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MO/KS/AR/OK 2018-2019 Winter Wonderland Discussion

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7 hours ago, ouamber said:

image.png.5d282e3d5cb64caf496a717cbf16ad57.png

This is my last hope for this year...

I'm shocked you are still hanging on lol...I gave up long ago. I been seeing hints to this everywhere online and in writeups though, I wouldn't be tooting on about this so early again if I were a met though. IDK I guess we will see right :)

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I see the 12Z Euro has moved the higher frozen precipitation amounts mainly along and north of Highway 54 in Missouri. 

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1 hour ago, garfan said:

I see the 12Z Euro has moved the higher frozen precipitation amounts mainly along and north of Highway 54 in Missouri. 

00z control dumps on OK.

Got some lightning and thunder in the meantime :)

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GFS is still showing something rolling through the Southern Plains early next week.  2-13 18z showing Tulsa to get some Freezing rain on Friday 2/15.

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Friday morning looks interesting in N OK.

NAM shows .34 in total liquid precip but has most of that as freezing rain or sleet. Tulsa NWS says NAM temps may be too warm as it warms above freezing after noon.

3K has .14 liquid equivalent and all of it freezing rain or sleet and keeps temps dropping all day.

GFS at .11 with all of it freezing rain or sleet N of I244. It doesn’t have the cold air as far S. GFS showed this system I think on Monday as all snow then dropped it.

V3 keeps measurable precip east of HWY 69 with trace amounts of freezing rain. It is further N with cold air than the GFS too.

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Looks as much of the frozen precipitation will stay right along the Oklahoma/Kansas border according the the  2/14 12z HRRR. Both the  GFS and Gfs 3k have light amounts of snow Tues Wed time frame.

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...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY...


Benton-Carroll-Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-
Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-Delaware-Creek-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville, 
Eureka Springs, Pawhuska, Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, Miami, 
Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore, Pryor, Grove, Jay, and Sapulpa
226 PM CST Thu Feb 14 2019

* WHAT...A mixture of freezing rain and sleet is expected
beginning late tonight through the day Friday. Total sleet
accumulations of a few tenths of an inch, and ice accumulations
of a light glaze to near a tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
generally along and north of a line from Tulsa Oklahoma to
Bentonville Arkansas.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 6 PM CST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, including
during the morning commute on Friday across northeast Oklahoma.
Bridges and overpasses will be the first to be impacted by any
slick surfaces. 

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That advisory will probly push further south, and bust number 6 will take place lol. Ground is just way too warm again, it will probly be another 33-34 degree cold a** rain like every other crappy storm has been this season haha.

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8 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

That advisory will probly push further south, and bust number 6 will take place lol. Ground is just way too warm again, it will probly be another 33-34 degree cold a** rain like every other crappy storm has been this season haha.

You were right! They expanded it south one county.

Its 2-3 degrees colder than expected too.

Bartlesville schools closed. Sleet mixed in as far S as Owasso. Sleet in Owasso is very light and very small though.

Elevates surfaces glazed here too.

At 29-30 degrees right now, we’re close to roads icing. 2-3 degree drop and it would be ugly.

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SW MO and NW AR look pretty good for snow today. Good luck y'all! 

IMBY Tulsa is still getting screwed. *over it*

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Just now, ouamber said:

SW MO and NW AR look pretty good for snow today. Good luck y'all! 

IMBY Tulsa is still getting screwed. *over it*

I wouldn't say it looks good for snow, but it looks good for freezing rain and sleet 

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5 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I wouldn't say it looks good for snow, but it looks good for freezing rain and sleet 

Oh ok, yah I was just looking at the radar. Well hopefully it will change over!

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That was predictable, I guess I called that one lol. Advisory until 6pm but its just another cold drizzle at 33!!

Our KC friends said its snowing heavily up there, simply amazing how many times we have been screwed this winter. Such a sad sad shame with all the moisture that's been around, oh well. I am so so ready for spring

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Latest Euro has Okc picking up near 4 inches of snow by 9pm Tues 2/19. Although, it also this system being a mess of a mix bag.

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Sorry to hear of your snow-free streak down south.
Meanwhile in eastern Nebraska:
Making room for more. Feb 15, 2019
The local wx people say that we have exceeded our seasonal average of snowfall here. 05b79eab8986621dc08bbf581b85295a.jpg

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk

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Amber did Tulsa put you in an advisory? Total bust here so far, been 36 and raining good all day.

One of these times we are going to get nailed and no one is going to take Tulsa NWS seriously because of all their boo boo's and busts. I know it sounds rude but I have never lived somewhere and seen so many bad forecasts in my life, it's been this way for the last 6 years living here...terrible terrible forecasting from them usually. And I thought Mt.Holly was bad in Jersey growing up there lol

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28 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Amber did Tulsa put you in an advisory? Total bust here so far, been 36 and raining good all day.

One of these times we are going to get nailed and no one is going to take Tulsa NWS seriously because of all their boo boo's and busts. I know it sounds rude but I have never lived somewhere and seen so many bad forecasts in my life, it's been this way for the last 6 years living here...terrible terrible forecasting from them usually. And I thought Mt.Holly was bad in Jersey growing up there lol

I think you vastly underestimate how difficult it is to forecast winter weather in this area 

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11 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I think you vastly underestimate how difficult it is to forecast winter weather in this area 

Oh believe me I totally get that, was just venting is all. I cant imagine how difficult of a job it must be but still is just my opinion that's all.

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41 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Amber did Tulsa put you in an advisory? Total bust here so far, been 36 and raining good all day.

One of these times we are going to get nailed and no one is going to take Tulsa NWS seriously because of all their boo boo's and busts. I know it sounds rude but I have never lived somewhere and seen so many bad forecasts in my life, it's been this way for the last 6 years living here...terrible terrible forecasting from them usually. And I thought Mt.Holly was bad in Jersey growing up there lol

Yea Tulsa was under an advisory, but it's just freezing drizzle right now. No biggie.  *crossing my fingers* for Tuesday!

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8 minutes ago, ouamber said:

Yea Tulsa was under an advisory, but it's just freezing drizzle right now. No biggie.  *crossing my fingers* for Tuesday!

Yeah, I must say this is the last storm of the season that I'm going to follow or feel any excitement leading up to it. If this churns out nothing for us, then unless something is a day out I'm going to need to recharge until next winter.

 

That being said, here's the EURO. Interestingly enough, it keep Tulsa JUST BARELY above freezing for a few hours during moderate precip, so if that snow line inches over 30 miles, Tulsa looks to get 4-6 inches. I know amounts are trivial and useless to get focused on this far out, but just worth noting.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019021512_120_483_215.png

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Just now, lokee said:

Okc TV weather guys starting to start in about Tues.

Let me guess...Mike Morgan?:lol:

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2 minutes ago, ouamber said:

Let me guess...Mike Morgan?:lol:

Yeap and Jonathan Conder from KOCO 

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I'll have what the 12Z EURO 168 hour forecast is having for SE KS and SW MO. 

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These models are making me really nervous. Every single one has Tulsa RIGHT on the line. I know models don’t handle shallow air well, so my hope is that they’re underdoing it right now but I swear if it’s 33-34 and raining on Tuesday while 30 miles west it’s snowing I’m going to officially admit that the snow gods hate NE OK.

That being said, if they are underdoing the cold air, then that honestly sets Tulsa up for an ice storm, which to be honest, at this point, my winter weather starved self would welcome.

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