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Hurricane Nate


downeastnc

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Definitely has my attention here in Macon. Will be fascinating to watch unfold over the next couple of days. 

 

Just the thought of having 2 tropical storms/hurricanes impacting some of the same area within a month is wild. 

 

Also, I have a really hard time imagining future-Nate being limited to Cat 1 strength with all that time over water and mostly favorable conditions. Unless there's more land interaction than expected I could see it getting quite a bit stronger. 

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, jrips27 said:

Definitely has my attention here in Macon. Will be fascinating to watch unfold over the next couple of days. 

 

Just the thought of having 2 tropical storms/hurricanes impacting some of the same area within a month is wild. 

 

Also, I have a really hard time imagining future-Nate being limited to Cat 1 strength with all that time over water and mostly favorable conditions. Unless there's more land interaction than expected I could see it getting quite a bit stronger. 

 

 

 

Intensity forecast is a crap shoot, I think the models limit it since its moving fast plus land interaction will prevent a solid core from developing....again though if this year has shown us anything making assumptions on strength is a foolish thing to do....

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Euro caved to the GFS, came west into LA as well, all the major models hit LA now.....Euro also much weaker with the system as well...all the major models have a TS at landfall....honestly that's good for me IMBY I don't want any rain, keep it all out west of I-95 and I am a happy camper.

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6 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Euro caved to the GFS, came west into LA as well, all the major models hit LA now.....Euro also much weaker with the system as well...all the major models have a TS at landfall....honestly that's good for me IMBY I don't want any rain, keep it all out west of I-95 and I am a happy camper.

Hope there are extensive enough bands to give us some rain. Triangle area is a dustbowl. Can't even recall the last time we had measureable rain its such a distant memory.

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Current model runs are trending weaker and west! :(

We will be lucky to get a few showers from this, if anything at all, in the Carolinas 

06Z GFS was actually wetter than the the last two runs....a large sloppy unorganized system will bring a lot of more moisture over a larger area.....

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Current model runs are trending weaker and west! :(

We will be lucky to get a few showers from this, if anything at all, in the Carolinas 

That is what I thought about Irma when the models shifted to the west towards Birmingham - so at this point just sort of in the watch and wait mode.  At least this one doesn't appear to be one that will get strong enough to do the damage (and 4 days without power) that Irma did for a lot of us

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33 minutes ago, NEGa said:

That is what I thought about Irma when the models shifted to the west towards Birmingham - so at this point just sort of in the watch and wait mode.  At least this one doesn't appear to be one that will get strong enough to do the damage (and 4 days without power) that Irma did for a lot of us

Thats the truth. I somehow lucked out with keeping power but irma cost me nearly $2000 in getting trees cut down. I lost two oaks of course but they were apart of a bunch and were stress fractures between the rest so I had to get the rest cut down...and  I'm still in the process of cleaning that mess up.   We/I do need the rain but id rather we not have to worry about losing power again or more trees coming down.    How long did it take for you to get your power back? 

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5 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Don’t sleep on a boom goes the dynamite scenario in the GoM.  That basin never fails to surprise and has produced some monsters quickly in the past.  I don’t buy anything yet.  This year has been humbling a few times. 

Too much land interaction, IMO , I know when it clears the tip of Yucatan, it's got some open water , but think this will be a weak Cat 1, 80mph type stuff, but we will see!

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12 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Euro caved to the GFS, came west into LA as well, all the major models hit LA now.....Euro also much weaker with the system as well...all the major models have a TS at landfall....honestly that's good for me IMBY I don't want any rain, keep it all out west of I-95 and I am a happy camper.

We need some rain in my neck of the woods. It's been almost 3 weeks since our last decent rain.

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I havnt had one drop of rain since Irma! Hope this brings a ton of rain to everyone that needs it!

Thanks!!! Anyone who has passed Jordan Lake knows how low our reservoir is. We need anything tropical we can get, otherwise its just dry frontal passages.

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3 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Models keep it a very small system, with a east side based wind field, this is typical of fast moving unorganized systems.....Nate goes from 19N to 31N in 48 hrs so its gonna be moving fast roughly 18-20 mph to cover that distance in that time frame.  

I’ll be very surprised if Nate doesn’t reach cat 2 or higher.  Fast moving or not the region is not hostile to tropical development and the GOM is undisturbed bath water right now.  Maybe I end up being way wrong but history says this will be a good storm with a huge right hook at the end. 

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Rapid Intensification is an uncertainty as it is a possibility.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 052045
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

The center of Nate is now over eastern Honduras, and the cloud
pattern has lost some organization since the last advisory due to
passage over land.  In addition, recent ASCAT overpasses suggest
that there are no tropical-storm-force winds outside of the coastal
waters of Nicaragua and Honduras.  However, surface observations
indicate that the central pressure remains near 1000 mb, and based
on this the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 35 kt.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Nate as it emerges from the northern coast of Honduras
around 0300 UTC.

Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that
Nate is currently experiencing about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical
wind shear, which is more than suggested by the SHIPS model.  The
large-scale models are in good agreement that this shear should
diminish during the next 12-24 h, leaving Nate in an favorable
environment for strengthening.  One change in the models from the
previous advisory is that the GFS now shows more development as Nate
crosses the Gulf of Mexico.  The new intensity forecast shows little
change during the first 12 h due to the shear and land interaction,
then it calls for steady intensification though landfall on the
northern Gulf Coast.  After landfall, Nate should weaken as it
traverses the eastern United States.  It should be noted that while
the forecast shows a peak intensity of 70 kt at 48 h, Nate is
expected to continue to strengthen between 48 h and landfall and
thus is likely to be stronger than 70 kt.  It should also be noted
that SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index values remain quite high, and
any period of rapid intensification would lead to Nate being
stronger than currently forecast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/052045.shtml?

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