Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

25 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

People bashing last December have bad memories.  The event from the 14th to 16th was pretty awesome for almost everyone as some arctic fronts crashed the band onto the South shore several times and we also hooked up a nice GB connection for a time.   We all did pretty well with that one and there was also an event about 4 days before that one that was decent.  January was a pretty big letdown though after a solid start to the season but the usual suspects (tug hill, southern tier) had a couple big hits both early and late in the month.  

http://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=C

 

Central and Eastern New York had a much better winter than Western New york, but Yeah December had 30.1" of snow which is right around normal. 

[tim123]

Gfs hitting Rochester good with lake snow

[Syrmax]

10 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

May actually get to the city of Syracuse for a time as winds veer enough to the NW, but a very brief visit, as winds once again align out of the W-WNW quickly sending whatever is occurring, North of the immediate CNY area.  H700 is chock full of goodness throughout the period with ample moisture throughout the column but as many have alluded to, temps are still in question, with a lot of mention of mixing in both disc's from both nws offices.  Last couple of Novembers have been interesting right around Thanksgiving time, last yr, although  a week later, we had the first substantial event, but after that one, there were no more, lol, as the Winter as a whole was a complete dud.  Still 6 days out so things will change, so lets hope their for the better, and not for the worse.

How soon we forget. Last winter season we had our biggest snowstorm (until March) in CNY around Nov. 21-22 (week before Thanksgiving)...the hybrid synoptic system that morphed into LES...close to 20" here and the ITH to BGM area actually got more with a freakishly persistent LES setup (for them). March featured a cold month with the Blizzard...again around 20-24" in much of CNY.  In between was fairly benign with a craptastic December warmup around Xmas as I recall.  Checking my records we had 5.0" on Gnd Xmas morning though we were on the way down from 9" a few day earlier and just about lost it all by 12/27.  I skied with my son New Year's Eve day at Song Mt and conditions were great - esp compared to prior New Year's Eve where Song Mt wasn't even fully open with no snowcover other than on the trails. Net, with 2 major storms of 2 ft plus...and seasonally avg snowfall, not too bad. Though it did warm up often and crush snowcover for the snowmobilers, which may be what you remember most?

[Syrmax]

00z GooFuS trying to gin up a Black Friday storm...verbatim it looks a bit late in winding up for us in CNY WNY but something to watch. Hope the Tug has fun with their lake snow this weekend. Expecting some glancing lake snow at best down here where the people with teeth live.

[tim123]

Gfs showing good snows north of thruway from Niagara falls east to syr north into tug

[wolfie09]

All I care about is that wind direction 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

How soon we forget. Last winter season we had our biggest snowstorm (until March) in CNY around Nov. 21-22 (week before Thanksgiving)...the hybrid synoptic system that morphed into LES...close to 20" here and the ITH to BGM area actually got more with a freakishly persistent LES setup (for them). March featured a cold month with the Blizzard...again around 20-24" in much of CNY.  In between was fairly benign with a craptastic December warmup around Xmas as I recall.  Checking my records we had 5.0" on Gnd Xmas morning though we were on the way down from 9" a few day earlier and just about lost it all by 12/27.  I skied with my son New Year's Eve day at Song Mt and conditions were great - esp compared to prior New Year's Eve where Song Mt wasn't even fully open with no snowcover other than on the trails. Net, with 2 major storms of 2 ft plus...and seasonally avg snowfall, not too bad. Though it did warm up often and crush snowcover for the snowmobilers, which may be what you remember most?

Thee worst Snowmobile season to date for me was by far, 16-17, so hoping for a nice change but won't hold breath! 14-15 was absolutely incredible but those winters are far and few between.

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[lakeeffectkid383]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still a bit torn on what to do for early next week. GFS continues to be fairly robust verbatim on a Tug LES event, but the Euro is waffling. Thinking of the Redfield area Sun-Tues.

Didn't realize it was so hard to find a hotel out there  

I’d wait for another event, to me nothing looks overly impressive. Maybe you’ll catch a foot or so and maybe that’s worth chasing to you but if I were you I’d wait another month. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, I'm wavering because I'm not sure that's enough of an event for me to spend money/time on, even though I'll be in Upstate NY this weekend for something else.

That's probably a bit snooty considering that I only saw like 3" all year last season in DC, but I did live in SNE once. Gotta have standards lol. 

Lol I actually live in Buffalo so to me a foot isn’t even worth chasing, didn’t realize you guys had it so bad down there last year, didn’t mean to sound snooty lol, guess I’m just spoiled up here. 

[BuffaloWeather]

59 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still a bit torn on what to do for early next week. GFS continues to be fairly robust verbatim on a Tug LES event, but the Euro is waffling. Thinking of the Redfield area Sun-Tues.

Didn't realize it was so hard to find a hotel out there  

Yeah, until other models jump on board I wouldn't even consider it. Have to wait until the higher res models come in to get a better idea, but only the GFS is showing decent LES right now.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Still a bit torn on what to do for early next week. GFS continues to be fairly robust verbatim on a Tug LES event, but the Euro is waffling. Thinking of the Redfield area Sun-Tues.

Didn't realize it was so hard to find a hotel out there  

Im not convinced theres gonna be a TUG HILL mega band especially considering that it's being forecasted by a global model 6 days out. If that Completely stacked cut off upper LVL H500 L.P. sits and spins over let's say, Montreal instead of Ottawa, then all bets are off as there will be a NW-WNW. If it's gonna happen it better happen when this system is winding up in Ontario with W-WSW flow aloft before everything shifts to the South pretty quickly with the passage of CF. I just think there's still quite a bit to be ironed out before thinking about the crazy totals I have seen on Pivotal and Tidbits.

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

However, long range looks fantastic for early ski lovers and Winter enthusiasts. Lots of Snow and cold with everything coming together for a nice period from Thanksgiving and Christmas. Indices look favorable, and so does the MJO as it head's back towards phase 1-2. Although currently weak, its forecasted to gain strength, as a large scale upward motion wave moves across NA during weeks 2-4 so it could get quite interesting perhaps record breaking if everything falls into place.

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[BuffaloWeather]

5 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

However, long range looks fantastic for early ski lovers and Winter enthusiasts. Lots of Snow and cold with everything coming together for a nice period from Thanksgiving and Christmas. Indices look favorable, and so does the MJO as it head's back towards phase 1-2. Although currently weak, its forecasted to gain strength, as a large scale upward motion wave moves across NA during weeks 2-4 so it could get quite interesting perhaps record breaking if everything falls into place.

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Last frame, if it works, shows what I'm talking about as it coincides with this upcoming weekend system and beyond. There is a bit of a lag when it comes to phase changes of the MJO and temp composites don't always work out that's why they change so frequently. 

This H500 view shows it even better in its latter frames as it shows the Arctic cooling as a whole with ridges popping in the NAO region and another in and around the Aleutians so, to me, it looks good.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Oh no not you! I meant that I probably sounded snooty saying that a foot of powder wasn't worth chasing. It was a horrific season down here last year. I actually went to Portland to chase a storm for the first time. Now I'm anxious for the next big one to chase. 

Thanks everyone for the feedback! Love how beautiful Upstate NY is, but I've never seen LES. 

I wish I could experience LES for the first time. LES in the eastern lakes is the best, the rates you can get off Ontario and Erie you literally cannot see in any other city. I've seen 8" in an hour, some places in the tug have experienced 12" in one hour with the 3 lake connection they get.

[Thinksnow18]

You know I'm not as educated on the models, I know enough to have a conversation is about all, but why am I not seeing the ups and downs in the next 15 days others are? The 12z GFS is wall to wall cold fromantic the Sunday period out to 384 hours and several synoptic systems near us during the runs, and that would match up nicely with the predicted AO and NAO through that period as they stay negative throughout that same period. Any thoughts?

[BuffaloWeather]

17 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

You know I'm not as educated on the models, I know enough to have a conversation is about all, but why am I not seeing the ups and downs in the next 15 days others are? The 12z GFS is wall to wall cold fromantic the Sunday period out to 384 hours and several synoptic systems near us during the runs, and that would match up nicely with the predicted AO and NAO through that period as they stay negative throughout that same period. Any thoughts?

Because that's one model and only its operational model as well. The European is the superior model in its verification scores on average. This website will explain verification scores.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml

Even with the latest upgrade the Euro is the far superior model. The ECMWF's superior forecasts were largely a result of a more sophisticated algorithm being run on two supercomputers that rank as the 25th and 26th most powerful in the world. 

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/ywwydy/irma-and-harvey-are-putting-experimental-new-forecasting-tech-to-the-test

These indices make you question what the GFS is thinking in the long range.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

Then you have the Euro at the end of its run showing a north american torch, ENS and weeklies back this as well. I'd say the GFS might be wrong.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2017111400&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=301

[BuffaloWeather]

THe WPO, EPO, and PNA are what we need to focus on. The Pacific is not cooperating. Embedded pictures not working for some reason.

http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/wpo_pos.php

Positive WPO composites

DEC:

 

Jan:

[BuffaloWeather]

Even if you have the AO and NAO working in your favor, unless the Pacific cooperates there is no way to get sustained cold.

http://madusweather.com/teleconnections/

[lakeeffectkid383]

Just as many predicted the GFS caved to the euro in the 00z run, cold is gone by Tuesday and we warm up. Marginal lake effect event this weekend and then we’re right back to average temps with some rain showers by middle of next week just in time for Turkey day! 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

lol, that's why you never follow the GFS, as it's a horrific model in the long range. I don't see enough cold air now on either the GFS or Euro, and it begins. Looks great days out, then as we get closer, disappears. Follow the EURO and ONLY the EURO.
Even GFS's indices are completely off as they coincide with its long range output. Thought we'd have a white Thanksgiving but that's looking less and less likely

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

Joe Bastatdi is completely on his own against the world with his cold Nov-Dec.

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

However I will say this about the euro, last year it was not very good at all, and that's just a fact, but it's still beat out to GFS and that's funny!

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[Buffalo Bumble]

21 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

lol, that's why you never follow the GFS, as it's a horrific model in the long range. I don't see enough cold air now on either the GFS or Euro, and it begins. Looks great days out, then as we get closer, disappears. Follow the EURO and ONLY the EURO.
Even GFS's indices are completely off as they coincide with its long range output. Thought we'd have a white Thanksgiving but that's looking less and less likely

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You nailed it. Was just going to post the same thing. Good early season lesson to not get excited by long range runs of GFS, especially when Euro’s not on board. 

[Thinksnow18]

FWIW at least we are below average temperature wise for the month and I don't see that changing...looking yesterday to thus point and counting yesterday as well we have 9 days below average 4 above and one right on the daily average, we will go above today, thence below tomorrow and Friday, and then kimmy da exchange days for a while...cpc had us at better odds for above average for the month so there's that at least.

[BuffaloWeather]

Positive WPO and EPO in the long range leads to this. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Perfect match

[CNY-LES FREAK]

This weekend's Cutter doesn't even bring enough cold air down on it's NW side to get snow and it's a pretty substantial storm system, pressure wise, but there will be wind and a lot of it! Was looking forward to our first substantial les event and a beauty at that but that is now a thing of the past nut Bastardi keeps showi g the cold the next to weeks and beyond. It's funny as when the Goofus agrees with his forecast he doesn't bash it, but God forbid it's against his forecast, lol. He hasn't even mentioned the differences between both globals. Forget about the Canadian, UKMet and Brazilian.

Listen, it's November and to be honest, I'd rather have normal conditions as opposed to below normal conditions with snow. The last few yrs it seems like every time we have an early start to the season, it warms up just in time for the holidays. I think I've seen more white Turkey days, than i have on Xmas. Even 2014-15, I believe it warmed up just in time for Christmas, but then went into the tank for quite a while. My favorite Winter, no doubt, to date and a close second is 02-03.

10.1" Fell on Christmas day on 2002-03 and that was just magical. An incredible yr from start to finish, even with the brief warm-up. It snowed every day, a trace or more, the whole month of January, and I'm NOT exaggerating at all as records can be looked at. Perhaps I will show that January. Don't know if anyone else remembers It, but I sure do, lol.

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[BuffaloWeather]

Yeah I like early winters so much more than late winters. Late Nov to January are my favorite times for snowfall. Once it hits late feb/march, unless it's a really big storm I don't really enjoy it. It's been 3 years since a good Nov/Dec for our area in WNY. 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

I forgot all about 95-96 I lived in New Jersey and that was an incredible Winter for NYC standards. The Blizzard of 96' is a top 5 event for the megalopolis and man it was a serious system and nothing to laugh about especially if you got caught in it, like my Father and I, along with my big brother.

I lived in Jersey City at the time and my Mom was in the Hospital in Peterson. I believe it was about a 25 mile drive and we were going to visit her. I specifically told my Father, if we go Pops, we may be sleepong with her in chairs and my father, being who he was, didn't even think twice, laughed as if I was kidding, so I said OK, as I was psyched knowing what was imminent within a few hrs. We were there for about 45 minutes when the event began and in an hr there was at least 2" otg already and I said, "we gotta go NOW if we want to make it home and not get stranded on the Turnpike. It took us 3.5 hrs to get home, and like I said, we got stuck on the Turnpike, dead center lane and we weren't the only ones. We managed to make it but to this day, even living where I do now, can't compare anything I've experienced so far in the 15yrs I've loved here, to the Blizzard conditions that were present during The Blizzard of 96'!

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