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Tracking Nate


George BM

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EPS track plot kinda sucks imo. We need the center to run the apps at the very least to have wind and/or severe potential. Very tight cluster west of the apps. We can't even do remnants right. lol. Props to the GFS/GEFS is the track ends up west like this. Hopefully the center misses the Yucatan. If the eventual track is west like consensus is currently showing, we need Nate to be as strong as possible. 

I'll laugh if get less than a half inch of rain out of this. 

 

AL16_2017100512_ECENS.png?35489094

 

 

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We'll have clouds and some drizzle.

The autumn will remember.

Always go with persistence.

For the Mid Atlantic, the tropical systems have been bone dry. So, Nate will be no different, it will track well north, we'll have warm humid DRY weather.

The entire fall will be dry per weak La Nina. Weak La Ninas are drier than normal, warmer than normal. This Nate forecast is a no-brainer.

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If Nate does make it solidly into hurricane strength territory, I think there will probably be sporadic tree damage on the eastern side of the center throughout much of its path inland because of its fast forward speed. That helps not just in shortening the time over land, but also in enhancing the "gustiness" of the winds themselves. 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Link saved!  Much appreciated..Yes, very nice track that is in line with other globals. At least we are in the game for something more interesting than just a rainy day...Pregame tropical training is the key and where that sets up will almost be a nowcasting situation..

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20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep..

If decent track continues and Nate is a Hurricane at landfall and  with forward speed like gymen.spoke of there Should be some fun nowcasting and a few surprises as always the case with a tropical system.

The storm evolution through the gulf looks unbalanced. I'm sure someone with better knowledge can answer this far better than me but the west side of the storm never fully develops so it's lopsided on the east side. Probably has to do with the strong steering winds in the upper levels. To get into good winds we need a close pass to the west it seems. Stronger winds on all guidance after landfall are tight to the center and on the right side only. 

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0z EPS is right in the pocket with the hurr's and GEFS. We wasted an ungodly amount of time looking at tropical this season and haven't even gotten more than a sprinkle. I suppose this is some sort of payback. Won't be high impact or anything but far better than blanking out with every single storm. 

AL16_2017100600_ECENS.png?35489094

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The 06z NAM would be the ideal weenie solution.   The arrival of Nate would be delayed here until Monday afternoon, and we would heat into the 80s before the strong wind fields and lift arrive.     The more progressive solutions bring the remnants through much earlier, and we have no sfc-based instability to take advantage of the impressive wind fields above.    Of course, at this point, I'll just be happy with a good soaking.

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19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The storm evolution through the gulf looks unbalanced. I'm sure someone with better knowledge can answer this far better than me but the west side of the storm never fully develops so it's lopsided on the east side. Probably has to do with the strong steering winds in the upper levels. To get into good winds we need a close pass to the west it seems. Stronger winds on all guidance after landfall are tight to the center and on the right side only. 

I've noticed that the HWRF on multiple runs returns Nate to TS strength around our area because winds once again get to flow over a significant body of water (the Chesapeake Bay). Probably not correct, but it's algorithm keeps on repeating that solution. 

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3 minutes ago, high risk said:

The 06z NAM would be the ideal weenie solution.   The arrival of Nate would be delayed here until Monday afternoon, and we would heat into the 80s before the strong wind fields and lift arrive.     The more progressive solutions bring the remnants through much earlier, and we have no sfc-based instability to take advantage of the impressive wind fields above.    Of course, at this point, I'll just be happy with a good soaking.

I was going to post about this, but you beat me to it.  06z NAM would be really nice for a severe risk and possibly a few tornadoes

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10 minutes ago, yoda said:

I was going to post about this, but you beat me to it.  06z NAM would be really nice for a severe risk and possibly a few tornadoes

With remnant tropical cyclones you're really not going to get any sort of hail risk most times. TOR would be the main threat IF any severe threat materializes. Even damaging wind wouldn't be up at the levels of a regular DC area severe threat. TOR is what you have to hope for is you want a severe threat. 

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