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November 2017 Discussion


hlcater

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4 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Ofc it's too early to be on the cold side. I'd consider it a win if we see a strong CF or two deliver a favorable LES set- up

Today's run got even more pronounced with the gradient.  As far as that gradient, really haven't seen something like it's advertising for November since November 2003 (that was a warm neutral winter though). Probably have to go back to November 1985 for the last time something like it happened in a cold neutral/La Nina.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201711.thumb.gif.476691fa2470da89bcd85090b15966d7.gif

 

59f65168ba7a2_cd2607fb90584bb76a04fe88fc501_301_16.3_57_prcp.png.33870d8a7117ea82b3cb9c0ce7eecef0.png

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Today's run got even more pronounced with the gradient.  As far as that gradient, really haven't seen something like it's advertising for November since November 2003 (that was a warm neutral winter though). Probably have to go back to November 1985 for the last time something like it happened in a cold neutral/La Nina.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201711.thumb.gif.476691fa2470da89bcd85090b15966d7.gif

 

59f65168ba7a2_cd2607fb90584bb76a04fe88fc501_301_16.3_57_prcp.png.33870d8a7117ea82b3cb9c0ce7eecef0.png

Funny, I was thinking about that very Nov. Remember chasing a storm that came out of CO around the 7th and dropped up to 18" in central portions of the Mitt.  I was naive about early season lake shadow at that young age. Thought the snow might be heavier near the coast with a NE wind off of Huron so went that way, only to be disappointed to find out it was rain along the shore. Shoulda went inland, lol

That Nov also featured an historic bliz for the UP. I think that was closer to Thanksgiving tho iirc

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13 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Today's run got even more pronounced with the gradient.  As far as that gradient, really haven't seen something like it's advertising for November since November 2003 (that was a warm neutral winter though). Probably have to go back to November 1985 for the last time something like it happened in a cold neutral/La Nina.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201711.thumb.gif.476691fa2470da89bcd85090b15966d7.gif

 

59f65168ba7a2_cd2607fb90584bb76a04fe88fc501_301_16.3_57_prcp.png.33870d8a7117ea82b3cb9c0ce7eecef0.png

If we can keep up the gradient look for most of the winter it could be a fun winter! One thing to point out for anyone who praises the cfs, in a few days time it went from showing portions of Canada to have +4C or warmer in Nov to some of that same area now showing -4C or colder. That is a huge difference (in other words...dont praise the cfs lol).

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It's looking more and more like South Central IN/Central OH will see their first DAB of the season tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, I like the beginning of a snowpack being laid down north of the border. Just hoping that the weekend warmth doesn't torch the pack up there.

nam3km_asnow_ncus_61.png

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17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Final CFS run for the month.  A couple questions here.  One, will there actually be this type of gradient (I tend to think so) and two, just how will it lay out?

 

 

The $64,000 question. If several of the past winters are any indication, it's ORD FTW. Honestly though, probably Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota will jackpot.

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33 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Final CFS run for the month.  A couple questions here.  One, will there actually be this type of gradient (I tend to think so) and two, just how will it lay out?

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201711.thumb.gif.a9feeaf7983248b7628101317d232bdc.gif

 

First of all, there are some positives to this scenario verbatim. Cold air and snowpack building to our north and west, with the most extreme warm anomalies well to our south. Gradient is close enough that a little wiggle room could keep the blowtorch at bay. 

Also, this look is far kinder than last year's composite at this time...

 

Screen Shot 2017-10-31 at 12.26.30 PM.png

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1 minute ago, WxMatt21 said:

First of all, there are some positives to this scenario verbatim. Cold air and snowpack building to our north and west, with the most extreme warm anomalies well to our south. Gradient is close enough that a little wiggle room could keep the blowtorch at bay. 

Also, this look is far kinder than last year's composite at this time...

 

Screen Shot 2017-10-31 at 12.26.30 PM.png

Totally agree.  It would be a lot more concerning for winter if we had widespread warmer than average conditions extending throughout Canada.   

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While I'm definitely on the snow train starting November 1st, I can't really complain about laying down all that snow and cold in Canada where we need it. I said this recently and I will say it again. 1st of all, November average is 1.5" of snow while the following 4 months average 40" of snow. Also, in November temperatures and snow don't necessarily go hand-in-hand. Being that it's the beginning of Winter, it can go a variety of ways - including we can have very cold november's with little snow or very warm november's with sneak snowstorms. 

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36 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

While I'm definitely on the snow train starting November 1st, I can't really complain about laying down all that snow and cold in Canada where we need it. I said this recently and I will say it again. 1st of all, November average is 1.5" of snow while the following 4 months average 40" of snow. Also, in November temperatures and snow don't necessarily go hand-in-hand. Being that it's the beginning of Winter, it can go a variety of ways - including we can have very cold november's with little snow or very warm november's with sneak snowstorms. 

Snowmobile trails open December 1st..... 

I want snow in November, lots of it.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Final CFS run for the month.  A couple questions here.  One, will there actually be this type of gradient (I tend to think so) and two, just how will it lay out?

 

 

I'd put it across the northern plains (SD/MN). Seems too early in the season to have it set up further south since there isn't any higher pressures in Canada, and the snowpack still isn't established across the southern provinces. Also this seems to be where most of the storms are tracking right now, so that would make even more sense.

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7 hours ago, Jonger said:

Snowmobile trails open December 1st..... 

I want snow in November, lots of it.

Dec 1st??  Oh yeah, cuz peeps are in the woods armed and dangerous the last 2 wks of November! In '95 I had a new sled and tons of early Nov snow, so we'd head out right after dark bout 6 pm. Avoided ticking off the orange coats that way.....B-)

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On 10/27/2017 at 4:16 PM, Jonger said:

We are looking at a well below normal start to November.

We have had awful luck with Novembers over the last 10 years... It's about damn time we get a cold one.

 

Didn't YBY get a pretty big snowstorm in November recently? :lol:

Plus, I distinctly remember freezing my butt off in November 2013 and 2014 (and complaining about it).  

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