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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


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raindance is correct. The upcoming winter, if it errs on the warm side as the Nino forecasts seem to be making it, will be subject to long-term CAD events. (C.old A.ir D.amming) If we err on the side of severe cold, it will be major snow events for most of this area and very prolonged severe cold. If we have that odd situation where the tropics are strong and the cold is locked into the US all winter (think Russia the last 3 seasons), well, use your imagination about the severity of that.

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Whats going on everyone? How are all of you doing? So what do you guys/gals think for this upcoming winter. This has been one crazy rainy summer and start to fall!!!! I feel as though this is all setting up for some major icing events this winter but who really knows. For surely we cant go(at least here in arkansas lol) for the 4th season with half an inch of snowfall for the winter season haha. Hope you all are doing good!! Can't wait to kick off the season and get rolling in here again, been awful quiet!

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  • 2 weeks later...

Don't write much but am an avid follower and love to read y'alls take/ input.:D      I have a question  about the lack of snow for the past three winters and it is,  has this ever happened before in this area? We are talking about the overall area that is covered here. I have not seen any snow consistency records , don't know if there is such. Just curious .  I'm thinking surely that we could not go another year on the skimpy snow can we? :huh:

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3 hours ago, Doramo said:

Don't write much but am an avid follower and love to read y'alls take/ input.:D      I have a question  about the lack of snow for the past three winters and it is,  has this ever happened before in this area? We are talking about the overall area that is covered here. I have not seen any snow consistency records , don't know if there is such. Just curious .  I'm thinking surely that we could not go another year on the skimpy snow can we? :huh:

I can't speak for the whole area but I can tell you that for Oklahoma City the period from 2015-2018 had the lowest three winter snow total on record there. It's been rough out there for snow lovers.

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50 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

I can't speak for the whole area but I can tell you that for Oklahoma City the period from 2015-2018 had the lowest three winter snow total on record there. It's been rough out there for snow lovers.

Thanks for info....I have been living here near West Plains, MO off n on for 38 yr and have never experienced such a snow-less period...I mean the total for the last three years is roughly 3" give or take . I'm thinking this has to be some kind of record . I surely hope this winter breaks the trend and Mom Nature makes up for the lack this year..

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Not putting any stock into a early-mid November snow storm.

I cant help but think about how awesome yesterday would have been if it were 15 degrees colder, hoping the Heady and Lezak are on to something with the cycling pattern because that one would be fun in the middle of winter.

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2 hours ago, MUWX said:

Not putting any stock into a early-mid November snow storm.

I cant help but think about how awesome yesterday would have been if it were 15 degrees colder, hoping the Heady and Lezak are on to something with the cycling pattern because that one would be fun in the middle of winter.

I almost posted that same thing yesterday!  Perfect storm track with post frontal precip.  Hopefully Heady’s pattern is legit and that comes back around in 45-60 days.  

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New Euro Seasonal is out on weather.us

December and February look ok. January doesn't look great for our area. Generally near normal temps in Dec and Feb and above normal in Jan. Precip looks to be below normal though. The southern storm track is there at least. It we could get something like 02-03, that would be great though.

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47 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Looks like the 12z CMC has this as well.  And the 06z FV3 to a lesser degree.  Maybe something to watch.  

Im sure you’ll update us again after the 12z Euro.

12z Euro still has a system, but it's marginal temps overall, still snowfall roughly along and N of I-44 but not as much as it wants to be more of a mix. 
12z UKMET was farther south with precip, not sure if snowfall or what, across AR. 

It's going to be interesting because it all comes down to the timing of 3 different pieces of energy and how they interact. 

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51 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Looks like the 12z CMC has this as well.  And the 06z FV3 to a lesser degree.  Maybe something to watch.  

Im sure you’ll update us again after the 12z Euro.

You can look at that on weather.us its the best free site I have found for the Euro. Has the Operational, control, and then the ensembles as well.

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