Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, OHweather said:

If anything I agree that last minute trends are supporting a juicer solution.  Given the amount of moisture involved and sharp temp gradients, not too surprising.  The involved vort maxes look reasonably robust which doesn't hurt.  

For Franklin County, I'd probably have a warning.  I'm thinking a 4-6" accum for Columbus, right in the middle of the band of heaviest snow.  That's marginal on amounts for a warning, but it'll be a somewhat denser snow falling in temps in the mid 20s and hitting quickly during the commute.  It'll be high impact.  Here are the maps I put on FB a little earlier, still seem reasonable. 

 

27503770_329203697586959_499839130439175  27709875_329203740920288_268713631194293

If that .50" of ZR verifies that would be some major power outages ins southern OH. :yikes:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 272
  • Created
  • Last Reply
6 minutes ago, OHweather said:

If anything I agree that last minute trends are supporting a juicer solution.  Given the amount of moisture involved and sharp temp gradients, not too surprising.  The involved vort maxes look reasonably robust which doesn't hurt.  

For Franklin County, I'd probably have a warning.  I'm thinking a 4-6" accum for Columbus, right in the middle of the band of heaviest snow.  That's marginal on amounts for a warning, but it'll be a somewhat denser snow falling in temps in the mid 20s and hitting quickly during the commute.  It'll be high impact.  Here are the maps I put on FB a little earlier, still seem reasonable. 

 

  

I agree.  4-7 seems right.   I guess since Columbus is such a major snow town,  we don't need no warnings :lol::rolleyes:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I agree.  4-7 seems right.   I guess since Columbus is such a major snow town,  we don't need no warnings :lol::rolleyes:

Especially during morning commute. Gonna be a late night. I love quick hitters just because of the heavy snow so I'll stay up for the start at least. Needless to say it wouldn't bother me if it slowed down and made it to at least 3pm assuming it starts around 4 or 5am

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

If that .50" of ZR verifies that would be some major power outages ins southern OH. :yikes:

The ZR issue is tough.  Sometimes areas a little west of the OH River can hold onto temps just below freezing in these setups, some models show that, some rise temps to 33-34.  I took the colder idea to an extent, but with heavy precip rates some of that may run off...tho some models like the RGEM have like an inch of QPF as ZR and that won't all run off.  If those areas stay cold enough I think a quarter inch of actual accretion will occur in spots tho...half an inch is the absolute top end of actual accretion. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

It's actually further south still than it was at 12z. Had the zr line right at Coshocton now it's below muskingum. Updating my call because of it.

Just seen that the 04z run is indeed further south from the previous two. Upped the snow totals too. Hope that is a trend!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, vespasian70 said:

Is Tropicaltibits interpreting the model's data incorrectly? Mix line is further south with the 04z run.

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_8.jpg

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_7a.jpg

I'm seeing the same mix line on WxBell and in GR:Earth, so that appears to be correct.  Keep in mind the 540 line is pretty ****ty for rain/snow, though it's certainly possible it briefly sleets farther north than what the model ptype maps show...which could get very close for Columbus and Newark.  Based on radar and obs the precip is running closer to the wetter models than the drier models so far.  This sort of reminds me of a Deep South winter storm, where you have a disorganized STJ wave with a boatload of moisture and a lot of precip driven by WAA, but a generally unphased and disheveled looking storm...those often end up producing more QPF farther north than modeled ahead of time (and also more sleet/zr), and this one may be doing the same thing.  Looking at water vapor the northern stream shortwave over the Plains appears to be digging enough to allow the moisture to get pretty far north ahead of it.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I'm seeing the same mix line on WxBell and in GR:Earth, so that appears to be correct.  Keep in mind the 540 line is pretty ****ty for rain/snow, though it's certainly possible it briefly sleets farther north than what the model ptype maps show...which could get very close for Columbus and Newark.  Based on radar and obs the precip is running closer to the wetter models than the drier models so far.  This sort of reminds me of a Deep South winter storm, where you have a disorganized STJ wave with a boatload of moisture and a lot of precip driven by WAA, but a generally unphased and disheveled looking storm...those often end up producing more QPF farther north than modeled ahead of time (and also more sleet/zr), and this one may be doing the same thing.  Looking at water vapor the northern stream shortwave over the Plains appears to be digging enough to allow the moisture to get pretty far north ahead of it.  

Thanks for your thoughts, they are always appreciated!

Started snowing decently here. Nowcast time!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Right now sitting at 4". Not as robust as I expected despite never mixing.

If you can somehow manage to tack on an inch I'd take it...CMH was at 4" as of last hour.  Would be nice to sneak in a few 6-7" reports over east-central OH although I have my doubts.  Snowing at easily an inch per hour up here right now though I'm on the very NW edge of this band.  Seeing a few storm reports from the various NWS offices of ice around 0.25" and some tree damage to the SE.  Looks like everything panned out ok in many areas, but more of a low-end storm than a high-end storm in terms of verification. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, NoDoppler4TnySandz said:

Good luck guys-- looks like an inch and a half of slop in SE Hamilton County....better odds of accumulation in N/NW Cincy. Hoping for a little extra punch of cold air through the column...someone said it on here-- "you have to smell the rain, to get the heavy snow".....not liking the NAM depiction of ice....will see what the 12 z says

Glad to see it worked out for CMH-East.... any reports from Coshocton? I can't recall how far Apple Valley (nice golf) but I recall it being 15-20 miles? 

 

Anyway-- solid glaze in SE Cincy--- my 15 mile commute to the w/nw saw varied conditions trending more towards sleet...another 6 miles to the north in Butler County-- 3-4" of snow; I have heard Springboro got a solid hit.

Angry called the drunkeness of the 18z NAMs ---- though the 3k depicted the ice line well.

Oh well...on to 40's and rain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Haven't measured yet IMBY, but looks like close to 4" here on the SE side of Dayton.  What's impressive is it snowed here in the 1:30 to 5:30am time frame and 1.5hrs of that 4 hour window was a sleet & FR beat down!  It must have been 2" per hour rates at times to get 4" in 2.5hrs of actual snow fall, we could have hit 6".  Oh well the WTOD screwed us in SE edge the I70/75/71 Bermuda Triangle again, warm layer aloft went about 40 miles north of where ILN thought it was going!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Must admit,

I was up watching the snow rip overnight.  I'm 3 miles west of downtown Bellbrook, one of HighTechEE's neighbors.  At one point, huge flakes, low visibility, briefly rapid accumulation rates.  Thought I saw a coyote scamper across my yard right in the middle of that.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Overall I think this went reasonably as expected...two critiques that stand out:

1) The back edge did swing east a bit quicker than expected...so max amounts in SW OH were more like 3-4", 4-5" in central Ohio, and 5-7" in east-central OH as opposed to 4-7" all the way west.  That quicker back edge was evident up here as well.  I got over 3" in southeastern Cuyahoga County but the western lakeshore only got around an inch.  CLE's 0.6" is probably bs as the METAR had an hourly ob reporting an inch of snow in an hour and it snowed for 2 hours or so outside of that and the gauge actually managed to catch 0.09" of liquid.

2) The sleet/freezing rain was half a county to a county farther north than I expected in a lot of areas...the 3km NAM did pretty well on showing that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5" here.   Pretty much as expected and no complaints.  One hell of a 5 hour dump...inch an hour.    If this thing had been a little slower.... then again it might have allowed more warm air in.   I guess it truly was the best case scenario for CMH.

No complaints.  I guess all eyes for us turn to whatever happens late weekend.   Signal actually looks sort of icy but light.

@wxdudemike:   that sucks.  I looked at radar early morning and was surprised how far north the mix/rain had come into Ohio.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, buckeye said:

5" here.   Pretty much as expected and no complaints.  One hell of a 5 hour dump...inch an hour.    If this thing had been a little slower.... then again it might have allowed more warm air in.   I guess it truly was the best case scenario for CMH.

No complaints.  I guess all eyes for us turn to whatever happens late weekend.   Signal actually looks sort of icy but light.

@wxdudemike:   that sucks.  I looked at radar early morning and was surprised how far north the mix/rain had come into Ohio.

About 5 here too. U stay up for it last night? I would have liked to see how hard it must have been coming down. Too bad this one happened overnight. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...