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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


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3 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

I'm not saying we take the ICON seriously, but I will note that it has had a trend over the last few runs of going from a GFS solution to a Euro solution.

Looks like the tropical tidbits ICON doesn't show sleet or freezing rain. Everything after hour 93 is frozen in Joplin for example and it has "rain".

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Springfield says:

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The operational ECMWF is the most bullish with closing off
the low and wrap-around moderate to heavy snow. This seems a bit
extreme given that this upper level energy will be lifting into a
confluent flow.

The more likely scenario may be a neutral to perhaps slightly
negative tilt to the upper level trough tracking over the region
during the day on Saturday. This would still result in a
changeover to snow, but overall snowfall would be lighter in
nature. This scenario matches better with most ensemble output,
including GEFS mean plumes. Bottom line, confidence is still low
as this system is still well off the coast.

 

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06Z GFS and 12Z GFS looking for the most part the same, with the exception of slightly lighter amounts in Western MO.

12Z NAM vs 06Z has the system wrap up in KS as opposed to OK, backs off of snowfall in OK to around about an inch, and bombs in KS.

 

Overall, GFS holds steady after jumping more towards the Euro overnight(good to see the 12Z run of  the GFS do that, as the 06Z and 18Z can be unreliable).

Will see what the Euro does, I've got to think it's going to move the goal posts a little bit and go a touch north after shifting so far south(as models tend to do until they hit a nice in-between).

All we need really is for the NAM to sync up with the Euro and we can start locking in a solution at this point in time.

Also, if you take any stock in the 06Z Euro, it maintains the overnight's thinking of a southern solution.

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16 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

06Z GFS and 12Z GFS looking for the most part the same, with the exception of slightly lighter amounts in Western MO.

12Z NAM vs 06Z has the system wrap up in KS as opposed to OK, backs off of snowfall in OK to around about an inch, and bombs in KS.

 

Overall, GFS holds steady after jumping more towards the Euro overnight(good to see the 12Z run of  the GFS do that, as the 06Z and 18Z can be unreliable).

Will see what the Euro does, I've got to think it's going to move the goal posts a little bit and go a touch north after shifting so far south(as models tend to do until they hit a nice in-between).

All we need really is for the NAM to sync up with the Euro and we can start locking in a solution at this point in time.

Also, if you take any stock in the 06Z Euro, it maintains the overnight's thinking of a southern solution.

I still think we need to wait at least another 24-36 hours before we start talking about locking a solution in. When will this be fully sampled? 

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