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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


JoMo
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2 hours ago, Doramo said:

Does anyone have an idea when there will be a winter 2019 - 2020 thread or is everybody still bummed out about 3rd (edit-3 yrs in a row) winter snow disparity ?  

I updated the title a few days ago for this year, hoping the 3rd time is a charm. Looks like winter will get started in the Northern Plains by the end of the week as the first big winter storm hits. Not sure what to expect this winter as there are some conflicting signals. 

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3 hours ago, JoMo said:

I updated the title a few days ago for this year, hoping the 3rd time is a charm. Looks like winter will get started in the Northern Plains by the end of the week as the first big winter storm hits. Not sure what to expect this winter as there are some conflicting signals. 

Thanks jomo...I should of looked at the ttile first... It had been the same for so long I guess I tired of looking...anyway my bad :wub: .   And yeah as you mentioned winter in the plains etc. How about that snow monsoon they received in the North-West .   I would so love a 3 ft snow :snowing: here it our area.    Anyway here is to hoping that the snow drought is finally over this winter and that mama nature reimburses us for the lack :)

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18 hours ago, Doramo said:

Thanks jomo...I should of looked at the ttile first... It had been the same for so long I guess I tired of looking...anyway my bad :wub: .   And yeah as you mentioned winter in the plains etc. How about that snow monsoon they received in the North-West .   I would so love a 3 ft snow :snowing: here it our area.    Anyway here is to hoping that the snow drought is finally over this winter and that mama nature reimburses us for the lack :)

Yeah, I was pretty jealous of Montana. That's a crazy amount of snow. I think we paid for the above normal snowfall we had in the mid 2010's with the lack of snowfall for the last few years. Looks like we may get a weak El-nino this year. Was hoping for a neutral. 

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7 hours ago, JoMo said:

Yeah, I was pretty jealous of Montana. That's a crazy amount of snow. I think we paid for the above normal snowfall we had in the mid 2010's with the lack of snowfall for the last few years. Looks like we may get a weak El-nino this year. Was hoping for a neutral. 

Jomo, what you think about this winter with IOD and other stuff? I feel that its still early to even guess what may happen.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Jomo, what you think about this winter with IOD and other stuff? I feel that its still early to even guess what may happen.

Well, it's looking like it could be a Modoki Nino, which is decent for our area I believe. The AO was mostly negative during the summer. So it's either going to spring back positive for an extended period or remain negative during the winter (persistence) which would be good.  We'll have to see as things move forward though. The last couple years have looked like they would be good and in the end, things changed or didn't turn out as planned.

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IOD, descending QBO, Modoki atmosphere, in spite of what the surface looks like at this time and that HUGE HUGE storm due north all look fantastic for winter implications this year. As JoMo said, though, stuff could change. Seeing signs of a nice looking Bering Sea low developing in the future as well. 

I think the signs all point to a go for winter after week three of November down here. That's my honest opinion. 

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My analogs had parts of Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas pretty snowy if you want to see. I included some slides at the end of my forecast about how well I did last year, so you can decide if it is worth paying attention to what I have or not. There is a slide that has snow totals for Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Little Rock and some other towns in the region if you are curious.

 

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18 hours ago, ouamber said:

Hi Everyone!!! The cooler weather has got me excited for winter! It better show up in a big way this year! Snow for everybody!:sled::snowing:

 

.....and since I'm an alumni, guess what? It's 11:13am and Texas still sucks! #HornsDown #BoomerSooner

Boomer!! We're gonna dominate the little pronghorns today. :) Sould be a great game.

Heck of a way to return from hibernation, my friend! Lol

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10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

My analogs had parts of Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas pretty snowy if you want to see. I included some slides at the end of my forecast about how well I did last year, so you can decide if it is worth paying attention to what I have or not. There is a slide that has snow totals for Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Little Rock and some other towns in the region if you are curious.

 

I wrote a longer post but it disappeared. Anyway, great stuff raindancewx. I always enjoy the way you approach forecasting. Very thorough. Well done.

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11 hours ago, JoMo said:

Too bad the fantasy maps never happen. 12z GFS might have a little rain/snow mix for KS/MO on Thurs night.

I know, but it was fun to post. It wasn't really intended in seriousness.

The upcoming pattern for the next few weeks is pretty nice though. Need it to repeat in winter.

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On 10/23/2019 at 9:24 AM, JoMo said:

Keep seeing people mention 2014 and 2004 a lot. Disappointing years for snowfall here. 

I see absolutely nothing at all that brings reminiscences of either of the 2 years.

 

My thoughts lean, in terms of actual weather to date, towards a blend of 2000, 2008, 2010 and 2013.

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3 hours ago, MUWX said:

Gfs has this as well in the 18z. Not sure if it’s the same system or not 

Yeah, it's been showing up off and on. Something to watch but not really get too excited over until about 24 hours before it actually happens..

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