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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


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12z GFS is 8 degrees cooler in Tulsa than the 06z run with 36 vs 44 Friday at 06z

12z GFS still 6 degrees warmer in Tulsa than the 12z NAM at 36 vs 30 at that same time.

12z GEM warmer than the 12z NAM at 33 vs 30 but cooler than the GFS with 33 vs 36.

GEM seems to be a good middle ground right now.

 

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Hey everyone and welcome to winter.

I think the main thing we can sort of agree on at this point is that we are really in a good position across much of N OK, S MO, and N AR to see a nice snow. Fine details need to be worked out... and that includes whether or not we get a warm nose aloft that turns snow to sleet city or freezing rain. I think we are sitting better than normal at this range. Once we get this system better sampled I hope the models start to converge on a solution that is more consistent. 

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Hey all, been reading this thread for a few years. Finally decided to join and chime in from time to time. While I'm certainly not as knowledgeable as many on here, I received my degree in Geoscience from Mississippi State and also got my (often debated at times) Certificate in Broadcast Meteorology about 4 years ago now. I interned at KWCH and worked with Rodney Price and Ross Jansen on the weekends. Having said that I don't work in the field as I decided to go in a different direction but still have a passion for weather as others here. To be honest I've become rusty and I'm not as sharp as I was 3 or 4 years ago. I just miss talking weather with others and figured I would add on to the conversation from time to time when I have the chance. Oh, I live in Rose Hill, which is just Southeast of Wichita. This is where I got my display name. 

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4 minutes ago, RocketWX said:

Hey all, been reading this thread for a few years. Finally decided to join and chime in from time to time. While I'm certainly not as knowledgeable as many on here, I received my degree in Geoscience from Mississippi State and also got my (often debated at times) Certificate in Broadcast Meteorology about 4 years ago now. I interned at KWCH and worked with Rodney Price and Ross Jansen on the weekends. Having said that I don't work in the field as I decided to go in a different direction but still have a passion for weather as others here. To be honest I've become rusty and I'm not as sharp as I was 3 or 4 years ago. I just miss talking weather with others and figured I would add on to the conversation from time to time when I have the chance. Oh, I live in Rose Hill, which is just Southeast of Wichita. This is where I got my display name. 

Finally another SC Kansas reader! Welcome aboard. 

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Welcome Aboard Everyone! :santa:

It's so nice having something to track, even if it makes me pull my hair out! Seriously, what has it been since NE OK and SW MO has had a Winter Storm Warning? Like 5000 days? J/K...almost! :lol: 

Kidding aside, I hope that HP can stay in a good position long enough to dump on all of us! :sled:

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Not really buying the GFS temps at the moment. But it comes down to how quickly the high to the north moves east. NAM keeps it more overhead and therefore keeps a more northerly component to the surface winds, and hence colder temps. GFS moves it out quicker and winds come around more easterly. 

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Been watching the forum for a period myself. I find a lot of useful information from the people that post.  I agree with most that the GFS has the temps to warm. My guy feeling is that the freezing line will set up somewhere just South of the Okc metro area,

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Looking at the 12z Euro run in real-time and comparing it to the GFS/CMC models...the Euro is farther west with the high pressure, putting it in SW Iowa at 00z Saturday. The GFS/CMC have it over northeastern Iowa at that time. All the models have the high pressure at or near 1038 mb. 

The end result of all that is that for most of our region, Friday may be dry. The lone exception would be across S & SE OK, where light rain could breakout during the day. 

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1 minute ago, rockchalk83 said:

Looking at the 12z Euro run in real-time and comparing it to the GFS/CMC models...the Euro is farther west with the high pressure, putting it in SW Iowa at 00z Saturday. The GFS/CMC have it over northeastern Iowa at that time. All the models have the high pressure at or near 1038 mb. 

Wouldn't that give us a colder solution?

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2 hours ago, ouamber said:

Welcome Aboard Everyone! :santa:

It's so nice having something to track, even if it makes me pull my hair out! Seriously, what has it been since NE OK and SW MO has had a Winter Storm Warning? Like 5000 days? J/K...almost! :lol: 

Kidding aside, I hope that HP can stay in a good position long enough to dump on all of us! :sled:

NWS SGF just tweeted this

Screenshot_2018-12-04-14-05-46.png

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