Tropical Storm Phillipe

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
indicate that the system does not yet have a well-defined center. In
fact, the aircraft data and satellite imagery suggest that there are
multiple circulations embedded within a broader circulation at this
time. Given the lack of a well-defined center, the system is not a
tropical cyclone, but since tropical storm conditions are expected
to affect Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas in the next 24 to 36
hours, advisories are being initiated on the system as a potential
tropical cyclone at this time.

 

[the ghost of leroy]

sucks that we are wasting a gyre on something this lame

[Amped]

Lol 975mb 104kt HWRF.  Models seem to be showing peak intensity over the northern Bahamas around hr 45

 

 

 

[Amped]

Emerges off Cuba coast at hr30, hits NS by hour just before HR 72.  Wondering if that will be some kind of a record.

[Windspeed]

30 minutes ago, Amped said:

Lol 975mb 104kt HWRF.  Models seem to be showing peak intensity over the northern Bahamas around hr 45

HWRF does initialize as a broad low. It just manages to close off a tight vortex fairly rapidly prior to a fast trek over Cuba. It has the center passing the Isle of Youth around noon Saturday and already over the Florida Straits by sunset. Like I said in the other thread, I have little coinfidence in a hurricane developing so rapidly. It would be a fascinating storm to see go through this but it needs to get its act together fast over night. The 00z HWRF could just as easily go back to crap.

 

[Amped]

5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

HWRF does initialize as a broad low. It just manages to close off a tight vortex fairly rapidly prior to a fast trek over Cuba. It has the center passing the Isle of Youth around noon Saturday and already over the Florida Straits by sunset. Like I said in the other thread, I have little coinfidence in a hurricane developing so rapidly. It would be a fascinating storm to see go through this but it needs to get its act together fast over night. The 00z HWRF could just as easily go back to crap.

 

The approaching troff and the forward speed appear to be enhancing the winds up until ET transition.   GFS has 70kt  985mb so a cat1 isn't out of the question.

1002mb to 985mb in 15hrs? Meh twice as long as Harvey

[Windspeed]

Not classified as of the 11 PM EDT advisory. Intensity forecast has crept up slightly however to 50 kts. We're only 15 kts shy of a record, folks!

 

Environmental conditions appear at least somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 48 h, with light to moderate shear and strong upper-level divergence over the system. After that time, the system is expected to be absorbed into the aforementioned mid-latitude system and become a trough rotating around the larger circulation. The new intensity forecast is nudged upward slightly from the previous forecast and now shows a peak intensity of 50 kt before absorption. However, the forecast lies at the lower edge of the intensity guidance, and if the system can develop a better- defined inner core it could strengthen more than currently forecast.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 18.2N 84.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

12H 28/1200Z 20.1N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 29/0000Z 22.9N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

36H 29/1200Z 26.2N 77.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER

48H 30/0000Z 30.8N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

72H 31/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

 

$$

Forecaster Beven

[hlcater]

Has been classified as TD-18.

[Amped]

968mb 89kts just east of the 40/70 benchmark and  I thought only the NAM would show something that ridiculous.

[Amped]

Also NHC says recon found this better organized than yesterday.  I'm not seeing it.

[Amped]

Now a TS near Havanna.   Lowest pressure is in the keys and strongest convection is well south of cuba and is being handled poorly by all models.

[gymengineer]

Such a weird combination of graphics and messages in this 5 pm forecast package. I guess the NHC didn't want to completely decouple the TS wind field from the center in the wind field map, but then they used that reasoning in the discussion to not have warnings up for FL anyway. This must be one of the only times, if not the only time, when a TS's COC is forecast to actually come ashore in less than 12 hours without a warning.  

[Amped]

2 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Such a weird combination of graphics and messages in this 5 pm forecast package. I guess the NHC didn't want to completely decouple the TS wind field from the center in the wind field map, but then they used that reasoning in the discussion to not have warnings up for FL anyway. This must be one of the only times, if not the only time, when a TS's COC is forecast to actually come ashore in less than 12 hours without a warning.  

When there are 5 centers of Circulation there's better odds at least 1 will make landfall in south Florida.

[Windspeed]

Even though the forecast is within 10 MPH of a hurricane, I'm afraid our record-breaking scenario is dead. Even if the system were to strengthen enough to support hurricane force, it may be too late or after transitioning is already occurring. I would be doubtful the NHC would pull the trigger. But perhaps this system has a short term surprise even if it's running out of time.

[Windspeed]

Phillipe's old surface vortex is stripped clean above 700mb. 50 kts of shear will certainly do that. You can see the naked swirl being pulled east or ESE through the Florida Straits due to stronger cyclonic flow around an intensifying circulation just east of Florida. The NHC notes Phillipe from a tropical standpoint is a mess. The more threatening feature is clearly the baroclinic bomb that is evolving out of that stronger elongated circulation currently over the Gulf Stream. The contained MCS is moving away from Florida. This will continue to organize and intensify all the way into New England. If we're going to eventually call the new deepening baroclinic circulation Phillipe, fair enough. But the old surface vortex looks dead to rights.

[Amped]

Maybe this should count as 3 named storms

[Amped]

Euro did the best with this storm.  Showed an elongated mess the whole time.  Also the center is still moving ENE

[Windspeed]

Speaking of ECMWF, I do hope its 925mb and 10-meter outputs are being overdone. The model is just going completely nuts with the LLJ. If any warm slot and the remains of Phillipe's coastal vort is in that right front entrance to mix down, coastal New England is going to get jacked in the jaw.
 

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

 

[Windspeed]

Last advisory discussion for posterity:

000
WTNT43 KNHC 292032
TCDAT3
Remnants Of Philippe Discussion Number. 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL. AL182017
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

During the past few hours, strong vertical wind shear in excess of 50 kt, plus merger with a cold front, has taken its toll on Philippe's previously well-defined low-level circulation. The system has become elongated north-to-south within the frontal zone, and a new low-level center may have developed about 150 nmi farther north along the frontal boundary near NOAA buoy 41002. Now that Philippe has lost any tropical or subtropical characteristics due to merger with a synoptic-scale cold front, the system is declared to have dissipated.

Much of the latent heat and deep convection associated with Philippe's remnants will likely be drawn into a larger extratropical low pressure that is developing near the outer banks of North Carolina, aiding in that intensification process. Although the developing powerful low near the Outer Banks is not directly associated with Philippe, interests along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts should closely monitor forecast products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center, NOAA Ocean Prediction Center, and your local National Weather Service forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 31.0N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Amped]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Speaking of ECMWF, I do hope its 925mb and 10-meter outputs are being overdone. The model is just going completely nuts with the LLJ. If any warm slot and the remains of Phillipe's coastal vort is in that right front entrance to mix down, coastal New England is going to get jacked in the jaw.
 

 

The western end of it might be overdone, but anywhere east of the CT river is definitely getting clobbered.

[Paragon]

16 hours ago, Amped said:

The western end of it might be overdone, but anywhere east of the CT river is definitely getting clobbered.

Some updates on wind gusts- 75 mph Suffolk County, Long Island.  82 mph on Cape Cod and a whopping 132 mph on Mt Washington!  And now a 93 mph gust on the beach in MA has just been verified.

I also got to see my barometer get down below 29 inches for the first time in many years, got to 28.99, others in the area got even lower and down in the 970mb range.

 

This is the fourth big storm I've seen in late October- must be something about this time of year ;-) First it was the "Perfect" storm, then Snowtober then Sandy, now this!

 

 

 

 

 

[Amped]

11 hours ago, Paragon said:

Some updates on wind gusts- 75 mph Suffolk County, Long Island.  82 mph on Cape Cod and a whopping 132 mph on Mt Washington!  And now a 93 mph gust on the beach in MA has just been verified.

I also got to see my barometer get down below 29 inches for the first time in many years, got to 28.99, others in the area got even lower and down in the 970mb range.

 

This is the fourth big storm I've seen in late October- must be something about this time of year ;-) First it was the "Perfect" storm, then Snowtober then Sandy, now this!

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah you gotta subtract like 20mph from the euro max gust maps

[Windspeed]

Yeah you gotta subtract like 20mph from the euro max gust maps

This system was a great example of just how destructive 50-70 mph winds can be however when you have heavy foliated deciduous trees. Leaves were near or just past peak but still attached. Parts of NH, upper Connecticut, Vermont, interior Massachusetts, W. Maine have sustained severe tree and powerline damage. It's not just at the immediate coastline and over the islands. Many hundreds of thousands without power. Probably the worst widespread event they have experienced since 1998.

[Paragon]

5 hours ago, Windspeed said:

This system was a great example of just how destructive 50-70 mph winds can be however when you have heavy foliated deciduous trees. Leaves were near or just past peak but still attached. Parts of NH, upper Connecticut, Vermont, interior Massachusetts, W. Maine have sustained severe tree and powerline damage. It's not just at the immediate coastline and over the islands. Many hundreds of thousands without power. Probably the worst widespread event they have experienced since 1998.

I also thought that we might have some destructive effects because the heaviest rains came before the highest winds, thus the soil was loosened up, and also the fact that the high winds changed direction- first they were out of the SE and then the West.

 

PS interesting here on Western Long Island, although our gusts only peaked around 50 mph we had sustained winds of tropical storm force around 40 mph.

 

[Windspeed]

I also thought that we might have some destructive effects because the heaviest rains came before the highest winds, thus the soil was loosened up, and also the fact that the high winds changed direction- first they were out of the SE and then the West.

 

PS interesting here on Western Long Island, although our gusts only peaked around 50 mph we had sustained winds of tropical storm force around 40 mph.