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JoMo

MO/KS/AR/OK 2018-2019 Winter Wonderland Discussion

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AFD TUL

Attention then turns to the wintry weather potential on Saturday.
Model solutions change the track of the upper storm system with
each run. One of the extended models brings the upper low well
south of its previous track, while another model brings the upper
low over Tulsa. This solution would keep the heaviest snow within
the deformation band north of Tulsa. For now, we have high
confidence that temperatures will be warm enough for all rain
Friday night, with the cold air moving into northeast Oklahoma
early Saturday morning. If the system is a bit slower, with more
of a closed low, there could be a 2-4 hour period of moderate snow
Saturday morning, across portions of northeast Oklahoma. There
will likely be a transition zone of a rain/snow mix, or snow with
sleet mixing in. By Saturday afternoon, it should be cold enough
for all snow, but the forcing for ascent will also be departing
the area, which will limit the time for accumulating snow given
current forecast data.

This airmass will be the coldest of the season, and combined with
strong northwest winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour, wind chill
values in the single digits are likely by Saturday night and
Sunday morning. In areas where we get accumulating snow, the wind
could cause blowing and drifting. Precipitation moves out quickly
on Saturday night, but Sunday will be cold with highs in the 20s
and 30s. Another chance for wintry precipitation arrives by
Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, just beyond this forecast.
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Not that it matters on Tuesday but there is still a nice snowpack from Topeka to Omaha and Lincoln. Overcast and 35 does not support much melt. Good luck with snow in Tulsa from this long timer lurker!


.

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Again no words for how crappy all this cold rain is non stop, it's just getting old now! I guess things can and probly will change but who knows. Such a shame, I know I keep saying that but the moisture is just there every week...we just desperately need cold air and better storm tracks. So heartbreaking, I feel like Im being dumped over and over but by mother nature haha

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Definitely need to watch trends. Remember last week's system was trending in a specific direction as the models converged on a specific solution. The same will likely happen with this system as well. Won't be fully sampled until tomorrow I believe, too. 

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TSA Discussion

DISCUSSION...
Forecast focus remains squarely on the strong storm system set to
move through Friday night and into Saturday, with strong
thunderstorms, accumulating snow, significantly colder temperatures,
and low wind chills all possible. Models continue to struggle with
consistency in timing and the eventual path of the surface and
upper level features, and as such, low confidence remains in the
details surrounding this event.

Presently, low stratus deck continues across most of the forecast
area, with expansion of the cloud deck likely to lead to at least
mostly cloudy skies most locations by daybreak. Expect cloudy
skies to persist for much of the day as low level moisture expands
ahead of a fast moving disturbance that will push through the
region tonight. Have kept toward the lower end of guidance for
temperatures today due to the expected cloud cover. Showers and/or
drizzle will be possible overnight as the disturbance moves
through. Clouds should diminish some behind the disturbance,
resulting in highs expected to be a few degrees warmer than
today.

Cloud cover will increase again from the west during the day
Friday as the stronger system approaches, with the initial rain
still expected to hold off until the afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms ahead of the approaching cold front still look to be
a good bet, especially across southeast Oklahoma, given forecast
instability. Any strong thunderstorm potential should be limited
to areas near the Red River, where CAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg are
currently forecast. With the current models trending slower, the
thunderstorm potential will linger into early Saturday morning.

This slower trend will also delay the onset of any notable wintry
precipitation until after daybreak Saturday. It continues to look
like most areas will see rain with a transition to snow, although
there still looks like there could be a narrow buffer time frame
when freezing rain/sleet could be possible. 

Accumulations of either will be negligible with snow dominating in the wintry
precipitation department. 

Besides the slower model trend, there is
also a more southerly trend than the 15/00Z suite, more like the
15/12Z suite. If this trend holds, this could place the maximum
amounts in eastern Oklahoma farther south than the Kansas border
and perhaps similarly in northwest Arkansas. For now, will go with
a broad brush 2 to 3 inch area north of I-40 given the difficulty
in pinpointing where any snow band might set up. 

Precipitation remains likely to move out by early Sunday morning.

With regards to the expected cold temperatures, the cold air
intrusion does not look quite as strong this morning as it did 24
hours ago. Forecast temperatures from Saturday night into early
next week will be a few degrees higher this cycle but not
significantly so. The likelihood of single digit wind chills late
Saturday night and early Sunday morning remains high.

There will be a good warmup early next week immediately ahead of
the next system set to move through Tuesday and into Wednesday.
This system will have some winter weather potential as well,
although details with this one are even more uncertain than the
weekend system.

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Not overly excited again. There looks to be a narrow deformation type band to the north of wherever the upper low temporarily closes off. The system is still too positive tilted to really sling snow back in the cold air. 

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12z Euro with the stronger band in E KS and W MO this run. North of me. Closes the low off briefly by hour 84 over E AR. 

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1 hour ago, JoMo said:

12z Euro with the stronger band in E KS and W MO this run. North of me. Closes the low off briefly by hour 84 over E AR. 

If I'm not mistaken the Euro lead the way on last weekend's system. 

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Interesting that Met. Joe Lauria (FOX 4 KC) was mentioning the fact that models tend to perform worse when there is a lot of "noise" going on. Taking a look in the Pacific, the parade of storms and energy is very chaotic. I think this is what he is alluding to. Trend has been moving more in line with less deep arctic air but increasingly likely that many of us see some snow. Don't see this being "just a cold rain" for any north of US 412 from Tulsa eastward to NE AR. At least that is what I am thinking at this time.  

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34 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

On queue, the NAM kills the snow in NE OK.

I wouldn't jump ship based on the 18z nam, but I would also stop getting my hopes up 5+ days in advance of the storm.

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Just now, MUWX said:

I wouldn't jump ship based on the 18z nam, but I would also stop getting my hopes up 5+ days in advance of the storm.

Haven't had my hopes up about anything with this storm.

One run doesn't kill it but, this is about the time frame that the models had begun to kill off the previous storms.

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Aaaannnddd 18zGFS is taking a north jog too. I've never seen a more unlucky pattern for Tulsa and NE OK in my life! Storms go west, north, south, east..... unbelievable!

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2 hours ago, ouamber said:

Aaaannnddd 18zGFS is taking a north jog too. I've never seen a more unlucky pattern for Tulsa and NE OK in my life! Storms go west, north, south, east..... unbelievable!

Is so depressing I know :( . The terrible luck continues here as well

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So sorry for you guys down there. Believe me we've been down that road many times here in Saint Louis. We are finally getting our due! Hope this active pattern we are all in hits you plenty before Spring hits.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

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Too bad the 12Z ECMWF has really backed off on potential snow amounts for southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.

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46 minutes ago, garfan said:

Too bad the 12Z ECMWF has really backed off on potential snow amounts for southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.

Just like every other model. Its been almost a year exactly since one of these trended in a positive direction as the event neared this area. When it comes to forecasting winter weather in this area, on technique works best, persistence forecasting, forecast the what has been happening until something different actually happens. For all the excitement there has been regarding the next week to 10 days, its now looking cool to cold with a few flurries mixed in, nothing has changed yet.

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This storm in STL this weekend is nowhere near as clear cut as this past storm. Alot of bust potential! Every model was is pretty good agreement for the last one. This one not so much. Classic STL storm coming up. Rain to snow or rain to......nothing. lol

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

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Oh looky now I am seeing thunderstorms and rain for tomorrow night at 34 (banjo anyone? sound familiar yet). I mean how many times can this happen, something has to give eventually right? Ok rant and whines over for now lol

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Hmmmm. Nam entertaining the idea of some snow after all up here. 1-2 inches with a very narrow band of 6 inches. If the low closes off, someone in NE OK/NW AR may get a surprise out of this. Not holding onto my breath though.

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34 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Hmmmm. Nam entertaining the idea of some snow after all up here. 1-2 inches with a very narrow band of 6 inches. If the low closes off, someone in NE OK/NW AR may get a surprise out of this. Not holding onto my breath though.

 

HRRR liking some snow in E OK.

 

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Hmm seems like this forecast is changing again some, I see 26 as a low tonight now and they are saying rain over to freezing rain(with thunder possible) and then snow up until noon tomorrow. Could something maybe surprise us or someone on here, maybe a good possibility?

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The kiss of death, WWA issued for here now from 11 tonight til 8am tomorrow. Lets see if number 4(or 3 now whatever) busts lol. Minor snow and ice accums Tulsa is saying with some thunder possible.

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