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Sunday's Screaming Southeaster

CT Rain

By CT Rain,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

How often do wind progs really pan out anywhere outside 15 miles from the ocean?  

That'll get heat from some but it's hard to forecast more than gusts to 50mph anywhere in the interior IMO.

That's prob why it is good to wait until you are within maybe 24-36 hours of the event. Wind is hard to do over the interior. We tend to actually mix down a bit better during big CAA winter events because you get a more unstable sounding. The southerly wind events can disappoint easier because of inversions...obviously not all of them do, but you typically have more red flags.

There's potential with this one, but I'd like to see a little more model agreement on placement of best LLJ and also the strength before going bullish on interior winds....by bullish I mean high wind warning stuff (50 knot gusts).

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Anecdotally from memory, the best southerly flow events seem to perform when there's some good convection to help mix it down. That happened in the Dec 17, 2000 cutter...this line of convection just blitzed through and mixed down a roaring LLJ and caused pretty good wind damage. I think the same thing happened in the January 14, 2006 wind event as well. This event does look like it could have some convection with it...so if we can get that plus fully warm sector at the surface, then we'll have a chance.

What we probably don't want is some sort of vestige of a low trying to redevelop over LI or something to the east of the main low. That would basically wedge us at the surface and you can probably forget about high winds anywhere except maybe Taylor Swift's house to the exposed spots on the Cape.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anecdotally from memory, the best southerly flow events seem to perform when there's some good convection to help mix it down. That happened in the Dec 17, 2000 cutter...this line of convection just blitzed through and mixed down a roaring LLJ and caused pretty good wind damage. I think the same thing happened in the January 14, 2006 wind event as well. This event does look like it could have some convection with it...so if we can get that plus fully warm sector at the surface, then we'll have a chance.

What we probably don't want is some sort of vestige of a low trying to redevelop over LI or something to the east of the main low. That would basically wedge us at the surface and you can probably forget about high winds anywhere except maybe Taylor Swift's house to the exposed spots on the Cape.

Dec 24th 1994

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anecdotally from memory, the best southerly flow events seem to perform when there's some good convection to help mix it down. That happened in the Dec 17, 2000 cutter...this line of convection just blitzed through and mixed down a roaring LLJ and caused pretty good wind damage. I think the same thing happened in the January 14, 2006 wind event as well. This event does look like it could have some convection with it...so if we can get that plus fully warm sector at the surface, then we'll have a chance.

What we probably don't want is some sort of vestige of a low trying to redevelop over LI or something to the east of the main low. That would basically wedge us at the surface and you can probably forget about high winds anywhere except maybe Taylor Swift's house to the exposed spots on the Cape.

Rather not have a Dec. 2000 repeat.  Losing power for 30 hours was bearable (snag from our woodlot took out a pole about 100 yards from the house), and the huge crash of thunder at 2 AM when I was about 10% awake brought my biggest adrenalin rush in recent memory.  However, we had to pick up 6-8000 cords of blowdowns on our Round Pond tract, 20 miles SW of Allagash village, including large bare-limbed hardwoods.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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Posted
24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anecdotally from memory, the best southerly flow events seem to perform when there's some good convection to help mix it down. That happened in the Dec 17, 2000 cutter...this line of convection just blitzed through and mixed down a roaring LLJ and caused pretty good wind damage. I think the same thing happened in the January 14, 2006 wind event as well. This event does look like it could have some convection with it...so if we can get that plus fully warm sector at the surface, then we'll have a chance.

What we probably don't want is some sort of vestige of a low trying to redevelop over LI or something to the east of the main low. That would basically wedge us at the surface and you can probably forget about high winds anywhere except maybe Taylor Swift's house to the exposed spots on the Cape.

Yeah that's the key. That crap low to the east. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It sure beats dry...glad we have big lows redeveloping.

A tenor of the autumn thus far I hope folks take note of..  This is not indigenous to just our local hemispheric scope either ...  there's been a tendency all over the world (really) for proficient phasing, just as the ensuing cyclone season is in its infancy this year.  

I suggest that is important.  I just watched the evolution of a NW Atlantic hyper bomb last week that was really a fusion of a hybrid circulation remnant with a chancy buck shot polar S/W that got injected out of N Ontario.  That low was down in the mid 940s mb, proper.  The systems thus far (this last, and now this one as modeled) are not extinguishing momentum like they did much of last year, and the winter prior, as they come E of ~ 100 W.. They are turning the corner with heights falling, not filling ...with lesser apparent shear/absorption of wind stream velocities as their southern components traverse the TV area. 

That's a big deal for me.  Those velocities down there were horrendously huge pretty much end to end last year and the year prior... the majority of time, and it quite literally stole a lot of kinematics from the individual waves that would/might have otherwise been more proficient cyclogen entities. 

Perhaps this early tendency for 'less robbing' and shearing, and more energetics being conserved in the actual S/W physical presence in the flows...  won't last, but, at no time for nearly 20 months did this sort of wave conservation show up this successful, so that is an interesting step in the direction of less clawing and scraping one's regions to seasonal storm frequency and vitality.   ...I almost wonder if the hang-over of the super Nino is just finally minored out... whatever -

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 Dec 24th 1994ish as long as the inversion breaks and we get tropical air .  Peeps should understand that it has happened before and not to offhand dismiss progged winds. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_1994_nor'easter

That was more of a nor'easter. This is different. I know there was a hybrid argument, but this situation is sort of like a rapidly developing low.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

A tenor of the autumn thus far I hope folks take note of..  This is not indigenous to just our local hemispheric scope either ...  there's been a tendency all over the world (really) for proficient phasing, just as the ensuing cyclone season is in its infancy this year.  

I suggest that is important.  I just watched the evolution of a NW Atlantic hyper bomb last week that was really a fusion of a hybrid circulation remnant with a chancy buck shot polar S/W that got injected out of N Ontario.  That low was down in the mid 940s mb, proper.  The systems thus far (this last, and now this one as modeled) are not extinguishing momentum like they did much of last year, and the winter prior, as they come E of ~ 100 W.. They are turning the corner with heights falling, not filling ...with lesser apparent shear/absorption of wind stream velocities as their southern components traverse the TV area. 

That's a big deal for me.  Those velocities down there were horrendously huge pretty much end to end last year and the year prior... the majority of time, and it quite literally stole a lot of kinematics from the individual waves that would/might have otherwise been more proficient cyclogen entities. 

Perhaps this early tendency for 'less robbing' and shearing, and more energetics being conserved in the actual S/W physical presence in the flows...  won't last, but, at no time for nearly 20 months did this sort of wave conservation show up this successful, so that is an interesting step in the direction of less clawing and scraping one's regions to seasonal storm frequency and vitality.   ...I almost wonder if the hang-over of the super Nino is just finally minored out... whatever -

 

Yea. You were on the non phasing-messy train last two winters/years so its good to read your global thoughts on how things are beginning to swing back the other way. 

 

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