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October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations


bluewave

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14 minutes ago, danstorm said:

This appears to be the latest in a string of major underperformers - by major, I mean like at or below the 10th percentile outcome for the majority of the area.

Of course, this event is not over, but I wouldn't be shocked if the latest band passing through my section of NJ was more or less all she wrote.

agreed

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1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Had some training here. Still moderate rain with a few rumbles of thunder. 1.67 in the bucket so far today. Just got the power back up.

It's a very localized event, but those that did get under the training did meet expectations, and it's not over yet.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

People have to remember that not every event is about their backyard. 

No, it's not... but the majority are underperforming expectations.  

This is different from a classic convective event.  The progs were for 1-3+ of rain over a widespread area for days.  In a repeat of the last several events, most west of the city won't break an inch. 

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Just now, danstorm said:

No, it's not... but the majority are underperforming expectations.  

This is different from a classic convective event.  The progs were for 1-3+ of rain over a widespread area for days.  In a repeat of the last several events, most west of the city won't break an inch. 

In case you haven't noticed, it's not over yet, and more rain is developing to the South. Again, models are useful for narrowing down what areas are most favorable but cannot pinpoint the exact location and track of individual cells which ultimately decides who gets the heavy rain and who doesn't. It's a moist environment, with a strong LLJ, so it's not surprising that models were spitting out the amounts they did.

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14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

In case you haven't noticed, it's not over yet, and more rain is developing to the South. Again, models are useful for narrowing down what areas are most favorable but cannot pinpoint the exact location and track of individual cells which ultimately decides who gets the heavy rain and who doesn't. It's a moist environment, with a strong LLJ, so it's not surprising that models were spitting out the amounts they did.

meh - enjoy your 0.53

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