Amped Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Just bumped to Hurricane. That makes 9 in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 This is potentially a scary situation for Mobile Bay....don't forget, the normal collapse scenario may not be as applicable because this thing is moving nearly akin to a northeast hurricane...flying. Not much time to weaken, after a quick peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Yeah, this thing is really flying nnw. Recon now found 89 kts at flight level. There are several SFMR readings of hurricane force, but they are all flagged. Normally you would think this 89 kt at flight level would be co-located with 74-79 kt at the surface. So this type of wind speed might be happening soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 That mid level low that was supposed to be plaguing Nate's circulation through mid day tomorrow already appers to have been largely absorbed. I suspect this is the reason for the recent jump in intensity. Guidance seems lost on this aspect and is still (surprisingly) struggling to resolve the former competing circulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That mid level low that was suppose to be plaguing Nate's circulation through mid day tomorrow already appers to have been largely absorbed. I suspect this is the reason for the recent jump in intensity. Guidance seems lost on this aspect and is still (surprisingly) struggling to resolve the former competing circulations. Intensity forecasts are always a blind-folded swing at a pinada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Intensity forecasts are always a blind-folded swing at a pinada. Yea but short term guidance has been especially poor with him; Nate takes the cake so far this season imo. The nice thing about this forecast-wise is that this is where skill really shows. And I think the NHC has been doing a fantastic job with their forecast of Nate thus far despite these challenges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea but short term guidance has been especially poor with him; Nate takes the cake so far this season imo. The nice thing about this forecast-wise is that this is where skill really shows. And I think the NHC has been doing a fantastic job with their forecast of Nate thus far despite these challenges. I do not trust this season, man....demonstrated perhaps an unprecedented proclivity to morph marginal systems into upper end impactors within the blink of an eye- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Anyone offer up any insight as to how surge prone Mobile Bay is? That area could get it good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 People between Mobile and Pensacola have been expecting 30 or 40 mph winds. This blow up on the east side is very concerning. Nobody this Far East is expecting much, and won't have much time to prepare tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Just now, PennyForYourThoughts said: People between Mobile and Pensacola have been expecting 30 or 40 mph winds. This blow up on the east side is very concerning. Nobody this Far East is expecting much, and won't have much time to prepare tomorrow. That area should have never let their guard down, if they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Mobile bay is Very prone to flooding. The surge there is going to be noteworthy, even if he comes in la/missborder. The causeway across the bay floods easily as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Just now, PennyForYourThoughts said: People between Mobile and Pensacola have been expecting 30 or 40 mph winds. This blow up on the east side is very concerning. Nobody this Far East is expecting much, and won't have much time to prepare tomorrow. That area is under a hurricane warning and winds stronger than that have been forecast. I live here and forecast for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 The west and north sides of Mobile bay are very prone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, PennyForYourThoughts said: Mobile bay is Very prone to flooding. The surge there is going to be noteworthy, even if he comes in la/missborder. The causeway across the bay floods easily as well. I think Mobile Bay will capture headlines for Nate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ALhurricane said: That area is under a hurricane warning and winds stronger than that have been forecast. I live here and forecast for here. Are you private, media, or NWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Are you private, media, or NWS? NWS, but speak for myself on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is potentially a scary situation for Mobile Bay....don't forget, the normal collapse scenario may not be as applicable because this thing is moving nearly akin to a northeast hurricane...flying. Not much time to weaken, after a quick peak. Yeah, this fast forward motion isn't seen with many hurricanes approaching the northern Gulf coast. I would plan as if there won't be substantial weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 It's true that the lowest cloud-top temp here is -88C to -90C (no color bar here though.) Indicates an intense, temporary, burst of convection, lowering the pressure and increasing the winds. This hurricane year is just nuts. I vote that 2017 be re-named HurricaneYear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, Chinook said: It's true that the lowest cloud-top temp here is -88C to -90C (no color bar here though.) Indicates an intense, temporary, burst of convection, lowering the pressure and increasing the winds. This hurricane year is just nuts. I vote that 2017 be re-named HurricaneYear. to my untrained eye from this and the radar it appears that the eye is starting to define itself as well and it is just a matter of time before it emerges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Just kinda curious but isn't the storm further west than what the GFS is showing it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Pressure has fallen a bit more to 987 mb. The center is located at the sw edge of the intense blob of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 80mph 987mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Cloud tops are booming on IR, when's the next recon scheduled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Cloud tops are booming on IR, when's the next recon scheduled? They're actually waning a bit now.....but still impressive. Major hurricane growing more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 I am definitely thinking this landfalls as a cat 2 at this point, probably in the 100-110 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 00z Euro was fairly concerning for the New Orleans area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Deep convection firing around Nate. Could even be an eye popping up, but not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Pressure down to 982 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Never seen a cane book like this in the gom. The euro does show some slowing a bit near landfall, but will likely be inconsequential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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