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November 2017 Discussion


hlcater

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11 hours ago, DAFF said:

I'm enjoying this gradual switch to winter. Nothing worse than a quick cold snap and some accumulations followed by a hot mess like last season. The snow and cold will be here before long...

I have also long said, that for whatever reason, people tend to forget what happens in December when the Winter is over. Last Winter it was the 13th snowiest December on record at Detroit, but so many people acted like it was a "non Winter" (and keep in mind, we still had more snow from January to March than most). On the flip side, coming off the historic 2013-14 Winter, the Winter of 2014-15 was another severe Winter. November, January, & February were brutally cold (and the last half of Winter had very deep snow as well). So once Winter ended, people were lamenting how this was the 2nd straight severe Winter - not as severe as last, but still a lot worse than normal. Naturally they had long forgotten that it was the 2nd least snowy December on record. 

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6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have also long said, that for whatever reason, people tend to forget what happens in December when the Winter is over. Last Winter it was the 13th snowiest December on record at Detroit, but so many people acted like it was a "non Winter" (and keep in mind, we still had more snow from January to March than most). On the flip side, coming off the historic 2013-14 Winter, the Winter of 2014-15 was another severe Winter. November, January, & February were brutally cold (and the last half of Winter had very deep snow as well). So once Winter ended, people were lamenting how this was the 2nd straight severe Winter - not as severe as last, but still a lot worse than normal. Naturally they had long forgotten that it was the 2nd least snowy December on record. 

 

The winters of 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 were complete turds. Yes the winter of 2014-2015 was cold, very cold at times especially November and February, but December 2014 we tied the record for the least snowiest December on record with just a T, also tied again the following year in 2015. February 2015 we were  also whiffed again by “GHD II” almost completely. I agree though, the winter of 2013-2014 was the harshest winter I’ve ever experienced by far, weekly 4-6” snowstorms, the arctic unloading relentlessly, and not to mention one of my favorite storms ever, major winter storm “Ion”. 

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1 minute ago, Chambana said:

 

The winters of 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 were complete turds. Yes the winter of 2014-2015 was cold, very cold at times especially November and February, but December 2014 we tied the record for the least snowiest December on record with just a T, also tied again the following year in 2015. February 2015 we were  also whiffed again by “GHD II” almost completely. I agree though, the winter of 2013-2014 was the harshest winter I’ve ever experienced by far, weekly 4-6” snowstorms, the arctic unloading relentlessly, and not to mention one of my favorite storms ever, major winter storm “Ion”. 

I don't know these storm names.  Was that the January 5 storm?

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Just now, Chambana said:

Yes you are correct. Never seen heavy snow at 18 degrees, followed by the coldest air mass I can remember. I remember waking up 1/6/14 with a windchill of -40

Yeah that storm followed immediately by the arctic plunge were the top highlights of the winter for me.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah that storm followed immediately by the arctic plunge were the top highlights of the winter for me.

That winter featured damn near everything besides a white Christmas ironically. Thundersnow in February, snow depth of 12” for 2 weeks, hardly any thaws, just an all around punishing brutal winter. My father was born in 1961 and remembers the winters of the late 70s very well, including blizzard of 78, and agrees 2013-2014 was the harshest winter we will ever see around these parts .

 

This late November warmup is really going to chew away at the negative departure we built up this month. 58 degrees today after reaching 61 yesterday. 

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15 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

EXTREMELY unlucky that the thermal ridge doesn't pass over our area until Monday night. Monday would be very warm if the ridge could move in just a little bit quicker. Just awful timing.

gfs_T850_us_9.png

You should still get a couple days in the 50s out of it (maybe near 60 on Tuesday especially if the front slows down a touch).  Enjoy what you get.

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Have mid 60s in the point for tomorrow, so another warm one on tap.  Record in MLI/CID is 70/69, so we'll give it another good run.  Don't think we'll perform as well as Friday, but mid to upper 60s look possible.  HRRRx keeps temps around 60ish, which is about 6-7 degrees cooler than what it forecast for Friday.  It did the best out of all the models regarding temps, although even it was too conservative that day.

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Have mid 60s in the point for tomorrow, so another warm one on tap.  Record in MLI/CID is 700/69, so we'll give it another good run.  Don't think we'll perform as well as Friday, but mid to upper 60s look possible.  HRRRx keeps temps around 60ish, which is about 6-7 degrees cooler than what it forecast for Friday.  It did the best out of all the models regarding temps, although even it was too conservative that day.

700 degrees at MLI? sheesh, that's a hot one, glad I wasnt around here for that.;)

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I've noticed this year when we get these long, benign weather patterns, when the shift does come it's just as dramatic on the flip.  Something to look forward to, perhaps...?

Not much going on here.  Weather story is the wind later today.  Despite being above freezing yesterday, the ground is still covered in snow imy, but I noticed last night down in Negaunee there were only piles and patches.

24129705_1895682120461670_7939766666031330423_n.jpg.cc0d35ed5a353a19111372f92f375471.jpg

 

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13 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Wow, what an awesome day outside. 62 degrees already at noon, very gentle breeze and full sun. One of the nicest late November days you will probably ever get. 

Looks like the negatives will basically get wiped out from about central IL-IN-OH southward. Those areas should finish the month a tad below to a tad warmer than average.

I noticed CMI is -0.3 

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Despite having similar 850 temps, we are way behind last Friday.  Friday's torch had everything going for it.  Today, on the other hand, we started colder, the wind is modest from the sse instead of strong sw, and a pretty good cirrus shield has been overspreading the state all day.  Friday, we were 70 by now, but today we're only slowly rising into the upper 50s.  I think all the locals and nws may end up too high(mid 60s).

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like the negatives will basically get wiped out from about central IL-IN-OH southward. Those areas should finish the month a tad below to a tad warmer than average.

I noticed CMI is -0.3 

Which is just incredible considering where we were about 7-10 days ago. I might be wrong on my stats but I believe if we can pull of a positive for the month of November that makes 24 out of the last 27 months to finish positive. 

 

CMI reporting 65 now, my personal station recording 67. 

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Beautiful morning sky after a wild and windy night.  Went to bed it was 32, temp spiked during the overnight to 41, now down to 37.  Lost probably an inch of snow.  Forecast is for 45 before it starts to fall back, so after 33" of snow and 1 month to the date with snow cover, I'm not sure what'll be left after today other than piles.  Winds ramp up again later today into tonight but should target mostly the Keweenaw and shoreline...

Certainly not the look I was expecting heading into the first part of December, but it's beautiful and I love it nonetheless.

IMG_3796.thumb.JPG.6b5b091fd09ec39dfee7826f3317109c.JPG

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