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Tuesday, October 24th, 2017 Strong to Severe Storm Potential


weatherwiz

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Is there a way to tell how high up the radar beam is sampling?  Using the OKX radar that line of thunderstorms in western LI doesn't seem to have a whole ton of wind on the velocity, however, looking at ENX its showing much more wind.  I know (or assuming) that since OKX is closer it is sampling much lower...which in this case of wanting wind you would want to see alot and ENX is looking much higher up.  Just don't know at what distance

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Is there a way to tell how high up the radar beam is sampling?  Using the OKX radar that line of thunderstorms in western LI doesn't seem to have a whole ton of wind on the velocity, however, looking at ENX its showing much more wind.  I know (or assuming) that since OKX is closer it is sampling much lower...which in this case of wanting wind you would want to see alot and ENX is looking much higher up.  Just don't know at what distance

Yeah...take your beam angle and apply some SOHCAHTOA.

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Stormy night as we thought but big winds moving out so I think that underperformed some. Didn't see any 60 mph gusts in SNE

I think only Kevin expected that. Winds are pretty much going as modeled like Scott said. Last I peeked the LLJ peaks up here around 6z. FROPA should be around 9z.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

so beam angle, and then distance from radar site?  

hmm well this would be some fun trig practice.  

Radarscope does it for you. But yeah...make out a right triangle. You have your distance and angle. tan(theta)=(height/distance). You have theta and the distance. Solve for h.

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Radarscope does it for you. But yeah...make out a right triangle. You have your distance and angle. tan(theta)=(height/distance). You have theta and the distance. Solve for h.

Radarcscope does it for you?  hmmm...I'll play and check around.  

but this would be fun practice to do out by hand and I'll be able to verify my work by checking radarscope!

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38 minutes ago, dendrite said:

No surprises with the wind and rain yet. Lots of rain to go.

I think the rain will underperform on the west side and the Greens/Berks in general... that area on both GFS/NAM were consistently shown 2"+, even some 3" amounts.  Doubt it comes close to the widespread nature the models had.  Probably more hit and miss big totals.  I think the GGEM will be correct with a further east axis of the best rainfall totals.

I'll save you that "glad we don't live there" but its definitely a little under what was progged in western New England unless it "backs" into the area, which seems unlikely unless it goes negative tilt.

Wind was a bit more than I was thinking...we don't get a lot of wind here in the valley bottom but it was legit today.

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I think the rain will underperform on the west side and the Greens/Berks in general... that area on both GFS/NAM were consistently shown 2"+, even some 3" amounts.  Doubt it comes close to the widespread nature the models had.  Probably more hit and miss big totals.  I think the GGEM will be correct with a further east axis of the best rainfall totals.

I'll save you that "glad we don't live there" but its definitely a little under what was progged in western New England unless it "backs" into the area, which seems unlikely unless it goes negative tilt.

Wind was a bit more than I was thinking...we don't get a lot of wind here in the valley bottom but it was legit today.

Yeah we'll see where that next batch lines up. Nammy was hitting VT hard with that before midnight.

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah we'll see where that next batch lines up. Nammy was hitting VT hard with that before midnight.

If you look at the radar loop and blend the models... I like the area from C.CT up to the ORH Hills and up into the Lakes Region, or a bit west of that (like Manadnocks Region up towards Franconia Notch).

The spots that get a good drink from this initial burst, followed by the training of what is developing south of LI and east of NJ, should be able to get into that 2-4" range.  They are quick moving but provide quite the punch in terms of rainfall.  You sit under one of those streaks for a couple hours and you'll be 1"+ easily in 60-120 minutes.

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I may be wrong, as some spots will certainly get some good totals in Eastern VT. 

Found that the Orange Heights, which do well on S/SE flows into the 3,000ft terrain, should get 3"+ out of this.  Most live 1,200-1,700ft in this area but they are a high efficiency zone in these moist southerly setups.

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