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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


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20 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Any idea why those 2 different map views don’t match?   The Kansas view shows a large area of 6+ inches in purple.  The MO view has the purple in MO only.  

Different Ratio Models, Kansas is Kuhera Temp Profile Ratio. MO is 10/1

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Local TV met’s thoughts here in Tulsa.

I can say with some certainty that he’s pretty “over” winter at this point and is pretty pessimistic(with good reason) on snow lately. So take that for what it’s worth.

 

“Just a quick note: 

The snow potential on Sunday is very similar to what we have seen through most of the winter. Flurries and snow showers. Sometimes, in a very cold airmass like this you can get some higher snowfall rates. What I have noticed is that with this type of setup our data goes a little overboard this far out. 

Right now, I do believe it will be rather light and a minor event. Only caveat is that the air is so cold, even the lightest of snow will stick.”

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1 minute ago, StormChazer said:

Local TV met’s thoughts here in Tulsa.

I can say with some certainty that he’s pretty “over” winter at this point and is pretty pessimistic(with good reason) on snow lately. So take that for what it’s worth.

 

“Just a quick note: 

The snow potential on Sunday is very similar to what we have seen through most of the winter. Flurries and snow showers. Sometimes, in a very cold airmass like this you can get some higher snowfall rates. What I have noticed is that with this type of setup our data goes a little overboard this far out. 

Right now, I do believe it will be rather light and a minor event. Only caveat is that the air is so cold, even the lightest of snow will stick.”

Not saying he's wrong, but seems suspect. Although I can't disagree with continuance forecasting 

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Meteorologist Michael Armstrong out of OKC's thoughts on the upcoming storm.

"Many areas have now gone 2 to 3 days below freezing. This will likely have some significant impacts on the upcoming winter storm for this weekend. In other words, greater impacts than earlier winter when warm days led into those."

 

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All I'm asking for is 3 inches of snow here in Tulsa. I'll even take 2-2.5. This is the last shot of the winter and even though it will have been another under-performing season, going out on a high note like this would scratch that 4 year itch that has built up. Not to mention whatever falls we get to enjoy all day Sunday, Monday, and some of Tuesday.

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Could probably bump up those snow totals for N OK a bit given expected snow-liquid ratios >10:1... Likely looking at 13:1 to 16:1 ratios across Southern Missouri/Kansas and Northern Oklahoma, with 17:1 to 20:1 ratios closer to the KC metro. Altogether it is looking increasingly likely that large portions of KS and MO will receive 5-10" totals (with some isolated amounts potentially exceeding 10 inches of snow, especially across SE KS and SW MO). Appears that there could be a pretty tight gradient across NE OK and NW AR, where 2-5"+ could fall, extreme NE OK could get closer to 6-8"... Whereas other parts of those regions could receive more nominal snow accumulations.

Still should have some pause I suppose about higher snow totals existing over SE KS/SW MO (in addition to northern OK's overall snow potential, as well) given the differing solutions presented by the NAM and CMC (mainly the NAM though, as has been discussed) as opposed to the GFS/Euro solutions.

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SGF has dropped totals by 1-2 inches area wide, by their own admission they are going on the low side of guidance. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Hopefully the AFD will shed some light on their thinking.

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21 minutes ago, MUWX said:

SGF has dropped totals by 1-2 inches area wide, by their own admission they are going on the low side of guidance. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Hopefully the AFD will shed some light on their thinking.

And the disappointment begins...

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Just now, JMT417 said:

And the disappointment begins...

I wouldn't get too worried about it yet. AFD says to expect changes over the next 24 hours. One thing of interest, they are going with the NAM short term.

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