-94, 2003-04, 2014-2015. Funny to see 1989-90 in that list, but December 1989 was extremely cold (more than 10 degrees below normal for the month!) Our coldest months in that period were January 1977, December 1989, January 1994, January 2004, February 2015. I can't remember the last time we had a February month 10 degrees below normal (maybe February 1934?) December 1989 was amazing that every single day had a 32 degree or less reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 On 11/11/2017 at 7:33 PM, uncle W said: as did a lot of the 1960's Decembers 1959 had some mild days the first half of the month...then it would get cold in the second half with a snowstorm for Christmas...1995 was like those years...1959 is the warmest of these Decembers by three degrees on average over 1961 and eight degrees warmer than 1960...the best Decembers got their warmest days at the beginning of the month... 1959...55 on the 3rd...56 on the 16th...snowstorm 12/21-22...coldest air of the season... 1960...62 on the 5th...64 on the 6th......snowstorm 12/11-12...record cold... 1961...51 on the 4th...58 on the 5th......snowstorm 12/23-24...cold enough... 1962...68 on the 1st...53 on the 6th......snowstorm 12/21-22...very cold mid month... 1963...55 on the 8th.............................snowstorm 23-24th...very cold mid month... 1966...66 on the 9th...62 on the 10th.....snowstorm 24-25th...cold enough... 1969...54 on the 10th...60 on the 11th...snowstorm Christmas night...cold enough... 1970...66 on the 2nd...64 on the 3rd.....snow 12/22 with sleet...cold Christmas week... 1995...55 on the 3rd...52 on the 4th......snowstorm 12/19-20th...cold mid month... Weren't 1966-67 and 1993-94 also like this? Early December mild, late December snow and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 On 11/12/2017 at 8:29 AM, donsutherland1 said: Select Record Low Temperatures for 11/12/2017: New York City: …JFK: 29° (old record: 32°) Newark: 28° (old record: 29°) White Plains: 25° (old record: 26°) JFK and Newark set records on November 10, 11, and 12. When was the last time either had three straight record lows? Wow. Did Marthas Vineyard, Westhampton and Toms River all get down to 19 degrees Saturday Morning, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, sferic said: December 1989 was amazing that every single day had a 32 degree or less reading The block was so strong all the heavy snows missed us to the south and we had 1-2" clippers but it was so cold that 1-2" of snow stuck to the ground all month! I remember Philly had something like 34 straight days with a 32 degree reading or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Pattern looks like it could support our best shot at an accumulative snowfall thanksgiving, after 2 cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 GFS also brings another Artic blast this weekend, Sundayish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS also brings another Artic blast this weekend, Sundayish That's the start of the colder -NAO pattern. Could get into the 60s ahead of that on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 24 minutes ago, Paragon said: That's the start of the colder -NAO pattern. Could get into the 60s ahead of that on Saturday. And snow showers area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Looks like area wide snow showers for Sunday as the trough comes through which will signal a colder pattern. The lake regions are going to get buried. We also have to watch the thanksgiving week storm. It has a chance of coming in more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Looks like area wide snow showers for Sunday as the trough comes through which will signal a colder pattern. The lake regions are going to get buried. We also have to watch the thanksgiving week storm. It has a chance of coming in more south. GFS was best run as of yet, trough still positive and a bit to fast, doesn’t allow it to develop just slides out off coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Pattern looks like it could support our best shot at an accumulative snowfall thanksgiving, after 2 cutters Obviously too early for specifics, but are their signals for day before, day of, or day after? Asking regarding travel arrangements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 hour ago, sferic said: December 1989 was amazing that every single day had a 32 degree or less reading An amazingly cold month with a -11.5° departure, but only 1.3" of snow at my station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 20 minutes ago, North and West said: Obviously too early for specifics, but are their signals for day before, day of, or day after? Asking regarding travel arrangements. I’d say so, after the cutter departs heights look to rebuild, slowing this to dig further south, timing looks key, right now this is a tad too quick, the trough is barely neutral as it pushes past, slower allowing more of a neutral/neg tilt would allow us to tap the southern moisture, and funnel moisture into area... we want this trough west further at this timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I’d say so, after the cutter departs nights look to rebuild, slowing this to dig further south, timing looks key, right now this is a tad too quick, the trough is barely neutral as it pushes past, slower allowing more of a neutral/neg tilt would allow us to tap the southern moisture, and funnel moisture into area... we want this trough west further at this timeframe Thanks, so too soon for specific days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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