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Nate


NavarreDon

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From recon eye wall has yet to form, so intensification should be kept in check some what, remember Nate is only ~18 hours from landfall. Due to fast forward motions winds will be significantly less on west side of storm. The other side of this is those East of the center even inland for a ways need to be prepared for strong winds.

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Nate may not look much improved this am but shedding that convective blob to his west was actually quite beneficial to his center of circulation, settings the stage for further deepening, as it will further allow the windfield to delongate and concentrate the best surface pressure falls under the CDO.

I think he will now intensify at a faster rate than what we saw over the past 6-10 hrs...

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12 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Nate may not look much improved this am but shedding that convective blob to his west was actually quite beneficial to his center of circulation, settings the stage for further deepening, as it will further allow the windfield to delongate and concentrate the best surface pressure falls under the CDO.

I think he will now intensify at a faster rate than what we saw over the past 6-10 hrs...

He's moving too fast 

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1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

What does this mean? I'm no expert but I don't believe forward speed rules out intensification. 

 

Now there isnt really time though. 

Hypothetically I would think forward speed in relation to the efficiency of latent heat fluxes. In my opinion SST's and are critical in determining if forward speed will inhibit/preclude intensification. Opal and Andrew are just two cases that come to mind where high forward speed coincided with intensification. In this context I don't believe 18 kt forward speed will mitigate intensification...

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6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Looks pretty impressive at the moment on Sat... 

hauling ass, 45 miles or so between the last two center fixes.....will be over the Miss Delta in 7-8 hrs at this rate and into MS in 10-12....

peak surface winds right in NE quad...maybe a gust though

Time:    14:11:30Z
Coordinates:    26.617N 87.967W
Acft. Static Air Press:    696.9 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:    3,018 m (9,902 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:    987.0 mb (29.15 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):    From 134° at 70 kts (From the SE at 80.6 mph)
Air Temp:    11.8°C (53.2°F)
Dew Pt:    10.0°C (50.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:    73 kts (84.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:    82 kts (94.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:    15 mm/hr (0.59 in/hr)

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Hurricane Nate Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

Nate is showing improved organization in satellite imagery this
morning, with the formation of a symmetric central dense overcast
with cloud tops colder than -80C.  In addition, Air Force Reserve
and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have reported a central pressure
near 984 mb inside a 25 n mi wide eye that is starting to form under
the overcast.  The planes have reported 700-mb flight level winds of
up to 88 kt and surface wind estimates from the SFMR instrument
between 75-85 kt.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to a possibly conservative 80 kt.

Conditions appear favorable for Nate to continue strengthening for
the next 12 h or so before it encounters land and increasing shear.
The new intensity forecast thus follows the SHIPS model in showing
Nate become a Category 2 hurricane before landfall on the central
Gulf Coast.  After landfall, Nate should weaken rapidly as it moves
through the eastern United States.  The cyclone is now forecast to
become extratropical near the 72 hr point and dissipate completely
by 96 h.
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NHC now expecting 105 MPH at landfall. Winds up to 90 MPH at 11 AM

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 26.6N  88.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 29.1N  89.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 32.1N  88.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/0000Z 35.7N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  09/1200Z 39.2N  80.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  10/1200Z 44.5N  67.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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NHC also has raised surge estimates a little bit.

Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7
to 11 ft
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft
Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to
6 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft
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Some of the cloud tops are almost off the scale at this time. Def trying to get its act together now. My in laws live in Mobile on the coast. One thing to note with Dauphin Island Alabama is even a 2 foot storm surge can inundate the populated West end of that island. In fact, 24 hours before Katrina even hit, the inundation was already underway. That island is probably the worst location for hurricane storm surge. Starting with Hurricane Danny in the late 90s and through Cindy, Ivan and Katrina, the gulf side lost several hundred feet of beach and the bay side gained several hundred. The last time I was there, houses stood on stilts out in the middle of the GOM with not a bit of land under them. Meanwhile the bay side of the island had piers that stopped 200 or more feet from even the high tide line. Some of this is likely the result of Sand Island just offshore migrating towards and now connecting with the main island. That appears to have dramatically altered the transport of silt and sand out of Mobile Bay so it is a lost cause protecting the West end of that island now. 

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2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

....I'm getting a Charley feeling, wrt playing catch up on intensity....small canes can ramp up fast!

Yeah. He won't be anywhere near as strong, but right now he's more Charley and less Opal. I wouldn't rule out any "surprises" with Nate even if unlikely

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