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November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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21 minutes ago, Mr. Weather said:

Thanks for clearing that one up for me buddy. I get that nobody really knows i was asking as far as what the models are tracking. Like i mentioned I am still pretty new to all this and just trying to learn. Thanks.

The guidance isn't sufficiently good to pinpoint specific conditions that far out. FWIW, both the EPS and GEFS suggest below normal temperatures in the region. But at that range, their accuracy is not much better than climatology. The odds of colder than normal conditions would increase if the forecast extreme blocking develops. 

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1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

you will be proven wrong.....

We shall see NWS going with 22 in the Park. I’m thinking 24. Still impressive and record breaking. I just think the CAA peaked during the day. This would mean colder in the radiational spots but warmer for the park and LGA which essentially do not radiate 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The early cold shot and possibility of extreme blocking in coming days are possible indications that we might have a snowy winter based on numerous winters with similar events. A snowy December would largely confirm such an outcome.

Don, I believe a major winter storm will be on the models and on the East Coast in the next 10 to 15 days.

As the PNA rises any one of those short waves will just dig around the base the block over the Davis Straits and run into the base of the trough before turning N/E.

The EPO strengthens and as it retrogrades the NPAC trough west the ridge will develop in its place.

The -AO will allow troughs to run into the mid lattitudes and slide down the backside of that ridge.

There is enough blocking that the flow will slow.

Now who gets what and where , too early ,

obviously areas away from 60 degree water should do better but again this is not about details.

So far only cutters are modeled and I thinks that's wrong . The 1st one seems to run to the lakes but I think anything that trails it comes under . 

( who knows the 1st could come under and redevelope ) but I am waiting for a PNA rise and thats around day 9/10.

So you may get your snowy winter off to a fast start 

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New York City Area Records as of 9 pm:

New York City:
...JFK: 28° (tied record set in 2004)
...LGA: 29° (broke record of 31° set 1956)
...NYC: 26° (broke record of 27° set in 1914)
Newark: 27° (tied record set in 2004)

Bridgeport and White Plains were all within 3° or less of their daily record low temperature.
 

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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

CAA has calmed down. It looks like the peak of the cold arrived during the day. Thus bad news for NYC and coastal low temps. I doubt we see forecasted lows verify in the park

Bad news over a degree or two is just a tad dramatic, no? ;)

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8 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Don, I believe a major winter storm will be on the models and on the East Coast in the next 10 to 15 days.

As the PNA rises any one of those short waves will just dig around the base the block over the Davis Straits and run into the base of the trough before turning N/E.

The EPO strengthens and as it retrogrades the NPAC trough west the ridge will develop in its place.

The -AO will allow troughs to run into the mid lattitudes and slide down the backside of that ridge.

There is enough blocking that the flow will slow.

Now who gets what and where , too early ,

obviously areas away from 60 degree water should do better but again this is not about details.

So far only cutters are modeled and I thinks that's wrong . The 1st one seems to run to the lakes but I think anything that trails it comes under . 

( who knows the 1st could Cole under and redevelope ) but I am waiting for a PNA rise and thats around day 9/10.

So you may get your snowy winter off to.a fast start 

The potential is certainly there. During strong blocks, the probability of measurable snow in such places as New York and Newark is more than 50% above climatology. An AO-/PNA+ pattern could be conducive to such a storm.

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36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The potential is certainly there. During strong blocks, the probability of measurable snow in such places as New York and Newark is more than 50% above climatology. An AO-/PNA+ pattern could be conducive to such a storm.

Y

 

30 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Maybe he forgot about a north wind and the city

Ohh I know allllll about it. Hey well see. I was just making the point that the CAA likely peaked during the day light hours. It’s so freakin early the sun is still relatively strong. Just look at the mt Washington obs from today the cold air was aloft during the day 

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7 hours ago, dWave said:

I cant remember a time with temps this cold with so many trees still with leaves, looks 50%+ green for that matter. Im curious to see if a tree full of green leaves just shrivels up in a day or so after low 20s type temps.

 

1990 and 1996 and maybe 2005 had the latest foliage seasons in recent years I believe.  It probably happened in 96.  I doubt 1990 had any days this cold in November from what I remember.  2005 I don't think was anywhere near this late, it just was somewhat delayed compared to normal.

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New York City Area Records as of 10 pm:

New York City:
…JFK: 26° (broke record of 28° set in 2004)
…LGA: 28° (broke record of 31° set 1956)
…NYC: 26° (broke record of 27° set in 1914)
Newark: 26° (broke record of 27° in 2004)

Bridgeport, Danbury and White Plains were all within 3° or less of their daily record low temperature.
 

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City Area Records as of 10 pm:

New York City:
...JFK: 28° (tied record set in 2004)
...LGA: 29° (broke record of 31° set 1956)
...NYC: 26° (broke record of 27° set in 1914)
Newark: 27° (tied record set in 2004)

Bridgeport, Danbury and White Plains were all within 3° or less of their daily record low temperature.
 

Newark is down to 26 now

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