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November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It means that we are seeing the strongest ever Aleutian ridge blocking for the month of November which is set to continue. Just like recent years, record Pacific blocking is dominating again.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_namer_1.thumb.png.9dea054c94bcc6f2284ad662c8017218.png

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_namer_6.thumb.png.0ea087638389fe04c160f0f6d5bd0c46.png

 

 

 

 

 

The key here is how far west that positive is

When the trough develops NE of Hawaii , it translates to one on  the EC

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14 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

This is easily the earliest I can remember having multi-day ice on my pond. Probably by at least a week or two. Hopefully it portends some decent ice on the Hudson for the first winter since '13-14... I'd love to see the ice yachts out in action again.

Wasn’t the Hudson also covered by ice in February 2015? 

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1 hour ago, larrye said:

I wouldn’t but into it, they call the polar vortex a “storm”. Hmmmm

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1 hour ago, larrye said:

It’s a kiddie playing fake meteorologist on social media. It’s become a trend over the last few years...

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs was close with a coastal storm for thanksgiving week. Gefs is also close.

I see that. But how much credibility would any reputable met put into a GFS run that is "close" at 288 hours out? If it were a long-range forecast or a statement of seeing a pattern change that far out ... maybe. But ...

 

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs was close with a coastal storm for thanksgiving week. Gefs is also close.

 

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7 hours ago, sferic said:

Just curious, I know we have buoy temps for the ocean.

 

Are there however water temps for the Hudson river ?

This might do it: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?cb_00010=on&cb_00060=on&cb_00095=on&cb_62619=on&cb_63680=on&cb_72137=on&format=html&site_no=01372058&period=&begin_date=2017-11-05&end_date=2017-11-12

Has a lot of other 'water quality' type stats too.   Reminds me that back during the early 1960's drought, the City was force to build [1964] a pumping station above the 'salt line'---beyond Kingston, I suppose ---(but not above the pollution line  lol) as our reservoirs headed toward 20% when 80%-90% was normal.  Chlorine up the wazzoo was added and the flow was fed directly into one of the water tunnels and on to our taps.   This has info on the plant which was at Chelsea, which is below Kingston.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1988/0315/report.pdf

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Euro continuing with near record low pressures for November cutting through the Great Lakes next weekend. It would be something if we get get pressures near record lows again following the record breaking late October event.

 

 

ecmwf_mslp_conus_162.thumb.png.356f1bfed78f172bdc8de1a56ccff125.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eps still shows blocking and it's different than the op in regards to the pattern.

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Euro continuing with near record low pressures for November cutting through the Great Lakes next weekend. It would be something if we get get pressures near record lows again following the record breaking late October event.

 

 

ecmwf_mslp_conus_162.thumb.png.356f1bfed78f172bdc8de1a56ccff125.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

Could the storm in the lakes next weekend like the Euro is showing trigger a complete pattern change?

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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

This might do it: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?cb_00010=on&cb_00060=on&cb_00095=on&cb_62619=on&cb_63680=on&cb_72137=on&format=html&site_no=01372058&period=&begin_date=2017-11-05&end_date=2017-11-12

Has a lot of other 'water quality' type stats too.   Reminds me that back during the early 1960's drought, the City was force to build [1964] a pumping station above the 'salt line'---beyond Kingston, I suppose ---(but not above the pollution line  lol) as our reservoirs headed toward 20% when 80%-90% was normal.  Chlorine up the wazzoo was added and the flow was fed directly into one of the water tunnels and on to our taps.   

Fantastic reference! Thanks so much !

 

Just seeing if data can be converted to Fahrenheit

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

18z GEFS has the 2 inch line into NYC throughout the run with a lot of snow for inland areas and near the lakes region

I think we will all see some snow with this upcoming pattern

If the models start hitting the -NAO like the 18z gfs did then you're probably right. 

I'll lean with climo on this one but we probably have a better than normal chance at some snow this month, take any Novie snows as a bonus. 

Then again there's the Euro op.

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