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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


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Friday morning looks interesting in N OK.

NAM shows .34 in total liquid precip but has most of that as freezing rain or sleet. Tulsa NWS says NAM temps may be too warm as it warms above freezing after noon.

3K has .14 liquid equivalent and all of it freezing rain or sleet and keeps temps dropping all day.

GFS at .11 with all of it freezing rain or sleet N of I244. It doesn’t have the cold air as far S. GFS showed this system I think on Monday as all snow then dropped it.

V3 keeps measurable precip east of HWY 69 with trace amounts of freezing rain. It is further N with cold air than the GFS too.

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...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY...


Benton-Carroll-Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-
Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-Delaware-Creek-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville, 
Eureka Springs, Pawhuska, Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, Miami, 
Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore, Pryor, Grove, Jay, and Sapulpa
226 PM CST Thu Feb 14 2019

* WHAT...A mixture of freezing rain and sleet is expected
beginning late tonight through the day Friday. Total sleet
accumulations of a few tenths of an inch, and ice accumulations
of a light glaze to near a tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
generally along and north of a line from Tulsa Oklahoma to
Bentonville Arkansas.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 6 PM CST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, including
during the morning commute on Friday across northeast Oklahoma.
Bridges and overpasses will be the first to be impacted by any
slick surfaces. 

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8 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

That advisory will probly push further south, and bust number 6 will take place lol. Ground is just way too warm again, it will probly be another 33-34 degree cold a** rain like every other crappy storm has been this season haha.

You were right! They expanded it south one county.

Its 2-3 degrees colder than expected too.

Bartlesville schools closed. Sleet mixed in as far S as Owasso. Sleet in Owasso is very light and very small though.

Elevates surfaces glazed here too.

At 29-30 degrees right now, we’re close to roads icing. 2-3 degree drop and it would be ugly.

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That was predictable, I guess I called that one lol. Advisory until 6pm but its just another cold drizzle at 33!!

Our KC friends said its snowing heavily up there, simply amazing how many times we have been screwed this winter. Such a sad sad shame with all the moisture that's been around, oh well. I am so so ready for spring

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Amber did Tulsa put you in an advisory? Total bust here so far, been 36 and raining good all day.

One of these times we are going to get nailed and no one is going to take Tulsa NWS seriously because of all their boo boo's and busts. I know it sounds rude but I have never lived somewhere and seen so many bad forecasts in my life, it's been this way for the last 6 years living here...terrible terrible forecasting from them usually. And I thought Mt.Holly was bad in Jersey growing up there lol

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28 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Amber did Tulsa put you in an advisory? Total bust here so far, been 36 and raining good all day.

One of these times we are going to get nailed and no one is going to take Tulsa NWS seriously because of all their boo boo's and busts. I know it sounds rude but I have never lived somewhere and seen so many bad forecasts in my life, it's been this way for the last 6 years living here...terrible terrible forecasting from them usually. And I thought Mt.Holly was bad in Jersey growing up there lol

I think you vastly underestimate how difficult it is to forecast winter weather in this area 

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41 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Amber did Tulsa put you in an advisory? Total bust here so far, been 36 and raining good all day.

One of these times we are going to get nailed and no one is going to take Tulsa NWS seriously because of all their boo boo's and busts. I know it sounds rude but I have never lived somewhere and seen so many bad forecasts in my life, it's been this way for the last 6 years living here...terrible terrible forecasting from them usually. And I thought Mt.Holly was bad in Jersey growing up there lol

Yea Tulsa was under an advisory, but it's just freezing drizzle right now. No biggie.  *crossing my fingers* for Tuesday!

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8 minutes ago, ouamber said:

Yea Tulsa was under an advisory, but it's just freezing drizzle right now. No biggie.  *crossing my fingers* for Tuesday!

Yeah, I must say this is the last storm of the season that I'm going to follow or feel any excitement leading up to it. If this churns out nothing for us, then unless something is a day out I'm going to need to recharge until next winter.

 

That being said, here's the EURO. Interestingly enough, it keep Tulsa JUST BARELY above freezing for a few hours during moderate precip, so if that snow line inches over 30 miles, Tulsa looks to get 4-6 inches. I know amounts are trivial and useless to get focused on this far out, but just worth noting.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019021512_120_483_215.png

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These models are making me really nervous. Every single one has Tulsa RIGHT on the line. I know models don’t handle shallow air well, so my hope is that they’re underdoing it right now but I swear if it’s 33-34 and raining on Tuesday while 30 miles west it’s snowing I’m going to officially admit that the snow gods hate NE OK.

That being said, if they are underdoing the cold air, then that honestly sets Tulsa up for an ice storm, which to be honest, at this point, my winter weather starved self would welcome.

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