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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


JoMo
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Interesting that the EURO has a stronger winter storm Tuesday/Wednesday than the GFS. That tends to lead more credence that there might be something there. Not that I want it. EURO lays down some horrific icing numbers. Of course those are just one run's numbers... but I don't want that much ice ever. 2007 was enough for me. 

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The previous few days of GFS runs all showed KC getting a healthy amount of snow (3"+, something KC hasn't seen in four years)... then the 18Z run comes out and shifts everything further south. Probably just a weird run, but it is definitely odd to see such a shift in a <84 hour forecast. 

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50 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

The previous few days of GFS runs all showed KC getting a healthy amount of snow (3"+, something KC hasn't seen in four years)... then the 18Z run comes out and shifts everything further south. Probably just a weird run, but it is definitely odd to see such a shift in a <84 hour forecast. 

I think the south trend has been apparent for a few runs now. Not feeling good about seeing anything in Columbia. 

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11 hours ago, MUWX said:

I think the south trend has been apparent for a few runs now. Not feeling good about seeing anything in Columbia. 

The overall trend has indeed been for the heavier swath of snow to be a bit further south, but that specific run was a bit more dramatic with its shift and knocking down of totals. Likewise the very next run shifted back north. Probably won't have anything nailed down better until Monday night, or even Tuesday when we know where the best frontogenesis is occurring.

As per usual with winter systems now, my expectations for this storm have gradually kept declining.

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4 hours ago, jojo762 said:

The overall trend has indeed been for the heavier swath of snow to be a bit further south, but that specific run was a bit more dramatic with its shift and knocking down of totals. Likewise the very next run shifted back north. Probably won't have anything nailed down better until Monday night, or even Tuesday when we know where the best frontogenesis is occurring.

As per usual with winter systems now, my expectations for this storm have gradually kept declining.

Did you get anything this morning? It's not going to amount to much in Columbia, but we are getting moderate snow right now 

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3 hours ago, MUWX said:

Did you get anything this morning? It's not going to amount to much in Columbia, but we are getting moderate snow right now 

Yeah, I ended up with 2-2.5" in Overland Park... accumulated fairly quickly within about 2 1/2 to 3 hours. Always great to go from expecting a dusting to getting a couple inches. 

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4 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Meh lol...enjoy again JoMo! I did see a rogue flurry here off and on, same ole same ole though haha

Yah same ole song and dance here in NWA.  Just came back from driving in heavy snow around the MO state line up to Monett area.  Maybe an inch or so there.   Not many flakes fell here lol.

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8 hours ago, GSwizzle83 said:

Wound up with about 3/4" here in Monett but the roads sort of flash froze making for those horrific accident scenes all over the news and social media. 

Tomorrow's system confounds me. I will be glad when we can get it fully sampled. 

What a difference a few days make... Just a few model runs ago we had a full on lee-side cyclone with a relatively strong band of frontogenesis to the north resulting in a nearly all-day snow event with an impressive band of snow (what could've been 6"+) somewhere across KS/MO, now we are left with no lee-side cyclone, a fast-moving open wave, and modest mid-level frontogenesis resulting in a few hours of snow with MAYBE 3" for someone, probably north of I70. Sad, after it had looked so good not too long ago. That's anything past 2011 for ya...

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20 hours ago, jojo762 said:

What a difference a few days make... Just a few model runs ago we had a full on lee-side cyclone with a relatively strong band of frontogenesis to the north resulting in a nearly all-day snow event with an impressive band of snow (what could've been 6"+) somewhere across KS/MO, now we are left with no lee-side cyclone, a fast-moving open wave, and modest mid-level frontogenesis resulting in a few hours of snow with MAYBE 3" for someone, probably north of I70. Sad, after it had looked so good not too long ago. That's anything past 2011 for ya...

I feel you on this one. I'm not sure we are even going to see flakes on Columbia. The weekend storm looks interesting, but so did this one. Probably going to fall apart by Saturday night. 

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23 minutes ago, ouamber said:

Just had some freezing drizzle here in downtown Tulsa. 27 degrees. NWS expanded the advisory as well.

Been freezing raining here for a bit now off and on. Never broke past 28 here today, was odd though cause it wasnt freezing on anything at all for a while there now all of a sudden it is. Advisory up til midnight here, be careful out there tonight!

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Just misty here now, had 1 round of heavier drizzle this afternoon that lasted about 15 minutes lol. Odd stuff, sticking on elevated surfaces only even with it being fairly cold again recently. Looks like the bulk of stuff is just south of here....anyone else ready for spring? Just a boring winter with non stop misses so I'm done, lost all hope now.

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This seems to want to be the year of the ice. Not major ice storms that cripple regions for days or weeks, but regular freezing drizzle/light freezing rain events. I try not to get too worked up about these events so far in advance, but this one is a bit different because of the prolonged nature of the event signaled on the models. Will see if they dry out as they get closer to the event, but so far there seems to be a slight uptick in amounts each time. EURO is putting down .2" of ice across much of S MO. NAM seems to concur with greater than .1" amounts. Will see I guess. Model watching continues. 

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