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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


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Here are my findings for the 00Z Euro run members. For S&G I ran the same deal on the 12Z afternoon run yesterday(see below).

 

00Z-12/10

0      3, 36,37,40,43,45,46,48,        Total:8

<1    4*,9,12,13*,16,18,24,27,30*,32,34,35,39,49, Total:14

1-3    1,5,10,11,14,15*,23,26,29,38,41,42*,44*,50  Total:14

3+    2,6,7,8,17,19,20,21,22,25,28,31,33,47  Total:14

 

* on edge of 3+

 

 

 

Here is the 21Z run from yesterday.

12Z-12/9/19

0      3,7,8,15,16,17,28,29,30,32,33,35,38,41,42,47,48,49 Total:18

<1    2,12,14,20,34,36,46,50 Total:8

1-3   1, 6,11,19,21,23,24,31,37,45, Total:10

3+    4, 5,9,10,13,18,22,25,26,27,39,40,43,44, Total:14

As you can see, 10 members moved from a no-snow solution to snow, excited to see the noon run today.1468105700_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-scentus-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-6713600(1).thumb.png.0cc3477131a96bdb1a44fbf6f448643d.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-scentus-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-6713600 (1).png

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Well there certainly seems to be decent agreement from all the major global models for some sort of system in the Sunday-Monday time frame. The GFS, Euro & GEM were all showing some snow as of last night's runs. It has got my attention for maybe the first time this season here in Wichita. I'm now in check the models daily mode and hopefully the trend continues over the next 72 hours. Feels like it's been forever since we had a good snow here. 

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1 minute ago, StormChazer said:

If the Euro holds it's ground on the 12Z then I'll feel ok with this GFS run, bound to have fluctuations. If it backs off too, then I'll just go cry in a corner at work.

Im not gonna get too worried about a single model run 5-6 days out. 

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4 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Main precip shield is looking further south but not quite as strong as of hour 126.

But it comes back with a stronger band later on. I dig. But it's a really precarious situation. Nice "4" inch snowfall for Joplin and Tulsa. 

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None of us are surprised with the major difference between the GFS and the Euro.  Southern end of measurable snow is Fayetteville on the Euro and Kansas City on the GFS. Only 250 mile difference.  And the Canadian splits the uprights.   I think we all agree to lean towards the Euro even if it wasn’t currently in our favor. 

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