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November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

no the leaves will be history-often around here when we get a hard freeze and the leaves are still on the trees-they will just drop off almost all at once...whether they are green or yellow etc.

Exactly, it’s not going to kill the trees. The November 12 snowstorm is a good example. Other then that I don’t think we have ever had such a hard freeze at the current foliage level in our lifetimes. It’s going to be interesting and I for one am curious as to what will happen. We aren’t talking your normal late droppers like Norway Mapples and Pears. This is going to effect allot of sensitive vegetation. I fully expect a major full scale leaf drop this weekend. 

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Exactly, it’s not going to kill the trees. The November 12 snowstorm is a good example. Other then that I don’t think we have ever had such a hard freeze at the current foliage level in our lifetimes. It’s going to be interesting and I for one am curious as to what will happen. We aren’t talking your normal late droppers like Norway Mapples and Pears. This is going to effect allot of sensitive vegetation. I fully expect a major full scale leaf drop this weekend. 


Thank you for the clarification!


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17 minutes ago, Morris said:

Euro weeklies say total pattern flip.

They don’t make sense. They are showing an El Niño pattern. We have a coupled La Niña reflection in the atmosphere and have for months; low AAM, classic La Niña tropical convective forcing and the PDO is dropping. The pattern it shows at week 4 is not jiving with the current Niña picture. View with extreme caution. Not saying what it shows is not possible but it is not making a whole lot of sense

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On 11/6/2017 at 6:14 PM, snowman19 said:

They don’t make sense. They are showing an El Niño pattern. We have a coupled La Niña reflection in the atmosphere and have for months; low AAM, classic La Niña tropical convective forcing and the PDO is dropping. The pattern it shows at week 4 is not jiving with the current Niña picture. View with extreme caution. Not saying what it shows is not possible but it is not making a whole lot of sense

The EPS and GEFS connect the ridge from Alaska over the pole all the way to the Kara sea after day 10.

You have a forecast - 3 SD AO with some of the coldest anomalies showing up in Canada that should produce something in the northeast around Thanksgiving.

You can see the massive ridging that set up through the Alluetians which has been bending that PAC jet over the pole and that makes total sense.

So you have no warm zonal PAC air in the pattern.

We have had a SE ridge which will get depressed as the trough gets stuck under the high lattitude blocking.

You're going to get off to a fast start here and the week 4 CFS agreed with this a week ago.

As long as those heights build over the pole and the weeklies show that throughout its forecast period then you are going to push of the SE ridge.

Of course you treat every 3 to 6 week forecast with caution but if that blocking is real then we could get off to fast start.

I think we do.

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On 11/3/2017 at 5:23 PM, NJwx85 said:

I’m not buying a shift towards below normal temps next week. Highs for early November in the city should still be near 50. 

Instead I believed we see a gradual cool down followed by longer stretches of milder weather, sort of like how tomorrow will only be in the upper 50’s while Sunday and Monday should bring middle to upper 60’s, followed by another quick cool down.

It seems the ridge tries to rebuild, and then these fast moving Northern stream disturbances, almost clippers attempt to bring in a cold shot, only to be quickly shunted out. I suspect once the blocking regime re-establishes itself, the southeast ridge will win out.

Still believe this???

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There's a small subset of La Nina Novembers with strong blocking near the Aleutians extending to Greenland. It happened before in 2010, 1995,1985, and 1950.

 

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And the Decembers in those years were pretty fab.

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1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

The EPS and GEFS connect the ridge from Alaska over the pole all the way to the Kara sea after day 10.

You have a forecast - 3 SD AO with some of the coldest anomalies showing up in Canada that should produce something substantial in the northeast around Thanksgiving.

You can see the massive ridging that set up through the Alluetians which has been bending that PAC jet over the pole and that makes total sense.

So you have no warm zonal PAC air in the pattern.

We have had a SE ridge which will get depressed as the trough gets stuck under the high lattitude blocking.

You're going to get off to a fast start here and the week 4 CFS agreed with this a week ago.

As long as those heights build over the pole and the weeklies show that throughout its forecast period then you are going to push of the SE ridge.

Of course you treat every 3 to 6 week forecast with caution but if that blocking is real then we could get off to fast start.

I think we do.

No argument with you. The reason I’m saying to view it with suspicion is that this year, we have classic Niña forcing. The El Niño setup it shows by week 4 is very suspect but possible. Guess we’ll see

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15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think too many people are being over zealous right now. We're seeing hints of a colder pattern, there's nothing definite.

I agree. People forget that just because it’s cold doesn’t mean it will snow. We have been threading the needle the last few years big time. It could easily just be 30/40s for highs and dry. I would rather save this pattern for January or February anyway. 

 

Ohh and coastal buddy’s the waters 63 degrees. I’m still surfing in a spring/fall suit. This screams precip issues to me ala October 2011 

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36 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

2010-2011 a good analog moving forward ?

The models are showing alot of blocking. That winter was also front loaded.

I believe that winter the cold anomalies shifted about midway through and as soon as they did the winter basically ended.  I may be confusing it with another La Niña winter but I thihk I'm correct.  

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