gymengineer Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, Lookout said: It looks like the worst of the winds should stay to the north and west of atlanta but it's going to be interesting to see just how far inland substantial wind gusts will occur and what type of impact there will be. It's quite unusual to say the least to see a tropical system, much less a strong cat 1/low end cat 2, making landfall along the gulf coast with a forward motion of damn near 30 mph. In fact, i'd wager that might be some kind of record for the gulf coast. Regardless, To think that it will go from being on the coast to eastern tn in 12 hours or around 300 miles is freaking insane. Although the area impacted will be rather small to the east of the center, i think the distance inland where some damaging gusts could occur is likely to be rather impressive. The saving grace of course is it's not stronger than it is at landfall and even the areas hit hardest won't get high winds but for more than a couple of hours. We have really seen some storms with some unusual characteristics, speeds, and tracks this year and nate is no exception. It might not be the strongest or largest storm ever to make landfall but it certainly is unique due to it's super fast motion and it's going to be really fascinating to see what areas well inland end up getting. I'm curious how Nate will compare to Ivan wind-wise in Birmingham. They look to be at the near ideal spot for strong gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 That video clearly shows a good eye wall on the E/NE/N side. But judging atm the CDO surrounding the center on IR AVN... Gotta agree with with LithiaWX. High end cat 2 Def possible at landfall. Maybe even low-end cat 3. 115-120 Maybe?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Sharp cutoff to rain tonight and tomorrow per HRRR Click for 18 hour loop of Hourly Update of HRRR Model for projected rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 NHC presentation on Nate https://www.pscp.tv/w/1MYGNXMllYZxw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Hard to say off of that version of the HRRR. Out of range. Most of the Times with a tropical Collison to extra tropical storm combined with a front or trough. The greatest convergence is along the front. NW side of the storm. As in the case West or along the apps with a track south of ATL Greenville GSO for the LP. Greatest rainfall is going to occur along the apps. Till the piedmont regions of SC and NC get rain will be as the remnant LP tracks east of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 hour ago, nchighcountrywx said: Sharp cutoff to rain tonight and tomorrow per HRRR Click for 18 hour loop of Hourly Update of HRRR Model for projected rain Wow! Just incomprehensible rainfall incoming! What a drought buster! Where's GSP's flood package? #EYEROLL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 GSP has issued flood watches and high wind watches for the WNC TN border counties, the Upstate mountain counties and NE Ga. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ052&warncounty=NCC087&firewxzone=NCZ052&local_place1=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 32 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Wow! Just incomprehensible rainfall incoming! What a drought buster! Where's GSP's flood package? #EYEROLL Jshetley called he wants wants you to know there is only room for one of him on this forum....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 Sat presentation is waning, cloud tops warming pretty quickly..... and the last pass by the HH found the NE wind field weaker....another plane should get in there soon and we will see what is up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: Jshetley called he wants wants you to know there is only room for one of him on this forum....... GSP said in their afternoon discussion, outside the mountains , rainfall totals are being reduced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 New plane just hit the center and Nate has really weakened rapidly over the last few hrs....this matches the ho hum sat and radar presentations.....looks like we finally have a storm that didnt go bonkers in the ATL this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: GSP said in their afternoon discussion, outside the mountains , rainfall totals are being reduced Ok well all the model guidance suggest 1-3" for your neck of the woods....your GSP forecast calls for anywhere from 1-2" thru Sunday night with a high chance of more rain after that. A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. East northeast wind around 5 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Tonight Rain likely, mainly between 8pm and 3am, then showers likely after 3am. Patchy fog after 10pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 70. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Sunday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms between 2pm and 4pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Patchy fog before 1pm. High near 78. Southeast wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Sunday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then showers between 2am and 4am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4am. Low around 71. Southeast wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Columbus Day Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 4pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 81. South southwest wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely before 7pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, downeastnc said: New plane just hit the center and Nate has really weakened rapidly over the last few hrs....this matches the ho hum sat and radar presentations.....looks like we finally have a storm that didnt go bonkers in the ATL this year... NHC maintained him at 90mph. No weakening yet. He also went through RI. I think we are all a little numbed from the strong of cat 5s and 4s we have seen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 minute ago, LithiaWx said: NHC maintained him at 90mph. No weakening yet. He also went through RI. I think we are all a little numbed from the strong of cat 5s and 4s we have seen this year. Just because the NHC doesnt change its strength doesnt mean it isnt weakening and doing so quickly..... its obvious on the HH plane real time data, the partial eyewall is gone according the the first center fix from the HH and the sat presentation has crashed with warming tops all over....The HH didnt hit a single wind at the surface above 70 mph on the first pass thru the NE quad moments ago, the last two flights found 85-95 mph winds at the surface in that area. I would guess he is barely a minimum Cat 1 in the NE quad only at the moment. I doubt the NHC would change anything at this stage as the new data from the plane was not there before the 5pm update, and he will hit before the next update...they mention the overall look was degrading in their disco.... Nate is sending mixed signals on its organization this afternoon. On one side, the hurricane has a ragged central dense overcast with a good complex of outer bands in the northeastern semicircle, and there are hints of an eye trying to form. On the other side, the cloud tops near the center have warmed significantly during the past several hours, and there are signs that vertical shear is starting to affect the storm. In addition, the eye only has deep convection in the eastern semicircle in land-based radar data. The last reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the central pressure was near 981 mb, with flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an intensity of 80 kt. A new aircraft is just starting its investigation of the hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Just because the NHC doesnt change its strength doesnt mean it isnt weakening and doing so quickly..... its obvious on the HH plane real time data, the partial eyewall is gone according the the first center fix from the HH and the sat presentation has crashed with warming tops all over....The HH didnt hit a single wind at the surface above 70 mph on the first pass thru the NE quad moments ago, the last two flights found 85-95 mph winds at the surface in that area. I would guess he is barely a minimum Cat 1 in the NE quad only at the moment. I doubt the NHC would change anything at this stage as the new data from the plane was not there before the 5pm update, and he will hit before the next update...they mention the overall look was degrading in their disco.... Nate is sending mixed signals on its organization this afternoon. On one side, the hurricane has a ragged central dense overcast with a good complex of outer bands in the northeastern semicircle, and there are hints of an eye trying to form. On the other side, the cloud tops near the center have warmed significantly during the past several hours, and there are signs that vertical shear is starting to affect the storm. In addition, the eye only has deep convection in the eastern semicircle in land-based radar data. The last reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the central pressure was near 981 mb, with flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an intensity of 80 kt. A new aircraft is just starting its investigation of the hurricane. I don’t think he will make cat 2 anymore. He’s coming onshore soon. Sure sat looks like he is degrading but HH still found the winds to support the 90mph advisory. Pressure hasn’t come up either. I think he is maintaining right now. Not gaining or losing strength atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 minute ago, LithiaWx said: I don’t think he will make cat 2 anymore. He’s coming onshore soon. Sure sat looks like he is degrading but HH still found the winds to support the 90mph advisory. Pressure hasn’t come up either. I think he is maintaining right now. Not gaining or losing strength atm. They did on the last flight before the 5pm update but that was already a hr or so old by the time they put out the 5pm update and the warming on sat really took off right after that plane left.... but a new plane got out there 45 mins ago and it did not even find a 70+ mph surface wind in the NE quad...they are not going to downgrade it though even with that data its to close to landfall to do that...this was the strongest drop on the first NE quad pass, it doesnt even support Cat 1....but I agree with you that overall Nate is at best maintaining as a Cat 1 hurricane but between the Sat/Radar/HH data he is having issues......I wouldnt be surprised to see some Cat 2 gust though in that new hot tower going up, he should make landfall over the delta in the next hr or two.... Time: 20:48:00Z Coordinates: 28.550N 88.933W Acft. Static Air Press: 842.5 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,416 m (4,646 ft) Extrap. Sfc. Press: 992.8 mb (29.32 inHg) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 142° at 75 kts (From the SE at 86.3 mph) Air Temp: 17.7°C (63.9°F) Dew Pt: 17.7°C (63.9°F) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 78 kts (89.8 mph)SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 61 kts (70.2 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 30 mm/hr (1.18 in/hr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: GSP said in their afternoon discussion, outside the mountains , rainfall totals are being reduced Latest NAM agrees with this! What a waste of a storm, 1" or less now! Glad I had to wait a month for this crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Whatever models they used on the local weather, showed 35-40 MPH gusts in my area for about 8-10 hours! Didn't expect that and it's likely overdone, our peak wind gust with Irma at the airport was 48 mph , and had quite a few trees down! Had these gusts up until about 8-9AM on Monday , and brought up school concerns again! I believe busses can't be on the road with any winds over 35mph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 On WYFF 4, they are showing a " power outage index" and has most of the upstate under high!!?? What?? The mountains on low end. That graphic/map just looks wierd and wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 We’ve had no rain in a month. An inch of rain is certainly not a waste of a storm. I am noticing that line of strong storms in the Midwest. I am hoping that front moves the moisture more east than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Just looked at the radar and it looks like the western side of the storm has really dried up and also it looks like it took a bit of a northeast wobble last few frames. Hopefully that NE movement keeps going. That's about the only chance we will get rain out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 Yeah they are barely gusting into the 60's in the northern "eyewall" as Nate comes ashore....I am not sure how much wind he will drag onshore, his 850 wind field is a bit better but I am not sure how much of this will mix down....models are not over whelming inloand with 10M winds outside of a small area east of the center..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 53 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Whatever models they used on the local weather, showed 35-40 MPH gusts in my area for about 8-10 hours! Didn't expect that and it's likely overdone, our peak wind gust with Irma at the airport was 48 mph , and had quite a few trees down! Had these gusts up until about 8-9AM on Monday , and brought up school concerns again! I believe busses can't be on the road with any winds over 35mph! 2 Who's rule is that? I never heard that one before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 minute ago, jburns said: Who's rule is that? I never heard that one before. Yeah, I have heard of bridges restricting empty trucks and buses but never highways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Just now, yotaman said: Yeah, I have heard of bridges restricting empty trucks and buses but never highways. I'm assuming he meant school buses and is talking about a school system rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, jburns said: I'm assuming he meant school buses and is talking about a school system rule. Oh ok, but our schools have been open even during our bigger Nor'easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Just now, yotaman said: Oh ok, but our schools have been open even during our bigger Nor'easters. That's why I asked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 This. https://ed.sc.gov/scdoe/assets/file/agency/os/Transportation/Safety-Information/documents/040927_hi-wind_caution.pdf The state of Florida has a similar policy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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