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October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations


bluewave

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pretty calm in Long Beach and light rain. Maybe this wind won’t be a big deal. 

Really think the CAA behind the system is where our winds will come from. 

The fact that it's so calm now means a lot of this stuff aloft isn't coming down. There's good bust potential on winds as there usually is. 

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Really think the CAA behind the system is where our winds will come from. 

The fact that it's so calm now means a lot of this stuff aloft isn't coming down. There's good bust potential on winds as there usually is. 

Any wind potential was always overnight.  The actual center/low is still pretty far away.  Any strong winds are bad news considering how saturated the ground will be.

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1 minute ago, SleetStormNJ said:

Any wind potential was always overnight.  The actual center/low is still pretty far away.  Any strong winds are bad news considering how saturated the ground will be.

It's just off the Delmarva sub 990 mb. I think strongest gusts could be 55-60 but 45-50 most likely. So far this storm reminds me of the April 2007 nor'easter with a lot less rain. 

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's just off the Delmarva sub 990 mb. I think strongest gusts could be 55-60 but 45-50 most likely. So far this storm reminds me of the April 2007 nor'easter with a lot less rain. 

You're jumping the gun here a bit, winds are not expected for another 3-4 hours. See HRRR initiation vs hour 5, winds will come big time for LI (other areas are still up ih the air for now)

hrrr_mslp_wind_neus_6 (1).png

hrrr_mslp_wind_neus_1 (2).png

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

If winds are still calm or light by midnight then those higher gusts probably won't verify. 

Definitely, but I'm fairly confident winds will be rocking by midnight (I'm talking about LI, I honestly don't know what will happen in my area)

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