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MO/KS/AR/OK 2018-2019 Winter Wonderland Discussion

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1 minute ago, The Waterboy said:

Any idea why those 2 different map views don’t match?   The Kansas view shows a large area of 6+ inches in purple.  The MO view has the purple in MO only.  

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_missouri_18.thumb.png.90720ef8b70d669d6c0c8d6733fbd1c0.pngDifferent ratio algorithm than the basic 10:1

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20 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Any idea why those 2 different map views don’t match?   The Kansas view shows a large area of 6+ inches in purple.  The MO view has the purple in MO only.  

Different Ratio Models, Kansas is Kuhera Temp Profile Ratio. MO is 10/1

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Temps will probably be a bit colder than the 10:1 standard ratio, especially the farther north you go. It looks interesting for maybe a couple of inches where the snow does fall. Better chances KS/MO of course.

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Local TV met’s thoughts here in Tulsa.

I can say with some certainty that he’s pretty “over” winter at this point and is pretty pessimistic(with good reason) on snow lately. So take that for what it’s worth.

 

“Just a quick note: 

The snow potential on Sunday is very similar to what we have seen through most of the winter. Flurries and snow showers. Sometimes, in a very cold airmass like this you can get some higher snowfall rates. What I have noticed is that with this type of setup our data goes a little overboard this far out. 

Right now, I do believe it will be rather light and a minor event. Only caveat is that the air is so cold, even the lightest of snow will stick.”

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1 minute ago, StormChazer said:

Local TV met’s thoughts here in Tulsa.

I can say with some certainty that he’s pretty “over” winter at this point and is pretty pessimistic(with good reason) on snow lately. So take that for what it’s worth.

 

“Just a quick note: 

The snow potential on Sunday is very similar to what we have seen through most of the winter. Flurries and snow showers. Sometimes, in a very cold airmass like this you can get some higher snowfall rates. What I have noticed is that with this type of setup our data goes a little overboard this far out. 

Right now, I do believe it will be rather light and a minor event. Only caveat is that the air is so cold, even the lightest of snow will stick.”

Not saying he's wrong, but seems suspect. Although I can't disagree with continuance forecasting 

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GFS and NAM have two VERY different opinions. That being said, the 12Z NAM is coming in a little colder, let's see how this run finishes up.

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Yeah, the NAM is concerning since it has much lower amounts. It's usually pretty juiced. 

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Meteorologist Michael Armstrong out of OKC's thoughts on the upcoming storm.

"Many areas have now gone 2 to 3 days below freezing. This will likely have some significant impacts on the upcoming winter storm for this weekend. In other words, greater impacts than earlier winter when warm days led into those."

 

53010752_1082822785242909_3816711293042163712_n.jpg.08875d899fe3978ceb93e76d9e50b308.jpg

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MoWeatherGuy, anything happen up there last night? I got up at 6am to use the bathroom and noticed a coating of what looked like snow on the ground!!!!

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All I'm asking for is 3 inches of snow here in Tulsa. I'll even take 2-2.5. This is the last shot of the winter and even though it will have been another under-performing season, going out on a high note like this would scratch that 4 year itch that has built up. Not to mention whatever falls we get to enjoy all day Sunday, Monday, and some of Tuesday.

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It is not like there is really warm air in the area, it is cold well south at this time. 

 

latest.tair.png

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50 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

MoWeatherGuy, anything happen up there last night? I got up at 6am to use the bathroom and noticed a coating of what looked like snow on the ground!!!!

Nothing at my house, but I did see some light snow on vehicles at work this morning in Springdale. 

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Big differences ion model totals and types? I will take what the Gfs is having, fantasy Im sure lol. I will believe it when I see it but plzzzzz just give us all some snow!!! I would be extremely happy with 3"

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Just now, MoWeatherguy said:

Nothing at my house, but I did see some light snow on vehicles at work this morning in Springdale. 

Crazy, yea man the ground was completely covered here. Of course its all melted now, the case this winter more snow from surprise no mention events lol

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1 hour ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Crazy, yea man the ground was completely covered here. Of course its all melted now, the case this winter more snow from surprise no mention events lol

Sad but true bro.

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Too early to temp watch? SGF had a forecast high of 45 this morning, now calling for a high of 38.

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34 in Tulsa right now, TSA was calling for 42 today, now lowered to 40. Only about 4 more hours left to heat up, and I'm not sure I see that happening.

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DISCUSSION...
Shallow cold air remains firmly entrenched over the area, with
low cloudiness remaining trapped below the inversion. While there
may be a few breaks later this afternoon, for the most part the
clouds will remain. As such, have lowered afternoon high
temperatures several degrees.

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Could probably bump up those snow totals for N OK a bit given expected snow-liquid ratios >10:1... Likely looking at 13:1 to 16:1 ratios across Southern Missouri/Kansas and Northern Oklahoma, with 17:1 to 20:1 ratios closer to the KC metro. Altogether it is looking increasingly likely that large portions of KS and MO will receive 5-10" totals (with some isolated amounts potentially exceeding 10 inches of snow, especially across SE KS and SW MO). Appears that there could be a pretty tight gradient across NE OK and NW AR, where 2-5"+ could fall, extreme NE OK could get closer to 6-8"... Whereas other parts of those regions could receive more nominal snow accumulations.

Still should have some pause I suppose about higher snow totals existing over SE KS/SW MO (in addition to northern OK's overall snow potential, as well) given the differing solutions presented by the NAM and CMC (mainly the NAM though, as has been discussed) as opposed to the GFS/Euro solutions.

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SGF has dropped totals by 1-2 inches area wide, by their own admission they are going on the low side of guidance. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Hopefully the AFD will shed some light on their thinking.

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21 minutes ago, MUWX said:

SGF has dropped totals by 1-2 inches area wide, by their own admission they are going on the low side of guidance. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Hopefully the AFD will shed some light on their thinking.

And the disappointment begins...

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Just now, JMT417 said:

And the disappointment begins...

I wouldn't get too worried about it yet. AFD says to expect changes over the next 24 hours. One thing of interest, they are going with the NAM short term.

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