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November 2017 Discussion


hlcater

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4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The widespread dense fog this morning coated everything in a heavy frost, including paved areas.  Made for some slick spots driving to work.  Temp bottomed out at 25.  It really made the landscape look frozen with frost covering everything.  

I went birding at Cedar Lake after the fog lifted and the majority of the lake had a frozen surface, the first time I've seen that this season.

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20 hours ago, magoos0728 said:

Will be traveling over a few rivers and thru some woods from Atlanta area to SE Wisconsin next Tuesday.

 

Anything looking interesting for that time period?

That appears to be the least interesting period in the next 15 days.

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17 hours ago, Willh said:

Starting out nice up here. Have had snow cover since around October 26-27 I believe.

 

ZYY0TFM.jpg

This looks familar; Pat's Foods on 6th St? Visited family in Calumet this past summer for the first time in ~20 years. Beautiful country, obviously, but especially in the summer and winters. One day I will experience some winter days up there.

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2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

One interesting thing to note, regardless of how much snow anyone gets this November, it looks to end up a colder than normal for most of the Midwest. Going into the month, it looked milder than normal and we were told that in a LA Nina, November can be quite a tell tale sign for Winter temperature trends. 

Yep, no guarantees but a better sign for winter than having a warm month. 

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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh for sure no guarantees. I remember I was quite surprised at the findings because OVERALL, November temps show no correlation to winter temps. But in nina there is something of a correlation.

We are running about 6 degrees below average for the month, but still waiting upon the first inch of snow. I was hoping with this colder weather and active storm track, we might manage more. Looking at the forecast through the end of the month, we may have to wait until December. I know it is pretty normal at this time of the year for storms to track through the northern Great Lakes, but I hope that shifts south as winter sets in.

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25 minutes ago, blackrock said:

We are running about 6 degrees below average for the month, but still waiting upon the first inch of snow. I was hoping with this colder weather and active storm track, we might manage more. Looking at the forecast through the end of the month, we may have to wait until December. I know it is pretty normal at this time of the year for storms to track through the northern Great Lakes, but I hope that shifts south as winter sets in.

For sure you and I are dealing with climo since snow across most of SMI in the first half of Nov is pretty darn rare outside of the LES belts. As for synoptic snow chances, it's not only about getting the systems to track south, but having cold enough air to get frozen stuff. That take a lot when avg highs are 50-ish. But, the shifting south has already begun with this weekend's system as most models originally had this going across the Straights. Now, it looks to be quite a bit south of that, closer to what could be the prime track for the winter months. Regardless if we see much snow the rest of the month (2013 gave mby only 1.1"), the overall pattern re-alignment underway in the next week should get enough cold air in place for our chances to ramp up heading into December. This very compressed chilly autumn's days are numbered. 

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2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

For sure you and I are dealing with climo since snow across most of SMI in the first half of Nov is pretty darn rare outside of the LES belts. As for synoptic snow chances, it's not only about getting the systems to track south, but having cold enough air to get frozen stuff. That take a lot when avg highs are 50-ish. But, the shifting south has already begun with this weekend's system as most models originally had this going across the Straights. Now, it looks to be quite a bit south of that, closer to what could be the prime track for the winter months. Regardless if we see much snow the rest of the month (2013 gave mby only 1.1"), the overall pattern re-alignment underway in the next week should get enough cold air in place for our chances to ramp up heading into December. This very compressed chilly autumn's days are numbered. 

True enough. Lake Michigan really diminishes our chances of getting good synoptic snow in November. The past two winters were so mild and kept Lake Michigan warm, that pretty much both seasons we dealt with a warm lake modifying any cold we got...and thus not great snowfall. A bit of trauma I think for me! Ha.

The pattern this month has been sort of odd. It has been below normal, but almost seems like "stale, cool air." Then again, a month of 40s and rain is about as blah to me as a month of 90 with sunshine. We'll see if we can get a bit of synoptic snow this weekend. Hopefully the cold rushes in while there is moisture still around.

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4 hours ago, Willh said:

What are some good models to look at? I subscribed to weatherbell, etc.

Weatherbell has it all.  NAM 3k, WRF-ARW, HRRR are three models that I use regularly when anticipating Lake effect or really any general forecast within 48 hours.

Ran has switched to all snow as of about 35 min ago.  Still expect several inches.  Lost all but an inch or two of the snow cover with the rain and fog today.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

cmillz, better get up early and go out and enjoy Saturday morning.  :lol:

This really has been one of the most depressing months I've ever seen in my life. The persistence of that east trough is something else. Don't even think 2013-2014 was that relentless.

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3 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Snow and wind mean business tonight!  30 mph gust in the past 15 min along with moderate snow (if not hvy at times).  Intensity has def gotten steadier since around 745. An inch of new snow so far.

It rained today in Indiana. Just in case you need a pick-me-up bouquet from a blast from your past.

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2 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

It rained today in Indiana. Just in case you need a pick-me-up bouquet from a blast from your past.

I lived it, man!  Tough being a snow junkie living in Indiana.

Fresh off the press hi-res model still showing a tight swath of 6"+ tonight.  If it keeps up the way it is now, it's likely to happen.  Classic rain to snow plaster.

wrf-arw_asnow_ncus_16.thumb.png.f1b66957287344e651678eac8c12943a.png

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7 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

I lived it, man!  Tough being a snow junkie living in Indiana.

Fresh off the press hi-res model still showing a tight swath of 6"+ tonight.  If it keeps up the way it is now, it's likely to happen.  Classic rain to snow plaster.

wrf-arw_asnow_ncus_16.thumb.png.f1b66957287344e651678eac8c12943a.png

I'm planning on heading up that way again this Feb. Glad a snowbase is starting up there. I'm sure bowtie in Indiana will get his snow eventually...its only mid November. 

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