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MO/KS/AR/OK 2018-2019 Winter Wonderland Discussion

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43 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Haha you got it man.   This is a slop crap system like the others.   Can't argue against trends.  Winter threat is empty again.   We're done. 

Yea man I am curious to see what happens or how well that forecast busts again lol. Sitting at, you guessed it 33 currently no kidding haha

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Schools in the OKc metro area are starting to close for Tues.

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Latest Nam has OKc metro with near 5 inches and Northern Oklahoma with 6 to 8 inches of snow

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Keep an eye on temps today. That is the key. Will be some impressive snowfall rates in areas that are cold enough for it. Borderline call either way with huge bust potential.

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Well the temp here is 28 and I hope it holds to at or below the freezing mark . That and it would be nice to see the low go a little farther south ...don't like freezing mix slop as we have had enough of it already . B)

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It's oddly therapeutic for me to do this. Here is the 12Z 3K NAM. I outlined the 2 inch contour and highlighted Tulsa county. If this verified this way, I would rage. What is it about this area? It feels supernatural at this point! lol

 

nam3km_asnow_scus_23.png

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4 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

NWS delaying onset of precip thus delays wetbulbing,

Hopefully we cool quickly :)

Actually, looking out my window downtown, things are getting wet. Freezing drizzle shown on radar.

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53 minutes ago, ouamber said:

Watching the freezing line today.  It's pretty much running along I-44.

 

Yep, its 37 here warmer than anticipated so far. I guess we will see, I dont have high hopes for this I know that lol. Tulsas forecast keeps changing and they have a mixed bag of everything mentioned now in my forecast.

 

 

 

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I'll be honest here. Tulsa NWS is doing the best they can, but I think they've conceded to the fact that this is nowcasting at this point. We truly just won't know until the precip arrives. It's hard to predict if it will rain hard enough to pull the colder air down and cool the column enough to counteract how warm it gets beforehand.

I mean......how does one calculate the needed rate of rainfall necessary to counteract each degree? If it's 1 degree warmer than predicted, how much heavier does the precip need to be to cancel that out, etc? 

Kudos to TSA(and Norman) as this stuff is just a mess to predict. But until it starts falling and we see where that transition line is setting up, it's just all about using climatological norms, and and weather balloons/models to try and predict this, which in the 11th hour, is a crapshoot in this kind of set up(imo).

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11 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

16z HRRR shows a temp of 44 in Tulsa at 21z.

HRRR has always been the warmest for this event. Doesn't mean its wrong necessarily, but it seems to be the warmest model by far.

As of 11, it seems to be running 2-3 degrees to warm in SWMO.

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8 minutes ago, lokee said:

Heavier preceip is crossing the Oklahoma/Texas line right now

It'll be good to watch those temps down there to see if they start dropping.

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43 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

I'll be honest here. Tulsa NWS is doing the best they can, but I think they've conceded to the fact that this is nowcasting at this point. We truly just won't know until the precip arrives. It's hard to predict if it will rain hard enough to pull the colder air down and cool the column enough to counteract how warm it gets beforehand.

I mean......how does one calculate the needed rate of rainfall necessary to counteract each degree? If it's 1 degree warmer than predicted, how much heavier does the precip need to be to cancel that out, etc? 

Kudos to TSA(and Norman) as this stuff is just a mess to predict. But until it starts falling and we see where that transition line is setting up, it's just all about using climatological norms, and and weather balloons/models to try and predict this, which in the 11th hour, is a crapshoot in this kind of set up(imo).

So true, I wouldnt want to be doing this stuff no way. Its fun to follow but probly a nightmare predicting this junk. It's just shy of 40 here now

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Mesoscale Discussion 0109
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central Oklahoma and Vicinity

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 191807Z - 192200Z

SUMMARY...An area of precipitation lifting northward from the Red
River will encounter colder air to the north. Both freezing rain and
sleet will be possible within the I-44 corridor, including the OKC
metro area. Farther northwest, snow will be more likely. Heaviest
precipitation should occur between 2-4 pm CST.

DISCUSSION...Current radar mosaic shows an area of precipitation
moving northward out of north Texas and crossing the Red River.
Temperatures in the I-44 corridor have risen slightly since this
morning to the low 30s with upper 20s to the northwest. A
complicating factor in where the highest freezing rain potential
will exist is the warmer surface temperatures in northeast Oklahoma
leading to modest warm air advection into the discussion area.
Dewpoints remain in the low 20s in that region, however, and some
decrease in temperature due to precipitation-cooled air is possible
as drier air continues to advect in. The 18 UTC OUN sounding shows a
pronounced, saturated warm nose of +3-4C centered around 825 mb.
This would indicate that freezing rain will be the predominant
precipitation in this area, though some sleet is possible within
heavier/convective elements. Farther to the northwest, generally
colder 850 mb temperatures should keep more of the precipitation as
snow. Expect the heaviest precipitation to occur from 2-4 pm CST.

 

image.png.a1eba71d15378a1055fea5916a0ecd95.png

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Raining in Moore right now. Nothing looks to be freezing this was about 30 mins ago. Has changed over to some light sleet at 1:08

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Keeping an eye on the dews here in Fayetteville... temp of 39 but a dewpoint of 22 with moderate rain about to move in... could see some impressive evaporational cooling. (At least I can dream right :D)

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Lightest bit of rain, sleet and snow all simultaneously fell in south Tulsa. As I type it’s straight sleet now. If it’s like this now, curious if that means sleet later when it picks up.

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2 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Lightest bit of rain, sleet and snow all simultaneously fell in south Tulsa. As I type it’s straight sleet now. If it’s like this now, curious if that means sleet later when it picks up.

Just got some N of Owasso.

Fairly heavy for a few minutes 

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Interesting. If that’s the thermal profile of the atmosphere now with light precipitation, I’d think that means when the heavier stuff moves in and drags the colder air down that we’d see all sleet and snow coming down moderately to heavy.

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1 minute ago, StormChazer said:

Interesting. If that’s the thermal profile of the atmosphere now with light precipitation, I’d think that means when the heavier stuff moves in and drags the colder air down that we’d see all sleet and snow coming down moderately to heavy.

*crossing my fingers* I'm about to head out for lunch and scope out the weather. I'm on the north side of Tulsa today.

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This looks like an all rain event to me in SWMO. Looks like the HRRR may have nailed this one. Not sure if its too close to the event for the NAM to matter, but 12z run had 3-6 inches of 'snow,' 18z run says what snow. It has totally caved to the HRRR. Temps have soared past forecast highs. Currently sitting at 40, after the high was 35, it has now been bumped to 41. There is a huge spread in temps and dew points here, which could save us but that seems unlikely. Maybe some mixing in but after multiple forecasters were calling for snow amounts pushing an inch an hour at rush hour here, this really looks like a big miss. Could be wrong, but I don see it.

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