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Weekend Zombie Morph Storm Discobs


nw baltimore wx

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47 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Was the radar supposed to look like that at this point? Nice split going on now

I think the hrrr showed a split and a very defined cutoff, though the main slug was shown to be a bit more west. Also shows a break for the morning and then steady rain moving in for the evening and overnight just in time for the DC showdown this afternoon. 

 

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 It will be interesting to see how this goes right now the suns coming out in my location it’s pushing 70° ....Not looking very frightful at all in fact it looks like practically every other weekend so far. Above normal temps and rain that fails to produce.  Storms that blow up to our NE are often not that exciting.  Let’s see what this does.  

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If one goes back through all of the NAM nest runs of the past two days, while the details have moved around, they've consistently shown that the Sunday morning precip would produce a "screw zone" for a decent chunk of DC Metro.     They've also been consistent that the late afternoon period into the overnight will bring a soaker.    Now that we're into HRRR range, nothing has changed.

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57 minutes ago, high risk said:

If one goes back through all of the NAM nest runs of the past two days, while the details have moved around, they've consistently shown that the Sunday morning precip would produce a "screw zone" for a decent chunk of DC Metro.     They've also been consistent that the late afternoon period into the overnight will bring a soaker.    Now that we're into HRRR range, nothing has changed.

Thanks

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probably worth noting now that the newer HRRR and NAM nest runs do not like big rain amounts in northern VA.   The further northeast you are from DC, the better you'll do.

 

<edit>   this is pretty uninspiring for my 1000th post.    I was hoping it would say "I see the rapidly rotating wall cloud just off to my northeast."

 

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4 minutes ago, high risk said:

probably worth noting now that the newer HRRR and NAM nest runs do not like big rain amounts in northern VA.   The further northeast you are from DC, the better you'll do.

 

<edit>   this is pretty uninspiring for my 1000th post.    I was hoping it would say "I see the rapidly rotating wall cloud just off to my northeast."

 

Yea, i haven't been too excited about precip totals. 0z euro was 1-2" with some higher amounts splattered around. Mosty eastern areas which makes sense given the synoptic pattern. All the models have shown some skip zones in our area in general. 

 

All the fun is packed into the comma/deform which won't get cranking here till later in the afternoon. Should be interesting on radar. Not the type of setup that you can extrapolate. It's going to blossom and intensify. Should be some banding that hits some areas pretty good. Won't know exactly where until it's happening. 

Even without big totals there should be a good period of wind driven rain during the late afternoon/evening. It will certainly feel like a big storm at times. 

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7 minutes ago, high risk said:

probably worth noting now that the newer HRRR and NAM nest runs do not like big rain amounts in northern VA.   The further northeast you are from DC, the better you'll do.

 

<edit>   this is pretty uninspiring for my 1000th post.    I was hoping it would say "I see the rapidly rotating wall cloud just off to my northeast."

 

Interesting.  This is no surprise to me at all.  Our best storms do not take this path regardless of what the models spit out.  The margin for error is slim for storms that blow up to our NE.  Waiting for wrap around?  It doesn’t happen much regardless of snow or rain.  My zone forecast last night had me at a high of 59 with falling temps and rain.  It’s 69 with mostly cloudy skies.  

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