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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


JoMo
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It's so close to Tulsa it HURTS. I'm just praying that when the storm develops that deformation band is just 20 miles closer....I don't need to be dead center with 6+ inches, I just want 3.

If I didn't have a 6 month old that hardly sleeps, I'd just get in my car and chase some snow! To think....I could chase tornadoes and then snow just hours apart in the same geographical area!

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1 minute ago, StormChazer said:

It's so close to Tulsa it HURTS. I'm just praying that when the storm develops that deformation band is just 20 miles closer....I don't need to be dead center with 6+ inches, I just want 3.

If I didn't have a 6 month old that hardly sleeps, I'd just get in my car and chase some snow! To think....I could chase tornadoes and then snow just hours apart in the same geographical area!

Oklahoma is a weather enthusiasts' DREAM for the next 36 hours! LOL:twister::maprain::snowwindow:

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9 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

It's so close to Tulsa it HURTS. I'm just praying that when the storm develops that deformation band is just 20 miles closer....I don't need to be dead center with 6+ inches, I just want 3.

If I didn't have a 6 month old that hardly sleeps, I'd just get in my car and chase some snow! To think....I could chase tornadoes and then snow just hours apart in the same geographical area!

Same, except for the baby part. 

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On 1/9/2020 at 8:39 AM, JoMo said:

Well, it might have a point on the less moisture in the 'wrap around' since there looks to be a big squall line scouring out much of the moisture out ahead of the system, and it doesn't have a big negative tilt to it.

Predictable that the GFS was overdoing moisture back in the cold since the trough didn't have a big negative tilt to it plus there's an extensive squall line out ahead of the system that's going to rob moisture. Looks like some banding is possible and those areas will probably pick up the most. Otherwise it looks like a general 1-3" snowfall. 

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I think here in NWAR we may see at least a couple of hours of fz rain (minimal) and sleet before the transition to snow.  This continues to cut down on snow totals.  Canadian has Benton County at 30 degrees at hour 24 and down to 26 at hour 30.  
 

The precip maps show rain at 24 and mix at 30. Sleet at 26 degrees is certainly possible but hopefully we get a transition to snow.   
 

As usual with complex situations like this, someone will over perform whiles others lose out (more sleet).  
 

Let the games begin! 

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My very uneducated opinion is that the details of the HRRR aren’t extremely reliable when looking at minute details.  As you pointed out, if you look back a few hours the details seem to vary widely at times.  I like to see the strong def band back in NW TX on the 16z even though parts ok OK aren’t filled in.  I think it’s a better look than the 12z. 
Again, just my 2 cents.  

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Man dont know about snow tomorrow(theres an advisory up lol) but we have a storm sitting over us right now that is pretty bad!!! The winds are terrible, constant thunder and lightning and torrential rain. Can only imagine how much snow or ice this would be had it been cold enough jeeesh, whole yard is flooded.

Just read Tulsas latest update, sounds like the accumulating snow stays in the far nw corner of arkansas tomorrow. Meh shocker, but they dont sound confident and stated it depends on where that deformation snow sets up.

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