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October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted

Popping in from central PA: We're in NYC for an event Saturday and have a 5 p.m. train home Sunday. Winds can really screw Amtrak up, as currently depicted the stronger winds don't start until the overnight Sunday into Monday hours correct? It costs a small fortune to change my Amtrak tickets earlier sooooo. 

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SEC

SEC

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, canderson said:

Popping in from central PA: We're in NYC for an event Saturday and have a 5 p.m. train home Sunday. Winds can really screw Amtrak up, as currently depicted the stronger winds don't start until the overnight Sunday into Monday hours correct? 

Correct. Those stronger winds shouldn't impact the area until early Monday morning.

 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, SEC said:

Correct. Those stronger winds shouldn't impact the area until early Monday morning.

 

 

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Popping in from central PA: We're in NYC for an event Saturday and have a 5 p.m. train home Sunday. Winds can really screw Amtrak up, as currently depicted the stronger winds don't start until the overnight Sunday into Monday hours correct? It costs a small fortune to change my Amtrak tickets earlier sooooo. 

While winds will be increasing Sunday night, stronger winds arrive as early as 18z Sunday on the Euro, especially along the coast. I would think you should be okay though, as the further West you travel the less the winds will be an issue. At least as currently forecast.

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nesussxwx

nesussxwx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

When the "18z screwy run" occurs you know you are going to get a big storm lol. I would not be concerned unless some of the other models start jumping on to that idea and even then proceed with caution. I would lean heavily towards the Euro. 

I would not. Euro has had a western bias, and overamped so many events since Juno. I believe it was upgraded that year as well.

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Rtd208

Rtd208

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Newman said:

Crankyweatherguy on twitter says right now, at least, he would lean right side of envelope:

 

It is a possibility, this guy is pretty good and I follow him on Twitter. With that being said, you also don't want to misinterpret what he is saying, does he mean OTS or just on the eastern side of the envelop as far as track? The point is, becoming concerned that this will be a non event based of off one run of the NAM/GFS is not the smartest idea, would like to see future runs and other models come on board with that scenario before buying into it.

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Rtd208

Rtd208

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It is a possibility, this guy is pretty good and I follow him on Twitter. With that being said, you also don't want to misinterpret what he is saying, does he mean OTS or just on the eastern side of the envelop as far as track? The point is, becoming concerned that this will be a non event based of off one run of the NAM/GFS is not the smartest idea, would like to see future runs and other models come on board with that scenario before buying into it.

Adding to my previous post, he does mention the GFS could be correct and thinking the Euro is to far west, something to monitor as we head into the 00z runs tonight and tomorrows runs. I will tell you what, if the Euro blows this I think people will be very hesitant to buy into it this winter if it shows a big storm and I do agree with some on here that the Euro is a bit of a shell of its former self i.e. upgrades= bad.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

The interactions involved are highly complex. There’s a lot of uncertainty. This is the kind of storm for which major details might not be resolved until 24 to 36 hours prior to the event. Having said that, it’s probably more likely than not that the higher resolution models may have a better early grasp on the solution. Still, there’s too much uncertainty to have good confidence in any particular solution.

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

The problem is the 500mb low never develops and the one at 850mb closes off too late and over Vermont on Monday AM.   We are sandwiched  between two distinct areas of loose winds to the north and south.  Need to see some phasing or we have an under performer here, if you were expecting big time action.  I used the NAVGEM for this.

In addition waves at Buoy 44025 are down to just a regular 4' for the time frame, and not much higher anywhere else either.  Was 11' yesterday.  Waves are actually higher than that right now!

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I would probably go with the EPS mean for now which is a little east of the OP. The GFS has an east bias with these systems and the OP Euro can be too far west .

 

eps_slp_lows_east_16.thumb.png.a1296b6480caa609bca6f8c560e94e4d.png

 

 

 

 

Given the strength and crazy persistence of the WAR, along with the super warm SSTs positively feeding it, since the 1st week of September, I’m going with the EURO for now....

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