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November 2017 Discussion

645 posts in this topic

4 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

And poof...just like that....the big, sustained warm-up the GFS was showing is gone in the long range on the 12z runs. Not saying its right or wrong...just stating what it shows. Three days or so of warm....in a sea of below normal temps for the next 16 days.

 

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

Good.

But... It was never showing anything sustained.

It was a 72 hour period at best... and the high temps were near 70. 

Garden variety warm sector from a northern state bowling ball low.

You guys are ignoring the Euro for some reason which has been consistently showing warmer values than the GFS and for a longer stretch.

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Models are trending to a big time -PNA at least for awhile(hello La Niña).However,cold air is still pouring into Canada thanks to ridging near Alaska. That pattern would probably bring very changeable weather around here. Periods of warm and cold.

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32 minutes ago, roardog said:

Models are trending to a big time -PNA at least for awhile(hello La Niña).However,cold air is still pouring into Canada thanks to ridging near Alaska. That pattern would probably bring very changeable weather around here. Periods of warm and cold.

Helps enhance the gradient pattern even more. Keeping BC/AB/SK/MB cold is the best thing for us going into winter.

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6 hours ago, Stebo said:

This year looks to be opposite, which is very good. The gradient that we have been seeing already on the models shows the potential this winter will have. We haven't had a winter with a strong temperature gradient in a while.

2015-2016 was a gradient winter.

The problem was all of the semi-formidable storms kept getting ripped to shreds by the confluent upper-level flow.

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Just now, Powerball said:

2015-2016 was a gradient winter.

The problem was all of the semi-formidable storms kept getting ripped to shreds.

Too much confluence along the EC that winter if I remember correctly.

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6 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

And poof...just like that....the big, sustained warm-up the GFS was showing is gone in the long range on the 12z runs. Not saying its right or wrong...just stating what it shows. Three days or so of warm....in a sea of below normal temps for the next 16 days.

the torch is back...

and don't worry, it's gonna be a mega blowtorch. Nov is gonna see some very warm anomalies.

gfs_T850_us_41.png

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2 hours ago, Powerball said:

2015-2016 was a gradient winter.

The problem was all of the semi-formidable storms kept getting ripped to shreds by the confluent upper-level flow.

I wouldn't really call that a gradient winter overall... at least in the classic sense as it's usually used when describing a pattern that is colder than average north and warmer than average farther south.

59f3dc4806543_cd2607fb90584bb76a04fe88fc501_299_19_19_50_prcp.png.841b1d651b68037df40c3209635a6635.png

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I wouldn't really call that a gradient winter overall... at least in the classic sense as it's usually used when describing a pattern that is colder than average north and warmer than average farther south.

59f3dc4806543_cd2607fb90584bb76a04fe88fc501_299_19_19_50_prcp.png.841b1d651b68037df40c3209635a6635.png

Yeah if anything that is a very weak gradient especially with the warmer anomalies further north.

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1 hour ago, rainsucks said:

the torch is back...

and don't worry, it's gonna be a mega blowtorch. Nov is gonna see some very warm anomalies.

gfs_T850_us_41.png

 

This was you yesterday morning.  You're on the mega warm November train after a day or two of model runs that don't even go out to the midpoint of the month?

 

On 10/26/2017 at 4:30 AM, rainsucks said:

Will probably end up closer to normal than the past couple months. Below normal I highly doubt though. EURO already showing some anomalous warmth at the end of its run too. Extremely volatile pattern to say the least...

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

08-09 as well.  Maybe even a better example.

cd108.70.62.50.299.19.40.23.prcp.png

Yep a bit displaced to the south for the region though.

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1 hour ago, rainsucks said:

the torch is back...

and don't worry, it's gonna be a mega blowtorch. Nov is gonna see some very warm anomalies.

gfs_T850_us_41.png

There's no torch coming. If you consider upper 60s for 3 days a torch.

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1 hour ago, rainsucks said:

the torch is back...

and don't worry, it's gonna be a mega blowtorch. Nov is gonna see some very warm anomalies.

 

 

20 minutes ago, Jonger said:

There's no torch coming. If you consider upper 60s for 3 days a torch.

 

jonger.png

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While the Z'S of current patterns have reduced the Wx fun factors of late. The clash of the nista's, is helping me get through the tough days of fall..... 

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23 hours ago, Stebo said:

Several days of near or above record temps would be unprecedented. November 2015 we did achieve that and it was unprecedented then, it would be again this time around.

Several days in a row of record temps is impressive, not unprecedented. However my comment was much more geared towards rainsucks calling one euro model run (the same model he recently bashed as being so unreliable lately) unprecedented. And even that at face value it wasn't record surface temps in Chicago (maybe out west, not sure).

 

In any event as you mentioned a gradient pattern setting up potentially showing signs for Winter. And that could not make me more happy at this point, regardless of what November actually brings. Actually, a gradient pattern is probably why the models keep going so up-and-down with where the anomalies are going to rest. It creates entertainment between jonger and rainsucks on a run to run basis, but the take away is that much colder than normal to the North much warmer to normal than the South equals classic gradient. November averages 1.5" of snow, the following 4 months average 40". As anxious as I get for snow starting November 1st, like a switch lol, long term implications for a stormy Winter are my main focus. 

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19 hours ago, Jonger said:

We are looking at a well below normal start to November.

We have had awful luck with Novembers over the last 10 years... It's about damn time we get a cold one.

 

November's 2013 and 2014 were very cold. In fact November 2014 ranks in Detroit's all time coldest novembers list. Yet they both yielded light snow. On the other hand, November 2015 was a full on torch and had a big snowstorm. Moral of the story, November temps and snowfall aren't necessarily a matching set. I'm excited for the potential this coming Winter. Gradients definitely suck when you're on the wrong side of them, but typically in our region, in a Nina, a gradient Winter is exactly what we want. If that happens, we would certainly suffer through a few rainstorms, but would have more than our share of snow. 

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14 hours ago, Stebo said:

Here is a collection of 3 years that I think this winter might follow especially with the changeable weather.

cd108.70.62.50.299.19.41.49.prcp.png

:wub:. When 1998-99 is your worst analogue :wub:

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wondering if some areas in this subforum could set all-time monthly highs with this kind of set-up? 

IMG_5408.PNG

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15 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

wondering if some areas in this subforum could set all-time monthly highs with this kind of set-up? 

IMG_5408.PNG

Bringing up monthly records 9 days out?

Yes, it's a very warm look and we could be talking records (at least daily) in some areas should something like that pan out, but it's a long way off. 

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LOL at Monthly record highs.

Detroit's November record is 81F.

The warmest temps on the GFS don't even hit 70.

Will we exceed 70? Maybe, but we aren't even forecast to get that warm -- yet.

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1 hour ago, Jonger said:

LOL at Monthly record highs.

Detroit's November record is 81F.

The warmest temps on the GFS don't even hit 70.

Will we exceed 70? Maybe, but we aren't even forecast to get that warm -- yet.

GFS slants crazy toward climo with 2m temperatures. It is useless in this range for 2m temperatures. Of course we go over this every off season warm up.

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