CT Rain Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Pretty wild storm being modeled right now on Sunday with the potential for significant hydrology issues and strong winds depending on the low track. Some of the questions to be resolved include figuring out the interaction between the tropical low racing north and the developing storm off the east coast. The op ECMWF is most concerning for coastal Maine with a 960mb low slingshotting into York County with hurricane force winds (and likely a devastating storm surge) near Portland. While that's unlikely to verify it shows how dynamic the storm is. After the rain this week seeing big rain totals definitely raises the SOS signal. Huge swaths of the area in maxed out QPF M-Climate off the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Perfect and concise overview... This will ( I suspect ) be a great learning kit evolution/event for folks - I was mentioning in the other threads that I think this system has some chance to do what a lot fail to do, which is actually bring the wind goods on the wrap around isallobaric restoring. But agreed - and that's only one facet. This system could impact for a few different methods/reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 I was just looking at the 0Z Euro. 963mb over Portland. Hurricane-force gusts along the coast. Very impressive after months of boring weather. Got to get these leaves off the trees fast or could be some real power/damage issues... The only thing missing is a real cold air mass to bring some heavy snow to places west of where ever the center passes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Wonder with the ground being saturated from this current storm that winds may do more uprooting of trees than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2017 Author Share Posted October 26, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Wonder with the ground being saturated from this current storm that winds may do more uprooting of trees than normal. Yes - plus rain likely starts falling well ahead of the low again Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 More rain than Irene on the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Rain is so mundane. Hopefully we see Euro move back to the HRV track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rain is so mundane. Hopefully we see Euro move back to the HRV track Yeah, 4" of rain after 6" is quite boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Ryan where is that M percentile link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2017 Author Share Posted October 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ryan where is that M percentile link? http://ssd.wrh.noaa.gov/satable/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: http://ssd.wrh.noaa.gov/satable/ Oh it's here....I know this one. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Wonder with the ground being saturated from this current storm that winds may do more uprooting of trees than normal. Over to your west in the hudsonvalley, the fall foliage is running late this year thus resulting in the trees having more leaves. And asCTRain mentioned, rain in advance will soften things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 NAM came west tucking close like Ukie, Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 What's up with extreme rain events following me around? Hurricane Joaquin in 2015, Hurricane Matthew in 2016, and now this? This one could be historic for the flooding even if winds under-perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Man Irene 2.0 for VT. Covered bridges FTL. COngrats extreme ern MA and esp Maine for winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2017 Author Share Posted October 26, 2017 Kevin isn't going to like the GFS. Not much wind around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Kevin isn't going to like the GFS. Not much wind around here. Mostly CC to Cape Ann and maybe clipping S ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Kevin isn't going to like the GFS. Not much wind around here. Tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2017 Author Share Posted October 26, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Mostly CC to Cape Ann and maybe clipping S ME. Bombs out a bit later and doesn't tuck into the coast like the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2017 Author Share Posted October 26, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Tossed It seems totally possible to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Mostly CC to Cape Ann and maybe clipping S ME. What type of winds are we looking at for Cape Ann? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: What type of winds are we looking at for Cape Ann? They get some 40-50 knot stuff sustained...which is pretty solid. Prob some gusts a bit higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: More rain than Irene on the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: They get some 40-50 knot stuff sustained...which is pretty solid. Prob some gusts a bit higher than that. Wow. Flying back from DC tomorrow so haven’t been following this closely. Hopefully this is an outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Really need this to occlude 6 hrs faster to get the higher winds further into the interior. The coastal plain from RI up to central ME remains in the game regardless, which is what I was pointing to yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, CT Rain said: It seems totally possible to me. It sure does. I know there are folks that want a big wind event....but I think the possibility of big winds for alot of the area is just not realistic. S Coast and SE Coasts sure....but unless this thing really bombs out, and takes a great track(West of CT) the winds aren't going to be a big deal for most people. Rain...well that's another story. If the Euro at 2:00 pm shows a tucked bomb...then we have a classic battle ensuing. Hey, it's something to watch and track so let the fun begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 15 minutes ago, CT Rain said: It seems totally possible to me. I’ll take the Nam, Euro , Ukie combo until they change (when or if they do) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ll take the Nam, Euro , Ukie combo until they change (when or if they do) The 84hr NAM that isn't in range yet? He who extrapolates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: The 84hr NAM that isn't in range yet? He who extrapolates... Usually eja***lates because of the weenie solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 27 minutes ago, CT Rain said: It seems totally possible to me. Only when it produces the solution we CTers want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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