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Sunday's Screaming Southeaster


CT Rain

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That would be windy. 

Still has that little turd trying to redevelop on the far SE side...not sure how much that would ultimately disrupt the LLJ. We'll prob see a lot of model wiggles because of the tropical convection out there.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Still has that little turd trying to redevelop on the far SE side...not sure how much that would ultimately disrupt the LLJ. We'll prob see a lot of model wiggles because of the tropical convection out there.

There is quite the jet at 850 on the freebie tropical tidbit site. Looks like it crosses SNE.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still has that little turd trying to redevelop on the far SE side...not sure how much that would ultimately disrupt the LLJ. We'll prob see a lot of model wiggles because of the tropical convection out there.

Yeah but it's a lot less significant with that SE microlow than the 00z run was.

Funny to see both the UKMet and ECMWF at exactly 974mb over NJ or SE NY. Good consensus there.

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7 minutes ago, Chinook said:

The 12z GFS forecast sounding at Nantucket has 48 kt at the surface and about 89-90 kt at 1 km above ground (3000 ft above ground.) That might translate to a near Category-1 wind gusts.

not that anyone isn't per se ... but I'd like that shocking depth back to standard PP recovery rate taken seriously there.  Not sure we can plumb the surface to a 970 mb (or lower) depth and just blase restore that much mass without hell to pay - 

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not that anyone isn't per se ... but I'd like that shocking depth back to standard PP recovery rate taken seriously there.  Not sure we can plumb the surface to a 970 mb (or lower) depth and just blase restore that much mass without hell to pay - 

okay Tip.  Translate that down 25 IQ points so I can understand what your saying!

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10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

okay Tip.  Translate that down 25 IQ points so I can understand what your saying!

:)  what part ? 

uh...seriously don't see what's hard to understand there.   oh PP ?  that just means pressure pattern - I've seen it used in AFDs around from time to time so figured folks would know.  anyway, standard PP ...1013 or so MB at surface. so figure, if the low gets down into the high 960s as it is passing across eastern Massachusetts, how are we going to get (restore) the surface pressure back to normal? 

wind ... 

but it also depends.  sometimes these set ups don't produce as big as they look like they could.  this is definitely one of those candidates that looks like it could. we'll see.  

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27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

50mph gusts statewide with some higher gusts over the s and se coast. 2-5” of rain. 

Can't see why that wouldn't happen with 500 mb occlusion in SNY. The CCB with this is going to be really efficiently mixed down into that warm conveyor being sourced from the Caribbean. Incredible air mass juxtaposition there.  Summer and winter seperated by a few hundred miles...

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