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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


JoMo
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yeah that system is going to be a pain. A narrow area of very heavy snow would be possible assuming everything comes together just right. Unfortunate that the cold air will largely be bottled up to the north and it will depend on system dynamics to produce that small area.

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8 minutes ago, JoMo said:

yeah that system is going to be a pain. A narrow area of very heavy snow would be possible assuming everything comes together just right. Unfortunate that the cold air will largely be bottled up to the north and it will depend on system dynamics to produce that small area.

Completely agree. It will be one of those systems where it will be 36 or 37 and snowing but will take 1-2"/hour rates to accumulate on roads.

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2 hours ago, StormChazer said:

When should we start talking seriously about snow chances on Thurs/Fri? Gfs and nam seem to think this thing can drop a decent amount of snow somewhere in OK.

I'll probably hit the wind threat in my forecasts tomorrow with a low-chance of a rain/snow mix as precipitation ends from west to east across Central/Eastern OK into Texoma. I won't even mention accumulations (if at all) until Wednesday at the earliest. A cold core upper low is a weatherman's woe - and usually, do produce big surprises in the winter precipitation department. Combined with the anticipated wind, it wouldn't take much snow to create 'official' blizzard conditions in a few spots. 

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I think someone between Abilene and Ft. Worth has a decent shot of some accumulating, heavy wet snow Thursday late afternoon into Friday morning. Exactly where is highly uncertain and it’s likely to be a small area with the right overlap of heavy rates and cold mid and upper level temps on the west/northwest side of the upper low. I think most of Oklahoma will be too far north for this one (again!), but ULLs are notoriously tricky to forecast so don’t be surprised if there are some last minute adjustments. One thing that looks clear and will be widespread will be the WINDS on the backside of this thing. Widespread 50-60mph wind gusts look likely west of I35 in OK and Texas.

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Minus November, it seems we are following the same crazy weird pattern swings like we have been stuck in the last 4 years now! Same ole same ole, warm chilly warm chilly nonsense. Moisture has been there for some time now but it's just these weird temp. patterns. Its like clockwork every darn year it seems, at least so far again. I really hope we don't repeat this pattern yet again this season idk lol. While snow would be awesome for Christmas, I would at least like it to be cold and not balmy like this sighhhh.

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19 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Minus November, it seems we are following the same crazy weird pattern swings like we have been stuck in the last 4 years now! Same ole same ole, warm chilly warm chilly nonsense. Moisture has been there for some time now but it's just these weird temp. patterns. Its like clockwork every darn year it seems, at least so far again. I really hope we don't repeat this pattern yet again this season idk lol. While snow would be awesome for Christmas, I would at least like it to be cold and not balmy like this sighhhh.

I don't think we are destined for the same pattern this year. I want to say December was predicted to be a bit warmer and not as favored for winter weather as Nov and then subsequently Jan/Feb. But I can't remember where I had heard that. Still, if you think about it, we had the small snow event in Nov, and then the very near miss a couple weeks ago, which honestly, the last couple years I don't remember near misses so much as just the storm not getting it's act together until it was in east MO and then into the OH valley, or the storms would go waaaayyyy south giving the gulf coast snow.

This pattern doesn't feel the same to me, but that's just my opinion. It looks like sometime around the new year, give or take a day or two, we might have our next shot at something wintry. So here's to hoping!

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1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

I don't think we are destined for the same pattern this year. I want to say December was predicted to be a bit warmer and not as favored for winter weather as Nov and then subsequently Jan/Feb. But I can't remember where I had heard that. Still, if you think about it, we had the small snow event in Nov, and then the very near miss a couple weeks ago, which honestly, the last couple years I don't remember near misses so much as just the storm not getting it's act together until it was in east MO and then into the OH valley, or the storms would go waaaayyyy south giving the gulf coast snow.

This pattern doesn't feel the same to me, but that's just my opinion. It looks like sometime around the new year, give or take a day or two, we might have our next shot at something wintry. So here's to hoping!

Yea man November was pretty insane, I have hope also though it's early. Weather wise, its there for sure but the temperature swings just feel the same as they have the past 4 seasons so we will see. I will start getting nervous once mid january arrives and we have had zilch lol, of course its weather one good big perfect track can dump a seasons worth of snow if things come together perfectly ya know.

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