Bob Chill Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 GFS is wasting no time throwing out d10+ fantasy snow. 18z happy hour back to its old ways. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS is wasting no time throwing out d10+ fantasy snow. 18z happy hour back to its old ways. Good times. Williamsburg before DCA? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 21, 2017 Author Share Posted October 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Williamsburg before DCA? lol That's just a byproduct of the algorithm. The area in SEVA with snow is 35 while the close burbs here are 37. 850's are cold AF. I'll wait until 0z before starting a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 Rain-to-snow behind a cold front in early November. Has there ever been anything so in-the-bag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 22, 2017 Author Share Posted October 22, 2017 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Rain-to-snow behind a cold front in early November. Has there ever been anything so in-the-bag? We know more once the vort comes on shore. Better sampling and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Here’s to not having another catastrophically awful digital winter. Look, you're already panicking!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 22, 2017 Author Share Posted October 22, 2017 Looking forward to wnwxluvrs deck picks. This isn't even uber fantasy range. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Looking forward to wnwxluvrs deck picks. This isn't even uber fantasy range. Lol Would be amazing if this were to come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looking forward to wnwxluvrs deck picks. This isn't even uber fantasy range. Lol Exactly 6 years later to the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looking forward to wnwxluvrs deck picks. This isn't even uber fantasy range. Lol If only it wasn't the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 34 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: If only it wasn't the 18z run. Don't knock the Happy Hour runs around here. The people live and die for them. Then they crash down to earth the next morning as the 00Z run plays grinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 Let's dispel the fiction that 18z GFS doesn't know what he's doing; he knows exactly what he's doing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Unfortunately, it seems like the off hour runs of the GFS do fine in the first 75-100 hours or so, but after that their skill score really seems to dissipate. Fun nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2017 Author Share Posted October 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Unfortunately, it seems like the off hour runs of the GFS do fine in the first 75-100 hours or so, but after that their skill score really seems to dissipate. Fun nonetheless. It seems that way sometimes but the verification scores say something different. The accuracy of the 6 and 18z runs is pretty close if not identical to the 0 and 12z. Ops in general beyond 5 days aren't very accurate though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It seems that way sometimes but the verification scores say something different. The accuracy of the 6 and 18z runs is pretty close if not identical to the 0 and 12z. Ops in general beyond 5 days aren't very accurate though. I totally agree with you. The actual skill scores show them being the same, but it just doesn't seem that way at all. I think OPs can be useful for trends, but the exact location of certain features can be 100s of miles off. Obviously in the day 7 or less (or so) they're fairly accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: It seems that way sometimes but the verification scores say something different. The accuracy of the 6 and 18z runs is pretty close if not identical to the 0 and 12z. Ops in general beyond 5 days aren't very accurate though. Totally agree on last sentence. I might have shortened it to day 4, but I remember posting about the wildly different solutions 5 days out we were getting last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 23, 2017 Author Share Posted October 23, 2017 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Totally agree on last sentence. I might have shortened it to day 4, but I remember posting about the wildly different solutions 5 days out we were getting last year. Ops can be basically locked in 5 days out but it's usually stable hp or basic frontal passage or something simple like that. Synoptic precip is much more complicated so range makes a big difference with accuracy. We totally ignore when the gfs shows hp and normal temps for 5 strsight days of runs and nails it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ops can be basically locked in 5 days out but it's usually stable hp or basic frontal passage or something simple like that. Synoptic precip is much more complicated so range makes a big difference with accuracy. We totally ignore when the gfs shows hp and normal temps for 5 strsight days of runs and nails it. Lol Yeah, we only see when it fails to give us what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 8 hours ago, George BM said: The "accumulations" from that run. Fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Nothing for central MD. Looks right. You all can run with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Not really. The Woodbridge jackpot of 2" is never going to Pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 That October digital snow can turn into 70 and sunny right this very second. I want nothing to do with any sort of October snowfall - not now, not ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 3 hours ago, mattie g said: That October digital snow can turn into 70 and sunny right this very second. I want nothing to do with any sort of October snowfall - not now, not ever. Maybe not 70 and sunny, but you probably will get your wish on the snowfall part of it. Although ............ ..........what I can see of the Euro does look pretty chilly for Sun/Mon, maybe flakes. Need better access than I have to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Maybe not 70 and sunny, but you probably will get your wish on the snowfall part of it. Although ............ ..........what I can see of the Euro does look pretty chilly for Sun/Mon, maybe flakes. Need better access than I have to see that. I'll be down that way next weekend and am so eager to see what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 If you have weatherbell check out the 00Z snowfall map at range for the 00Z run of the GFS. Shows a nor'easter develop off the southeast coast around day 14 with decent snowfall for eastern portions of the east coast. DC/Balt have a half inch with increasing amounts south and east. SE Virginia clocks in with 6+ inch totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 21 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: If you have weatherbell check out the 00Z snowfall map at range for the 00Z run of the GFS. Shows a nor'easter develop off the southeast coast around day 14 with decent snowfall for eastern portions of the east coast. DC/Balt have a half inch with increasing amounts south and east. SE Virginia clocks in with 6+ inch totals. mood flakes for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 22 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: If you have weatherbell check out the 00Z snowfall map at range for the 00Z run of the GFS. Shows a nor'easter develop off the southeast coast around day 14 with decent snowfall for eastern portions of the east coast. DC/Balt have a half inch with increasing amounts south and east. SE Virginia clocks in with 6+ inch totals. November snow is kind of OK, but not until later in the month. I’m too big a believer in the theory that super-early snow forbids a crap winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Just now, mappy said: mood flakes for some I didn't say I believed weatherbells snowfall output just that it is what it was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 wasn't disagree with you! just posting the image, for others to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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