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Sunday's Screaming Southeaster


CT Rain

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45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Always lowball ! Never get excited!!

There's a difference between excitement and forecasting.  

Emotions and operational forecasts don't mix.

Im thinking sustained 20s with gusts to 50mph for most of the interior.  

Good luck with your calls of 70+ outside the coast.

 

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20 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Starting to get that baroclinic leaf look. Reminds me a touch of Jan '15.

You can see the emerging cloud head over eastern NC at the inflection point where the upper vortmax is impinging on the baroclinic zone. It's always awesome to watch this happen in real time instead of just crude MetEd simulations.

 

oct29wv.gif.8152aaf1745df798d83b8b6ec2335a0b.gif

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26 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Lowballing and adjusting upward when warranted is better than crying wolf over and over. 

This isn't new in weather forecasting.

its a synoptic wind event in interior New England.  It could be decent and we'll see what the obs show when all is done.

Trees down doesn't mean 60+.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There's a difference between excitement and forecasting.  

Emotions and operational forecasts don't mix.

Im thinking sustained 20s with gusts to 50mph for most of the interior.

 

PF,  that would be a fairly strong fall/winter storm event but nothing really out of the ordinary.  

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Look at those weenie lows and how models struggle. You need to be easy to get the good winds. Otherwise it's 40-50 stuff. This is why it's a difficult call on where the uber stuff is. Compare the RGEM and 3 KM NAM. You'll see what I mean. Those meso lows will reduce the LLJ on west side, but you'll have absurd rain rates to compensate.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Brings Phillie up into NYC

CTzeNyU.jpg

Correct me if I'm wrong, other mets, but that's not really Philippe. Energy is transferring from Philippe into the developing baroclinic low just to north of it throughout this afternoon.

 

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This isn't new in weather forecasting.

its a synoptic wind event in interior New England.  It could be decent and we'll see what the obs show when all is done.

Trees down doesn't mean 60+.

I agree. While it should be a decent event, I'm not sure it's worth hyping it too much and expecting crazy winds of over 60 mph outside peaks. We'll see!

 

 

 

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