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October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations


bluewave

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Just now, forkyfork said:

we should be under a high wind watch

NAM/GFS/RGEM remain East or NE of the EURO, shocked how persistent the EURO has been having this come into cape may, makes a huge difference for the NYC area.  I would still discount it based on its performance of IRMA and how bad it busted running it too far west up the coast of Florida even 12 hrs before.  It has a known west and over-amped Bias since the upgrade.

 
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1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

NAM/GFS/RGEM remain East or NE of the EURO, shocked how persistent the EURO has been having this come into cape may, makes a huge difference for the NYC area.  I would still discount it based on its performance of IRMA and how bad it busted running it too far west up the coast of Florida even 12 hrs before.  It has a known west and over-amped Bias since the upgrade.

 

except those other models keep coming west

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10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Badly busted last 24 hrs caused the massive storm surge busts from Naples to Tampa

Just so we're clear. Youre arguing against following the euro, because of one "bust" in a hurricane a month ago, but to instead follow models with lower verification scores, more verifiable busts in recent events, and have been slowly adjusting further west as we get closer to the event. Correct?

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Just now, BxEngine said:

Just so we're clear. Youre arguing not to follow the euro, because of one "bust" in a hurricane a month ago, but to instead follow models with lower verification scores, more verifiable busts in recent events, and have been slowly adjusting further west as we get closer to the event. Correct?

No because of the well documented west and over amped bias, I'm not throwing it out completely but it needs to be discounted

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3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No because of the well documented west and over amped bias, I'm not throwing it out completely but it needs to be discounted

Wait .... 'Im not throwing it out COMPLETELY but it needs to be DISCOUNTED'. What?????

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26 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No because of the well documented west and over amped bias, I'm not throwing it out completely but it needs to be discounted

GFS remains well NE and keeps the tropical low completely separate, I believe this is correct and it scores a huge win against the Euro once again

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2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The GFS is all alone bro

It's not the same model it use to be and has had major wins of last plus in my opinion it makes more sense meteorologically.  I don't see Philippe going into SNJ and forming a super low.  Look at NHC path they agree, 18z RGEM moves the ts over the cape and keeps them separate, NAM is in between.  Keeping TS Philippe as it's own entity is the model I am going with

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1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

It's not the same model it use to be and has had major wins of last plus in my opinion it makes more sense meteorologically.  I don't see Philippe going into SNJ and forming a super low.  Look at NHC path they agree, 18z RGEM moves the ts over the cape and keeps them separate, NAM is in between.  Keeping TS Philippe as it's own entity is the model I am going with

I'm strongly rooting for the weaker solution, but the other models have gone towards the Euro, such as rgem, NAM, ukie, ggem, German, jma....the GFS is an outlier at the moment. 

You have busted more than anyone on any weather board, mainly because you have a history of hugging the GFS. It has burned you many times before, and it might again. 

Its literally all alone.

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9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It's not the same model it use to be and has had major wins of last plus in my opinion it makes more sense meteorologically.  I don't see Philippe going into SNJ and forming a super low.  Look at NHC path they agree, 18z RGEM moves the ts over the cape and keeps them separate, NAM is in between.  Keeping TS Philippe as it's own entity is the model I am going with

Gefs at 12z was Euro like

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5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I'm strongly rooting for the weaker solution, but the other models have gone towards the Euro, such as rgem, NAM, ukie, ggem, German, jma....the GFS is an outlier at the moment. 

You have busted more than anyone on any weather board, mainly because you have a history of hugging the GFS. It has burned you many times before, and it might again. 

Its literally all alone.

This is not true but I have said my point and will wait for the storm

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